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Nancy vs Pau-Orthez Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 88-80
Projected total 168.9
Scheduled
Position#13
Record2-5
FormLWWLW
Points / game79.3
Allowed / game83.9
Nancy
France
Vs
75%
25%
■ NAC 75%■ POR 25%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.3/10
Below normal
3.9/10
Below normal
Pau-Orthez
France
Position#14
Record2-5
FormLWWLL
Points / game83.6
Allowed / game90.6
FranceLNBRound 9· Palais des Sports Jean-Weille
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Nancy v Pau-Orthez
21 Nov 2026
NAC v POR
upcoming
15 Oct 2022
NAC88
POR81
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Nancy host Pau-Orthez in the LNB Elite. Pythia makes Nancy the favourite at 75% and projects 88-80, about 169 points in all. Overtime chance: 4%. Nancy are 2-5 this season (79.3 scored, 83.9 allowed a game), form LWWLW; Pau-Orthez are 2-5 this season (83.6 scored, 90.6 allowed a game), form LWWLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nancy win
74.6%fair 1.34
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pau-Orthez win
25.4%fair 3.94
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NancyFranceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNancy
Date
Competition
Chalon/Saone
#6
L
67-108
67
108
-41
64avg 78
A10/10
LNB
Parnu
#39
W
84-61
84
61
+23
76avg 78
A13/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Nanterre
#5
W
80-65
80
65
+15
72avg 78
H17/10
LNB
Nitra Blue Wings
#35
W
99-60
99
60
+39
97avg 78
H20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#4
L
74-78
74
78
-4
69avg 78
A25/10
LNB
Szczecin
#16
L
87-90
87
90
-3
74avg 78
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Dijon
#2
W
108-94
108
94
+14
101avg 78
A30/10
LNB
Keravnos
#18
W
86-73
86
73
+13
no box
H03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Limoges
#11
L
77-79
77
79
-2
no box
H07/11
LNB
Vienna Basket
#32
W
101-86
101
86
+15
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-28
18-29
10-23
15-28
28-18
15-13
12-10
29-20
19-20
27-18
19-16
15-11
28-16
18-11
29-13
24-20
24-18
16-25
17-15
17-20
21-22
25-28
21-18
20-22
25-30
21-17
27-21
35-26
20-17
22-21
23-18
21-17
16-15
19-25
28-15
14-24
25-22
25-25
30-19
21-20
165.7Avg total
86.3Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)79.383.9163.1-4.629%
Season at home (4)76.576.8153.2-0.225%
Season away (3)83.093.3176.3-10.333%
Last 10 (10)86.379.4165.7+6.960%
Last 5 (5)91.884.4176.2+7.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)80.389.5169.8-9.223%
vs Similar ◀ (9)85.683.0168.6+2.656%
vs Weaker (8)88.272.2160.5+16.075%
This opponent (Pau-Orthez) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Pau-OrthezFranceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPau-Orthez
Date
Competition
Poitiers
#4
L
82-106
82
106
-24
68avg 83
H12/06
Pro B
Poitiers
#4
W
81-72
81
72
+9
72avg 83
A15/06
Pro B
Poitiers
#4
W
86-73
86
73
+13
85avg 83
H18/06
Pro B
Nanterre
#5
L
64-78
64
78
-14
52avg 83
A26/09
LNB
Dijon
#2
L
61-89
61
89
-28
53avg 83
H03/10
LNB
Cholet
#10
L
79-85
79
85
-6
78avg 83
A10/10
LNB
Saint Quentin
#15
W
102-89
102
89
+13
96avg 83
H17/10
LNB
Limoges
#11
W
85-81
85
81
+4
73avg 83
H25/10
LNB
Le Mans
#3
L
97-106 OT
97
106
-9
86avg 83
A31/10
LNB
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#4
L
97-106
97
106
-9
no box
A07/11
LNB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-28
19-34
22-23
20-21
21-22
18-23
25-18
17-9
25-22
19-17
18-24
24-10
14-23
12-18
18-14
20-23
14-19
14-20
19-31
14-19
17-22
16-22
25-22
21-19
30-34
31-16
14-22
27-17
28-20
24-19
16-22
17-20
15-16
29-24
20-27
23-20
27-16
27-27
17-31
26-32
171.9Avg total
83.4Scored
88.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)83.690.6174.1-7.029%
Season at home (3)82.786.3169.0-3.767%
Season away (4)84.293.8178.0-9.50%
Last 10 (10)83.488.5171.9-5.140%
Last 5 (5)92.093.4185.4-1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.094.7175.7-13.717%
vs Similar ◀ (11)87.381.2168.5+6.182%
vs Weaker (13)86.378.3164.6+8.085%
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%1%1251%1302%1353%1405%1457%1509%15512%16012%16512%17010%1758%1807%1854%1903%1952%2001%2051%2100%215
1%1252%1355%1459%15512%16510%1757%1853%1951%2050%215
Pythia expects about 169 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%).
Over/Under 166.5
Over 166.5
55.1%
Under 166.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171.5
Over 171.5
43.0%
Under 171.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 176.5
Over 176.5
31.7%
Under 176.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Nancy total 83.5
Over 83.5
68.1%
Under 83.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nancy total 87.5
Over 87.5
53.8%
Under 87.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nancy total 91.5
Over 91.5
38.9%
Under 91.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pau-Orthez total 80
Over 80
50.9%
Under 80
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pau-Orthez total 84
Over 84
35.2%
Under 84
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pau-Orthez total 88
Over 88
22.1%
Under 88
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

3%5%8%10%0%-241%-211%-182%-153%-124%-96%-67%-35%+010%+310%+69%+99%+128%+157%+185%+214%+243%+272%+301%+331%+360%+39
0%-241%-183%-126%-65%+010%+69%+127%+184%+242%+301%+36
Margin from Nancy's side (positive = Nancy win). Pythia's expected margin is +8.1; Nancy win by 1+ in 68% of simulations.
Spread Nancy -3
NAC -3
68.0%
POR +3
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
NAC
No market prices yet.
POR
No market prices yet.
Spread Nancy 0
NAC 0
74.6%
POR 0
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
NAC
No market prices yet.
POR
No market prices yet.
Spread Nancy +3
NAC +3
81.0%
POR -3
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
NAC
No market prices yet.
POR
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +1.9+1.9
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +1.9+1.9
NancyPau-Orthez
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NancyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chalon/Saone
#6
L
42-57
42
57
-15
A10/10
LNB
Parnu
#39
W
43-31
43
31
+12
A13/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Nanterre
#5
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H17/10
LNB
Nitra Blue Wings
#35
W
46-27
46
27
+19
H20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#4
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A25/10
LNB
Szczecin
#16
L
46-50
46
50
-4
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Dijon
#2
L
46-47
46
47
-1
A30/10
LNB
Keravnos
#18
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Limoges
#11
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H07/11
LNB
Vienna Basket
#32
W
50-47
50
47
+3
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
85.4Avg total
43.6Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.341.484.7+2.053%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.038.183.1+6.969%-
Last 30 away (14)41.445.186.5-3.636%-
Last 10 (10)43.641.885.4+1.850%-
Last 5 (5)43.844.488.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)41.143.284.2-2.131%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)44.241.886.0+2.467%-
vs Weaker (8)46.038.084.0+8.075%-
This opponent (Pau-Orthez) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Pau-OrthezLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Poitiers
#4
L
40-62
40
62
-22
H12/06
Pro B
Poitiers
#4
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A15/06
Pro B
Poitiers
#4
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H18/06
Pro B
Nanterre
#5
L
26-41
26
41
-15
A26/09
LNB
Dijon
#2
L
28-39
28
39
-11
H03/10
LNB
Cholet
#10
L
33-44
33
44
-11
A10/10
LNB
Saint Quentin
#15
W
61-50
61
50
+11
H17/10
LNB
Limoges
#11
W
52-39
52
39
+13
H25/10
LNB
Le Mans
#3
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A31/10
LNB
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#4
W
54-43
54
43
+11
A07/11
LNB
86.3Avg total
42.1Scored
44.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.641.883.4-0.260%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.540.984.5+2.680%-
Last 30 away (15)39.742.682.3-2.940%-
Last 10 (10)42.144.286.3-2.150%-
Last 5 (5)48.843.292.0+5.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)40.742.883.5-2.250%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)43.644.387.9-0.655%-
vs Weaker (13)40.339.279.5+1.269%-
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nancytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nancy: 81.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
47%
33%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.018.8
49.5%
55.6%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.79.0
36.4%
34.3%27.0
🏀 Free throws22.417.0
75.9%
74.2%17.0
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pau-Ortheztheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pau-Orthez: 82.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
47%
33%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.821.8
50.9%
55.6%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.17.2
28.7%
34.3%21.6
🏀 Free throws23.617.5
74.2%
74.2%17.5
They take 67.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nancy
WLWWLLWWWL
Pau-Orthez
LLWWLLLWWL
#13
League position
#14
+4.6
Net rating
-3.6
93.6
Offensive rating
91.4
89.0
Defensive rating
95.1
51.5%
Effective FG%
48.0%
48.2%
Opp. effective FG%
54.9%
16.3%
Turnover %
14.1%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.35
36.4%
3-point %
28.7%
55.4%
Assist %
65.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence93.6 · 91.4Defence89.0 · 95.1Shooting51.5% · 48.0%3-point %36.4% · 28.7%Ball care16.3% · 14.1%Free throws0.36 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Nancy   ■ Pau-Orthez
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Nancy wins
0
Pau-Orthez wins
DateGameScore
06/05/23Pau-Orthez v Nancy73-83
15/10/22Nancy v Pau-Orthez88-81
Nancylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AVienna Basket101-86
07/11/26HLimoges77-79
03/11/26HKeravnos86-73
30/10/26ADijon108-94
28/10/26ASzczecin87-90
25/10/26ALyon-Villeurbanne74-78
20/10/26HNitra Blue Wings99-60
17/10/26HNanterre80-65
13/10/26AParnu84-61
10/10/26AChalon/Saone67-108
Pau-Orthezlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26ALyon-Villeurbanne97-106
31/10/26ALe Mans97-106 OT
25/10/26HLimoges85-81
17/10/26HSaint Quentin102-89
10/10/26ACholet79-85
03/10/26HDijon61-89
26/09/26ANanterre64-78
18/06/26HPoitiers86-73
15/06/26APoitiers81-72
12/06/26HPoitiers82-106

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nancy
LNB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL29%
HomeLLWL25%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %29%25%33%
Points / game79.376.583.0
Allowed / game83.976.893.3
Point differential-4.6-0.2-10.3
Avg total163.1153.2176.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pau-Orthez
LNB 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL29%
HomeLWW67%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %29%67%0%
Points / game83.682.784.2
Allowed / game90.686.393.8
Point differential-7.0-3.7-9.5
Avg total174.1169.0178.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %14%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Paris87188%97.286.4+10.9
2 Dijon76186%93.181.7+11.4
3 Le Mans76186%98.687.9+10.7
4 Lyon-Villeurbanne76186%91.184.4+6.7
5 Nanterre75271%86.779.7+7.0
6 Chalon/Saone74357%93.185.1+8.0
7 Roanne74357%80.780.4+0.3
8 Strasbourg84450%81.187.5-6.4
9 Boulazac73443%81.083.7-2.7
10 Cholet83538%81.087.4-6.4
11 Limoges72529%86.489.0-2.6
12 JL Bourg72529%88.692.4-3.9
13 Nancy72529%79.383.9-4.6
14 Pau-Orthez72529%83.690.6-7.0
15 Saint Quentin82625%87.494.8-7.4
16 Gravelines-Dunkerque7070%76.789.6-12.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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