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Murray State vs Texas Southern Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 95-66
Projected total 161.2
Final 99-78
50-38 49-40
Position#25
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game93.7
Allowed / game64.0
Murray State 🏆
USA
Vs
99%
■ MURR 99%■ TEXA 1%
Pythia win probability
Texas Southern
USA
Position#328
Record1-2
FormLLLLW
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game91.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Murray State faces Texas Southern in the NCAA on 13 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Murray State as the clear favourite at 99% to win, reflecting their undefeated 3-0 season record, 93.7 points per game, and only 64.0 points allowed per game, while Texas Southern sits at 1-2, 76.0 points per game and 91.0 points allowed per game. Murray State has gone 2-0 at home, scoring 93.5 points per game and conceding 64.0, and their last five games include wins over Alcorn State 94-57, Northwestern St. 93-71 and Tennessee State 94-64, whereas Texas Southern's last five feature a lone victory over CBS Ambassadors 98-78 and losses to LSU 51-92 and Grand Canyon 79-103. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 95-66 scoreline, with a total of 161.2 points and a 49% chance of the over on the 161.5 line, while the home team is almost certain to cover the spread. The game is expected to finish within regulation, with an overtime probability of 0%.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State winWon
99.0%fair 1.01
Best odds1.01
Implied94.5%
Edge+4.5pp
Texas Southern winLost
1.0%fair 100.69
Best odds29.00
Implied5.5%
Edge-4.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#88
L
60-89
60
89
-29
H10/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
74-72
74
72
+2
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
61-78
61
78
-17
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
88-75
88
75
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
78-87
78
87
-9
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
79-92
79
92
-13
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#186
W
94-64
94
64
+30
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
93-71
93
71
+22
H08/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
94-57
94
57
+37
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-39
29-50
43-21
31-51
39-24
31-63
28-36
33-42
37-36
51-39
35-36
43-51
32-50
47-42
46-35
48-29
42-39
51-32
51-30
43-27
156.3Avg total
79.1Scored
77.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)93.764.0157.7+29.7100%
Season at home (2)93.564.0157.5+29.5100%
Season away (1)94.064.0158.0+30.0100%
Last 10 (10)79.177.2156.3+1.950%
Last 5 (5)87.674.2161.8+13.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)80.489.7170.1-9.329%
vs Similar (15)81.778.6160.3+3.160%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)86.069.6155.6+16.4100%
This opponent (Texas Southern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas SouthernUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Univ.
#210
W
74-73
74
73
+1
H17/02
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
83-64
83
64
+19
A20/02
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
L
71-72
71
72
-1
A21/02
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
W
92-87 OT
92
87
+5
H27/02
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
82-57
82
57
+25
H28/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
59-70
59
70
-11
H06/03
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
L
74-85 OT
74
85
-11
H12/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#29
L
79-103
79
103
-24
A03/11
NCAA
LSU
#13
L
51-92
51
92
-41
A07/11
NCAA
CBS Ambassadors
#414
W
98-78
98
78
+20
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
27-41
47-32
40-36
43-28
34-36
37-36
41-41
35-35
37-30
45-27
30-38
29-32
31-27
35-39
37-48
42-55
28-47
23-45
42-37
56-41
154.4Avg total
76.3Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)76.091.0167.0-15.033%
Season at home (1)98.078.0176.0+20.0100%
Season away (2)65.097.5162.5-32.50%
Last 10 (10)76.378.1154.4-1.850%
Last 5 (5)72.285.6157.8-13.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)68.288.4156.5-20.29%
vs Similar (10)75.673.5149.1+2.150%
vs Weaker (9)85.667.8153.3+17.878%
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Over 156.5
Over 156.5
61.6%
@ 1.52+0.9pp
Under 156.5
38.4%
@ 2.35-0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 161.5 · main lineActual: Over 161.5
Over 161.5
49.3%
@ 1.90-0.7pp
Under 161.5
50.7%
@ 1.90+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 166.5Actual: Over 166.5
Over 166.5
37.1%
@ 2.52+0.6pp
Under 166.5
62.9%
@ 1.45-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Murray State total 90.5Actual: Murray State over 90.5
Over 90.5
67.9%
@ 1.45+5.4pp
Under 90.5
32.1%
@ 2.42-5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.42
Murray State total 94.5 · main lineActual: Murray State over 94.5
Over 94.5
52.4%
@ 1.90+2.7pp
Under 94.5
47.6%
@ 1.85-2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Murray State total 98.5Actual: Murray State over 98.5
Over 98.5
36.5%
@ 2.60+1.7pp
Under 98.5
63.5%
@ 1.39-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.39
Texas Southern total 63.5Actual: Texas Southern over 63.5
Over 63.5
60.4%
@ 1.47-1.3pp
Under 63.5
39.6%
@ 2.37+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.37
Texas Southern total 67.5 · main lineActual: Texas Southern over 67.5
Over 67.5
44.4%
@ 1.91-4.2pp
Under 67.5
55.6%
@ 1.85+4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Texas Southern total 71.5Actual: Texas Southern over 71.5
Over 71.5
29.4%
@ 2.72-4.0pp
Under 71.5
70.6%
@ 1.36+4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Under
Betano
1.36

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Murray State -30.5Actual: Texas Southern +30.5
MURR -30.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
TEXA +30.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
Best 5 market prices
MURR
Betano
2.27
TEXA
Betano
1.55
Spread Murray State -27.5 · main lineActual: Texas Southern +27.5
MURR -27.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
TEXA +27.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
MURR
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
TEXA
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.79
BetVictor
1.78
Spread Murray State -24.5Actual: Texas Southern +24.5
MURR -24.5
65.4%
@ 1.60+7.7pp
TEXA +24.5
34.6%
@ 2.18-7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
MURR
Betano
1.60
TEXA
Betano
2.18

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: +3.8+3.81st half: -3.4-3.42nd half2nd half: -1.9-1.92nd half: +2.2+2.2
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: +3.8+3.81st half: -3.4-3.42nd half2nd half: -1.9-1.92nd half: +2.2+2.2
Murray StateTexas Southern
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#88
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H10/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
43-21
43
21
+22
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
32-50
32
50
-18
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#186
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H08/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
51-30
51
30
+21
H11/11
NCAA
73.0Avg total
38.4Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77.5
Last 30 (30)39.436.475.8+3.163%47%
Last 30 at home (16)40.735.075.7+5.781%56%
Last 30 away (14)38.037.975.9+0.143%36%
Last 10 (10)38.434.673.0+3.860%40%
Last 5 (5)41.238.079.2+3.260%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)36.739.976.6-3.157%43%
vs Similar (15)38.136.774.7+1.447%40%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)44.432.877.1+11.6100%62%
This opponent (Texas Southern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas SouthernLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Univ.
#210
L
27-41
27
41
-14
H17/02
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
40-36
40
36
+4
A20/02
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A21/02
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H27/02
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H28/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
30-38
30
38
-8
H06/03
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
W
31-27
31
27
+4
H12/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#29
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A03/11
NCAA
LSU
#13
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A07/11
NCAA
CBS Ambassadors
#414
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H11/11
NCAA
72.8Avg total
34.7Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77.5
Last 30 (30)34.537.772.2-3.237%23%
Last 30 at home (15)36.233.469.6+2.853%13%
Last 30 away (15)32.842.174.9-9.320%33%
Last 10 (10)34.738.172.8-3.440%30%
Last 5 (5)33.639.473.0-5.840%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)30.645.676.3-15.09%36%
vs Similar (10)33.834.268.0-0.440%0%
vs Weaker (9)40.032.072.0+8.067%33%
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Murray State win
MURR win
no forecast
@ 1.04
TEXA win
no forecast
@ 11.50
1st half Spread Murray State -15.5 · main lineActual: Texas Southern +15.5
MURR -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
TEXA +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 77.5 · main lineActual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Murray State 1st half total 46.5 · main lineActual: Murray State over 46.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Texas Southern 1st half total 31.5 · main lineActual: Texas Southern over 31.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Murray State -16.5Actual: Texas Southern +16.5
MURR -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
TEXA +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Murray State -14.5Actual: Texas Southern +14.5
MURR -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
TEXA +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Over 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Murray State -17.5Actual: Texas Southern +17.5
MURR -17.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
TEXA +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Murray State -13.5Actual: Texas Southern +13.5
MURR -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
TEXA +13.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.55
1st half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Over 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.57
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Murray State -18.5Actual: Texas Southern +18.5
MURR -18.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
TEXA +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Murray State -12.5Actual: Texas Southern +12.5
MURR -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
TEXA +12.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Murray State (regulation)
MURR
no forecast
@ 1.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
TEXA
no forecast
@ 10.75

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MURR win + total 161.5
🔒 Pro
TEXA win + total 161.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MURR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Murray State -20.577.2%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+9.4ppWon
Murray State -21.574.5%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+8.9ppLost
Murray State -22.571.6%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+8.7ppLost
Murray State (regulation)98.8%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+8.1ppWon
Murray State over 89.571.4%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+5.5ppWon
Murray State over 77.596.2%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+5.4ppWon
Murray State over 75.597.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+5.3ppWon
Murray State over 84.585.8%1.15
Bet365
1.15		----+5.3ppWon
Murray State over 79.594.2%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+5.2ppWon
Murray State over 85.583.4%1.18
Bet365
1.18		----+4.5ppWon
Murray State win99.0%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+4.5ppWon
Murray State over 74.598.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+4.4ppWon
Murray State over 81.591.5%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+4.4ppWon
Murray State over 83.587.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+4.1ppWon
Texas Southern under 71.570.6%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+4.0ppLost
Texas Southern over 51.592.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+1.4ppWon
Texas Southern under 76.585.2%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+0.8ppLost
Texas Southern over 53.589.8%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----0.4ppWon
Texas Southern over 55.585.7%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----2.2ppWon
Texas Southern over 56.583.4%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----3.3ppWon
Texas Southern over 57.580.7%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----3.6ppWon
Texas Southern over 59.574.8%1.18
Bet365
1.18		-----4.1ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Murray State wins
0
Texas Southern wins
No previous meetings.
Murray Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HAlcorn State94-57
08/11/26HNorthwestern St.93-71
02/11/26ATennessee State94-64
06/03/26HIllinois (Chi.)79-92
01/03/26ABradley78-87
21/02/26HEvansville88-75
19/02/26AIllinois State61-78
15/02/26HBelmont70-87
13/02/26AIndiana State74-72
10/02/26HNorthern Iowa60-89
Texas Southernlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HCBS Ambassadors98-78
07/11/26ALSU51-92
03/11/26AGrand Canyon79-103
12/03/26HAlabama A&M Bulldogs74-85 OT
06/03/26HPrairie View A&M59-70
28/02/26HJackson State82-57
27/02/26HAlcorn State92-87 OT
21/02/26AMiss. Valley St.71-72
20/02/26AArkansas-Pine Bluff83-64
17/02/26HSouthern Univ.74-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game93.793.594.0
Allowed / game64.064.064.0
Point differential+29.7+29.5+30.0
Avg total157.7157.5158.0
Over 161.533%50%0%
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Texas Southern
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game76.098.065.0
Allowed / game91.078.097.5
Point differential-15.0+20.0-32.5
Avg total167.0176.0162.5
Over 161.567%100%50%
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State330100%93.764.0+29.7
2 Illinois (Chi.)330100%85.758.3+27.3
3 Drake330100%85.762.7+23.0
4 Southern Illinois32167%85.070.0+15.0
5 Belmont32167%74.062.3+11.7
6 Valparaiso32167%77.373.0+4.3
7 Evansville32167%75.373.0+2.3
8 Bradley42250%59.555.0+4.5
9 Northern Iowa42250%87.587.5+0.0
10 Illinois State31233%81.373.7+7.7
11 Indiana State31233%70.775.3-4.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southwestern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alabama A&M Bulldogs43175%81.267.8+13.5
2 Grambling St.21150%75.590.0-14.5
3 Prairie View A&M52340%75.482.0-6.6
4 Alabama State31233%69.778.7-9.0
5 Texas Southern31233%76.091.0-15.0
6 Florida A&M41325%77.880.8-3.0
7 Jackson State41325%66.585.8-19.2
8 Bethune-Cookman4040%71.085.5-14.5
9 Miss. Valley St.3030%62.387.0-24.7
10 Southern Univ.5050%60.488.2-27.8
11 Alcorn State3030%66.095.7-29.7
12 Arkansas-Pine Bluff3030%50.3107.0-56.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Murray State504999
Texas Southern384078
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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