PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Murray State faces Alcorn State on 10 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, with the model designating Murray State as the clear favourite because of its 2-0 record, 93.5 points scored per game and only 67.5 points allowed, placing it 58th in the league, while Alcorn State sits at 375th with a 0-2 record, 70.5 points scored and 96.5 points allowed. Murray State has won its only home game 1-0, scoring 93.0 points and conceding 71.0, and has gone 3-2 in its last five games, highlighted by a 93-71 victory over Northwestern St. and a 94-64 win away at Tennessee State, though it lost 79-92 at home to Illinois (Chi.) in March. Alcorn State's sole road outing was a 58-99 loss to Ole Miss, and its last five games were 1-4, with defeats to Howard, Ole Miss and Prairie View A&M. The head-to-head record shows no prior meetings. Pythia projects a 97-65 score, a 162.3 total, with a 99% probability that Murray State will win and a 1% chance for Alcorn State; the model favours Murray State and assigns a 0% chance that the game will go to overtime. The next game will see Murray State maintain its early-season dominance.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 93.5 | 67.5 | 161.0 | +26.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (1) | 93.0 | 71.0 | 164.0 | +22.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 94.0 | 64.0 | 158.0 | +30.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.8 | 79.6 | 158.4 | -0.8 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 86.4 | 77.8 | 164.2 | +8.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 80.4 | 89.7 | 170.1 | -9.3 | 29% |
| vs Similar (16) | 82.4 | 77.7 | 160.1 | +4.8 | 62% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 84.1 | 72.0 | 156.1 | +12.1 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 70.5 | 96.5 | 167.0 | -26.0 | 0% |
| Season at home (1) | 83.0 | 94.0 | 177.0 | -11.0 | 0% |
| Season away (1) | 58.0 | 99.0 | 157.0 | -41.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 68.8 | 78.5 | 147.3 | -9.7 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 64.4 | 81.2 | 145.6 | -16.8 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (26) | 65.8 | 81.2 | 147.1 | -15.4 | 23% |
| vs Similar (2) | 84.5 | 77.0 | 161.5 | +7.5 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 70.5 | 65.0 | 135.5 | +5.5 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.2 | 36.1 | 75.3 | +3.0 | 63% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 40.2 | 34.6 | 74.8 | +5.6 | 81% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 38.0 | 37.9 | 75.9 | +0.1 | 43% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.6 | 35.0 | 72.6 | +2.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.4 | 39.2 | 77.6 | -0.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 36.7 | 39.9 | 76.6 | -3.1 | 57% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 38.6 | 36.6 | 75.1 | +2.0 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 43.0 | 31.4 | 74.4 | +11.6 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.4 | 38.0 | 69.4 | -6.6 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 at home (11) | 31.5 | 34.4 | 65.9 | -2.8 | 18% | - |
| Last 30 away (19) | 31.3 | 40.1 | 71.4 | -8.8 | 21% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.4 | 36.2 | 66.6 | -5.8 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 28.0 | 37.8 | 65.8 | -9.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (26) | 30.6 | 38.7 | 69.3 | -8.0 | 15% | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 35.5 | 43.5 | 79.0 | -8.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 37.0 | 24.0 | 61.0 | +13.0 | 100% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | H | Northwestern St. | 93-71 |
| 02/11/26 | A | Tennessee State | 94-64 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Illinois (Chi.) | 79-92 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Bradley | 78-87 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Evansville | 88-75 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Illinois State | 61-78 |
| 15/02/26 | H | Belmont | 70-87 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Indiana State | 74-72 |
| 10/02/26 | H | Northern Iowa | 60-89 |
| 07/02/26 | A | Southern Illinois | 91-81 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/26 | H | Howard | 83-94 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Ole Miss | 58-99 |
| 10/03/26 | A | Prairie View A&M | 56-65 |
| 09/03/26 | A | Alabama State | 77-65 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 48-83 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Miss. Valley St. | 67-64 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Prairie View A&M | 51-72 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Texas Southern | 87-92 OT |
| 21/02/26 | H | Jackson State | 83-65 |
| 17/02/26 | H | Florida A&M | 78-86 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 93.5 | 93.0 | 94.0 |
| Allowed / game | 67.5 | 71.0 | 64.0 |
| Point differential | +26.0 | +22.0 | +30.0 |
| Avg total | 161.0 | 164.0 | 158.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LL | 0% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 70.5 | 83.0 | 58.0 |
| Allowed / game | 96.5 | 94.0 | 99.0 |
| Point differential | -26.0 | -11.0 | -41.0 |
| Avg total | 167.0 | 177.0 | 157.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Drake | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 88.0 | 58.0 | +30.0 |
| 2 |  Illinois (Chi.) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 58.3 | +27.3 |
| 3 | Murray State | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 93.5 | 67.5 | +26.0 |
| 4 |  Belmont | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 73.5 | 49.5 | +24.0 |
| 5 |  Valparaiso | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 81.5 | 69.0 | +12.5 |
| 6 |  Evansville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 75.3 | 73.0 | +2.3 |
| 7 |  Southern Illinois | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 87.5 | 70.0 | +17.5 |
| 8 |  Northern Iowa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 94.5 | 84.0 | +10.5 |
| 9 |  Indiana State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 69.5 | 72.0 | -2.5 |
| 10 |  Illinois State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 81.3 | 73.7 | +7.7 |
| 11 |  Bradley | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 60.7 | 55.3 | +5.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.0 | 62.7 | +17.3 |
| 2 |  Prairie View A&M | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.0 | 74.3 | +9.7 |
| 3 |  Grambling St. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.5 | 90.0 | -14.5 |
| 4 |  Florida A&M | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 82.0 | 78.7 | +3.3 |
| 5 |  Texas Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 91.0 | -15.0 |
| 6 |  Jackson State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 62.0 | 86.3 | -24.3 |
| 7 |  Bethune-Cookman | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 69.7 | 84.7 | -15.0 |
| 8 |  Alabama State | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 71.5 | 88.0 | -16.5 |
| 9 |  Miss. Valley St. | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 60.5 | 80.5 | -20.0 |
| 10 |  Southern Univ. | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 64.7 | 88.7 | -24.0 |
| 11 | Alcorn State | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 70.5 | 96.5 | -26.0 |
| 12 |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 57.0 | 107.5 | -50.5 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Murray State | 51 | 43 | 94 |
| Alcorn State | 30 | 27 | 57 |
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