PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Murray State vs Northwestern St. Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 87-64
Projected total 150.7
Final 93-71
42-39 51-32
Position#58
Record1-0
FormLWLLW
Points / game94.0
Allowed / game64.0
Murray State 🏆
USA
Vs
97%
■ MURR 97%■ NORT 3%
Pythia win probability
Northwestern St.
USA
Position#380
Record0-2
FormLLLLL
Points / game54.5
Allowed / game84.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Murray State faces Northwestern St. on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Murray State at 97% versus 3% for Northwestern St.; the high probability stems from Murray State's 1-0 record, 94.0 points per game and only 64.0 allowed, placing them 66th, while Northwestern St. sits 368th with 54.5 points scored and 84.5 allowed. Murray State's single game shows a solid offensive output, and their last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent 94-64 victory over Tennessee State and a 79-92 loss to Illinois (Chi.) at home. Northwestern St. has gone 0-2 all season, 0-2 on the road, and five straight losses, including a 44-82 defeat to Mississippi St., a 65-87 loss to Baylor, and a 47-61 loss to Nicholls State. In their head-to-head history the teams have met once, with the most recent game noted in the record. Pythia projects a 87-64 score, 150.7 total points, and a 52% chance that Murray State will cover the home line of -22.5; the over on the 153.5 line has a 43% probability, and the game has a 1% chance of overtime. The next game will see Murray State maintain its early season momentum against a struggling Northwestern St. squad.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State winWon
97.3%fair 1.03
Best odds1.01
Implied96.3%
Edge+1.1pp
Northwestern St. winLost
2.7%fair 37.37
Best odds26.00
Implied3.7%
Edge-1.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
81-74
81
74
+7
H04/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
91-81
91
81
+10
A07/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
60-89
60
89
-29
H10/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
74-72
74
72
+2
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
61-78
61
78
-17
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
88-75
88
75
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
78-87
78
87
-9
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
79-92
79
92
-13
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#188
W
94-64
94
64
+30
A02/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-33
41-41
43-34
48-47
31-39
29-50
43-21
31-51
39-24
31-63
28-36
33-42
37-36
51-39
35-36
43-51
32-50
47-42
46-35
48-29
157.5Avg total
77.6Scored
79.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)94.064.0158.0+30.0100%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)94.064.0158.0+30.0100%
Last 10 (10)77.679.9157.5-2.350%
Last 5 (5)80.079.2159.2+0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)80.489.7170.1-9.329%
vs Similar (15)81.778.6160.3+3.160%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)86.172.0158.1+14.1100%
This opponent (Northwestern St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northwestern St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lamar
#286
W
70-68
70
68
+2
A10/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
W
69-66
69
66
+3
H14/02
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
64-75
64
75
-11
H17/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#297
W
71-53
71
53
+18
H21/02
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#287
W
54-49
54
49
+5
H24/02
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
L
59-71
59
71
-12
A28/02
NCAA
UTRGV
#137
L
62-74
62
74
-12
A03/03
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
L
47-61
47
61
-14
A09/03
NCAA
Baylor
#17
L
65-87
65
87
-22
A03/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#51
L
44-82
44
82
-38
A06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
37-33
33-35
32-35
37-31
29-43
35-32
37-25
34-28
18-23
36-26
30-29
29-42
30-39
32-35
24-25
23-36
32-50
33-37
27-49
17-33
129.1Avg total
60.5Scored
68.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)54.584.5139.0-30.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)54.584.5139.0-30.00%
Last 10 (10)60.568.6129.1-8.140%
Last 5 (5)55.475.0130.4-19.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)64.475.4139.8-10.922%
vs Similar (11)66.166.7132.8-0.636%
vs Weaker (1)108.055.0163.0+53.0100%
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148Actual: Over 148
Over 148
56.7%
@ 1.33-13.3pp
Under 148
43.3%
@ 3.10+13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.10
Over/Under 153 · main lineActual: Over 153
Over 153
44.0%
@ 1.86-10.1pp
Under 153
56.0%
@ 2.15+10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Under
Bet365
2.15
Marathon Be
1.95
1xBet
1.85
Over/Under 158Actual: Over 158
Over 158
32.0%
@ 2.15-11.0pp
Under 158
68.0%
@ 1.62+11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.62

📊 3. Team Totals

Murray State total 83.5Actual: Murray State over 83.5
Over 83.5
63.5%
Under 83.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murray State total 87.5 · main lineActual: Murray State over 87.5
Over 87.5
47.6%
@ 1.84-2.7pp
Under 87.5
52.4%
@ 1.90+2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Under
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Murray State total 91.5Actual: Murray State over 91.5
Over 91.5
32.1%
Under 91.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northwestern St. total 61Actual: Northwestern St. over 61
Over 61
61.2%
Under 61
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northwestern St. total 65 · main lineActual: Northwestern St. over 65
Over 65
44.7%
@ 1.83-5.9pp
Under 65
55.3%
@ 1.87+5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
Northwestern St. total 69Actual: Northwestern St. over 69
Over 69
29.1%
Under 69
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Murray State -25.5Actual: Northwestern St. +25.5
MURR -25.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
NORT +25.5
no forecast
@ 1.79
Best 5 market prices
MURR
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.04
SBO
2.00
NORT
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Be
1.77
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.57
Spread Murray State -22.5 · main lineActual: Northwestern St. +22.5
MURR -22.5
52.2%
@ 1.90+2.2pp
NORT +22.5
47.8%
@ 1.90-2.2pp
Best 5 market prices
MURR
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.72
NORT
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Spread Murray State -19.5Actual: Murray State -19.5
MURR -19.5
62.6%
@ 1.57+3.7pp
NORT +19.5
37.4%
@ 2.25-3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
MURR
Bet365
1.57
NORT
Bet365
2.25

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +3.0+3.01st half: -5.5-5.52nd half2nd half: -5.3-5.32nd half: -2.6-2.6
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +3.0+3.01st half: -5.5-5.52nd half2nd half: -5.3-5.32nd half: -2.6-2.6
Murray StateNorthwestern St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H04/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A07/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H10/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
43-21
43
21
+22
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
32-50
32
50
-18
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#188
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A02/11
NCAA
71.8Avg total
37.4Scored
34.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)39.436.175.5+3.263%57%
Last 30 at home (16)40.634.675.1+6.081%50%
Last 30 away (14)38.037.975.9+0.143%64%
Last 10 (10)37.434.471.8+3.060%30%
Last 5 (5)35.638.674.2-3.040%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)36.739.976.6-3.157%57%
vs Similar (15)38.136.774.7+1.447%60%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)44.131.976.0+12.2100%50%
This opponent (Northwestern St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northwestern St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lamar
#286
W
37-33
37
33
+4
A10/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H14/02
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
29-43
29
43
-14
H17/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#297
W
37-25
37
25
+12
H21/02
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#287
L
18-23
18
23
-5
H24/02
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
30-29
30
29
+1
A28/02
NCAA
UTRGV
#137
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A03/03
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
L
24-25
24
25
-1
A09/03
NCAA
Baylor
#17
L
32-50
32
50
-18
A03/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#51
L
27-49
27
49
-22
A06/11
NCAA
64.7Avg total
29.6Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)30.636.767.3-6.123%30%
Last 30 at home (13)30.734.765.4-4.023%23%
Last 30 away (17)30.538.268.7-7.824%35%
Last 10 (10)29.635.164.7-5.530%20%
Last 5 (5)28.638.467.0-9.820%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)30.039.469.4-9.417%33%
vs Similar (11)29.732.862.5-3.127%18%
vs Weaker (1)50.030.080.0+20.0100%100%
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Murray State -12.5 · main lineActual: Northwestern St. +12.5
MURR -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.86
NORT +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Over/Under 73.5 · main lineActual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Murray State 1st half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Murray State under 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Murray State (regulation)
MURR
no forecast
@ 1.03
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
NORT
no forecast
@ 10.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Half-time / full-time: MURR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: NORT leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 15970.2%1.55
Bet365
1.55		----+10.5ppLost
Under 16072.4%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+9.9ppLost
Under 159.570.9%1.52
Bet365
1.52		----+9.7ppLost
Under 16174.5%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+9.5ppLost
Under 16276.5%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+9.5ppLost
Under 160.573.0%1.45
Bet365
1.45		----+8.8ppLost
Under 161.575.0%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+8.7ppLost
Under 16378.4%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+8.4ppLost
Under 162.576.9%1.35
Bet365
1.35		----+8.0ppLost
Under 163.578.8%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+7.8ppLost
Murray State -16.572.1%1.36
Bet365
1.36		----+4.1ppWon
Murray State -1674.2%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+3.8ppWon
Murray State -1771.3%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+3.7ppWon
Murray State -15.575.0%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+3.6ppWon
Murray State -1577.0%1.26
Bet365
1.26		----+3.2ppWon
Murray State -14.577.7%1.25
Bet365
1.25		----+3.2ppWon
Under 178.595.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.0ppWon
Under 173.592.2%1.03
Bet365
1.03		----+1.9ppWon
Murray State over 74.589.5%1.06
Bet365
1.06		----+1.6ppWon
Under 168.586.6%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+1.1ppWon
Murray State win97.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.1ppWon
Murray State over 78.580.3%1.16
Bet365
1.16		----+0.8ppWon
Murray State over 76.585.4%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+0.4ppWon
Northwestern St. over 48.593.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.0ppWon
Northwestern St. over 50.590.8%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----0.3ppWon
Over 128.591.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.6ppWon
Northwestern St. over 52.587.1%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----2.3ppWon
Over 133.585.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----3.6ppWon
Northwestern St. over 54.582.4%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----4.8ppWon
Northwestern St. over 56.576.7%1.13
Bet365
1.13		-----5.6ppWon
Northwestern St. over 58.570.1%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----6.1ppWon
Over 138.577.6%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----6.3ppWon
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Murray State wins
0
Northwestern St. wins
No previous meetings.
Murray Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/11/26ATennessee State94-64
06/03/26HIllinois (Chi.)79-92
01/03/26ABradley78-87
21/02/26HEvansville88-75
19/02/26AIllinois State61-78
15/02/26HBelmont70-87
13/02/26AIndiana State74-72
10/02/26HNorthern Iowa60-89
07/02/26ASouthern Illinois91-81
04/02/26HIllinois (Chi.)81-74
Northwestern St.last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26AMississippi St.44-82
03/11/26ABaylor65-87
09/03/26ANicholls State47-61
03/03/26AUTRGV62-74
28/02/26ATexas A&M-CC59-71
24/02/26HIncarnate Word54-49
21/02/26HHouston Christian71-53
17/02/26HMcNeese State64-75
14/02/26HSE Louisiana69-66
10/02/26ALamar70-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
Home--
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %100%-100%
Points / game94.0-94.0
Allowed / game64.0-64.0
Point differential+30.0-+30.0
Avg total158.0-158.0
Over 153100%-100%
Win by 10+100%-100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
Northwestern St.
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
Home--
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %0%-0%
Points / game54.5-54.5
Allowed / game84.5-84.5
Point differential-30.0--30.0
Avg total139.0-139.0
Over 1530%-0%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake110100%101.048.0+53.0
2 Bradley110100%85.041.0+44.0
3 Illinois (Chi.)220100%87.551.5+36.0
4 Murray State110100%94.064.0+30.0
5 Belmont220100%73.549.5+24.0
6 Valparaiso220100%81.569.0+12.5
7 Evansville110100%80.070.0+10.0
8 Illinois State21150%92.572.5+20.0
9 Southern Illinois21150%87.570.0+17.5
10 Northern Iowa21150%94.584.0+10.5
11 Indiana State21150%69.572.0-2.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southland conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Stephen F. Austin220100%104.546.5+58.0
2 Houston Christian220100%91.056.0+35.0
3 UTRGV220100%74.557.0+17.5
4 Lamar21150%102.572.5+30.0
5 Nicholls State21150%86.563.0+23.5
6 McNeese State21150%83.077.5+5.5
7 Texas A&M-CC21150%61.063.5-2.5
8 New Orleans21150%73.582.5-9.0
9 Incarnate Word2020%57.078.5-21.5
10 Northwestern St.2020%54.584.5-30.0
11 SE Louisiana1010%59.092.0-33.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Murray State425193
Northwestern St.393271
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.