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Murray State vs Illinois (Chi.) Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 81-74
40-33 41-41
Position#102
Record16-7
FormWLLLL
Points / game86.3
Allowed / game79.3
vs
Position#155
Record13-10
FormWWWWW
Points / game75.1
Allowed / game69.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Murray State v Illinois (Chi.)
29 Dec 2026
MURR v ILLI
upcoming
06 Mar 2026
MURR79
ILLI92
03 Feb 2026
MURR81
ILLI74
11 Feb 2025
MURR63
ILLI53
02 Jan 2024
MURR85
ILLI73
14 Jan 2023
MURR81
ILLI64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illinois (Chi.) winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#203
W
84-81
84
81
+3
H30/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
81-77
81
77
+4
A02/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
86-66
86
66
+20
H04/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
79-69
79
69
+10
A08/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
92-79
92
79
+13
H10/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
85-81
85
81
+4
H17/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
90-101
90
101
-11
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
76-81
76
81
-5
A24/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
65-70
65
70
-5
H29/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
86-103
86
103
-17
A01/02
NCAA
1H
2H
47-34
37-47
36-40
45-37
50-32
36-34
42-30
37-39
45-36
47-43
47-37
38-44
41-44
49-57
38-37
38-44
29-35
36-35
40-54
46-49
163.2Avg total
82.4Scored
80.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)86.379.3165.6+7.070%
Season at home (13)87.372.9160.2+14.492%
Season away (10)85.087.5172.5-2.540%
Last 10 (10)82.480.8163.2+1.660%
Last 5 (5)80.487.2167.6-6.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)82.686.7169.3-4.129%
vs Similar ◀ (15)81.577.7159.2+3.960%
vs Weaker (8)84.667.2151.9+17.4100%
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois (Chi.)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murray State
#102
L
77-81
77
81
-4
H02/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
59-66
59
66
-7
A04/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
70-57
70
57
+13
H08/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
63-59 OT
63
59
+4
A10/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
69-61
69
61
+8
A14/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
74-67
74
67
+7
H17/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
76-49
76
49
+27
H21/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
85-70
85
70
+15
A25/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
76-74
76
74
+2
H28/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
68-66
68
66
+2
A01/02
NCAA
1H
2H
40-36
37-45
32-31
27-35
31-21
39-36
28-25
23-26
29-32
40-29
34-22
40-45
34-20
42-29
39-28
46-42
41-32
35-42
25-36
43-30
136.7Avg total
71.7Scored
65.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)75.169.9145.0+5.257%
Season at home (11)78.564.9143.5+13.673%
Season away (12)72.074.5146.5-2.542%
Last 10 (10)71.765.0136.7+6.780%
Last 5 (5)75.865.2141.0+10.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)67.781.3149.0-13.70%
vs Similar ◀ (13)67.469.7137.1-2.346%
vs Weaker (13)75.868.4144.2+7.469%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +3.6+3.61st half: +5.0+5.02nd half2nd half: -2.0-2.02nd half: +1.3+1.3
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +3.6+3.61st half: +5.0+5.02nd half2nd half: -2.0-2.02nd half: +1.3+1.3
Murray StateIllinois (Chi.)
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#203
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H30/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A02/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
50-32
50
32
+18
H04/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A08/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
45-36
45
36
+9
H10/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H17/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A24/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H29/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A01/02
NCAA
79.4Avg total
41.5Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.735.974.6+2.863%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.732.673.4+8.182%-
Last 30 away (13)36.040.276.2-4.238%-
Last 10 (10)41.537.979.4+3.660%-
Last 5 (5)39.041.480.4-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)36.339.976.1-3.671%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)37.637.374.9+0.340%-
vs Weaker (8)42.829.972.6+12.9100%-
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois (Chi.)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murray State
#102
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H02/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A04/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
31-21
31
21
+10
H08/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
28-25
28
25
+3
A10/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A14/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
34-22
34
22
+12
H17/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
34-20
34
20
+14
H21/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
39-28
39
28
+11
A25/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H28/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A01/02
NCAA
61.6Avg total
33.3Scored
28.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.731.865.5+1.960%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.828.464.2+7.487%-
Last 30 away (15)31.635.166.7-3.533%-
Last 10 (10)33.328.361.6+5.080%-
Last 5 (5)34.627.662.2+7.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)33.040.373.3-7.30%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)30.532.563.0-1.954%-
vs Weaker (13)36.229.665.8+6.577%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Murray State wins
1
Illinois (Chi.) wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/02/26ABelmont86-103
29/01/26HIllinois State65-70
24/01/26ANorthern Iowa76-81
22/01/26ADrake90-101
17/01/26HIndiana State85-81
10/01/26HValparaiso92-79
08/01/26AEvansville79-69
04/01/26HBradley86-66
02/01/26AIllinois (Chi.)81-77
30/12/25HSouthern Illinois84-81
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/02/26ASouthern Illinois68-66
28/01/26HIndiana State76-74
25/01/26ABradley85-70
21/01/26HEvansville76-49
17/01/26HDrake74-67
14/01/26ANorthern Iowa69-61
10/01/26AIllinois State63-59 OT
08/01/26HSouthern Illinois70-57
04/01/26AValparaiso59-66
02/01/26HMurray State77-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL70%
HomeWWWWL92%
AwayWWLLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231310
Win %70%92%40%
Points / game86.387.385.0
Allowed / game79.372.987.5
Point differential+7.0+14.4-2.5
Avg total165.6160.2172.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%54%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)75% (4)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Illinois (Chi.)
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW57%
HomeLWWWW73%
AwayLWWWW42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231112
Win %57%73%42%
Points / game75.178.572.0
Allowed / game69.964.974.5
Point differential+5.2+13.6-2.5
Avg total145.0143.5146.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%55%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)33% (3)60% (5)
Overtime %9%0%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont2420483%81.872.0+9.8
2 Murray State2316770%86.379.3+7.0
3 Illinois State2315865%76.366.4+9.9
4 Bradley2315865%78.173.3+4.8
5 Northern Iowa2314961%67.160.4+6.7
6 Illinois (Chi.)23131057%75.169.9+5.2
7 Drake23121152%77.273.0+4.2
8 Valparaiso22111150%71.470.2+1.2
9 Southern Illinois23101343%73.771.0+2.7
10 Indiana State2391439%75.375.2+0.1
11 Evansville2251723%67.274.0-6.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Murray State404181
Illinois (Chi.)334174
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