PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Nebraska O. host Lamar on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Nebraska O. the clear favourite with a 78% chance of winning, driven by their 2-2 season record and 68.5 points scored per game versus 82.2 allowed, while Lamar sits at 2-1 with 109.0 points per game and 67.3 allowed. Nebraska O. have gone 2-0 at home, averaging 75.5 points and conceding 65.5, and their last five games show two wins and three losses, including a 78-66 victory over York at home and a 56-90 loss to Utah State away. Lamar's road record is 0-1, 81.0 points scored and 83.0 allowed, and their last five games mirror Nebraska O.'s 2-0-3 split, highlighted by a 122-57 win over Centenary Louisiana at home and an 81-83 loss to Abilene Christian away. In head-to-head history Nebraska O. have won both of the two meetings, most recently 85-82 on 20 December 2025. Pythia projects a score of 80-71 for Nebraska O., a total of 151.4 points, and a 78% probability that Nebraska O. will cover the spread; the model also assigns a 22% chance that Lamar will win and a 4% chance of overtime. Nebraska O. will look to extend their home dominance in this encounter.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 68.5 | 82.2 | 150.8 | -13.8 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 75.5 | 65.5 | 141.0 | +10.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 61.5 | 99.0 | 160.5 | -37.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 68.8 | 76.9 | 145.7 | -8.1 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 64.8 | 80.6 | 145.4 | -15.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (9) | 68.2 | 81.6 | 149.8 | -13.3 | 22% |
| vs Similar (14) | 74.8 | 75.4 | 150.2 | -0.6 | 57% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 71.5 | 66.5 | 138.0 | +5.0 | 50% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 109.0 | 67.3 | 176.3 | +41.7 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 123.0 | 59.5 | 182.5 | +63.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 81.0 | 83.0 | 164.0 | -2.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.9 | 69.5 | 145.4 | +6.4 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 88.0 | 69.8 | 157.8 | +18.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 67.6 | 77.0 | 144.6 | -9.4 | 0% |
| vs Similar (8) | 70.2 | 73.8 | 144.0 | -3.5 | 25% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 68.3 | 63.7 | 132.0 | +4.6 | 60% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.4 | 35.1 | 71.5 | +1.3 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 40.6 | 32.9 | 73.5 | +7.6 | 71% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 32.8 | 36.9 | 69.7 | -4.2 | 38% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.4 | 37.8 | 71.2 | -4.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 29.0 | 40.6 | 69.6 | -11.6 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (9) | 32.3 | 39.1 | 71.4 | -6.8 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 36.6 | 34.5 | 71.1 | +2.1 | 57% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 36.0 | 33.0 | 69.0 | +3.0 | 50% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.9 | 33.5 | 67.4 | +0.5 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 35.6 | 30.4 | 66.1 | +5.2 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 31.7 | 37.5 | 69.2 | -5.8 | 15% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.6 | 32.0 | 66.6 | +2.6 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.8 | 32.2 | 74.0 | +9.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 31.7 | 38.9 | 70.6 | -7.2 | 11% | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 30.8 | 33.2 | 64.0 | -2.5 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 29.7 | 31.7 | 61.4 | -2.0 | 30% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21/12/25 | Lamar v Nebraska O. | 82-85 OT |
| 24/11/24 | Lamar v Nebraska O. | 59-65 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | York | 78-66 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Utah State | 56-90 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Brigham Young | 67-108 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Mid-America Christian | 73-65 |
| 08/03/26 | A | North Dakota St | 50-74 |
| 07/03/26 | A | South Dakota Coyotes | 76-62 |
| 01/03/26 | A | St. Thomas (Minn.) | 53-68 |
| 26/02/26 | A | South Dakota Coyotes | 72-89 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Oral Roberts | 80-71 |
| 15/02/26 | H | Denver | 83-76 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Centenary Louisiana | 122-57 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Abilene Christian | 81-83 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Schreiner Mountaineers | 124-62 |
| 03/03/26 | A | Houston Christian | 53-75 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Incarnate Word | 60-72 |
| 24/02/26 | H | Nicholls State | 52-53 |
| 22/02/26 | H | New Orleans | 71-77 |
| 17/02/26 | A | UTRGV | 65-70 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Texas A&M-CC | 63-76 |
| 10/02/26 | H | Northwestern St. | 68-70 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLW | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 68.5 | 75.5 | 61.5 |
| Allowed / game | 82.2 | 65.5 | 99.0 |
| Point differential | -13.8 | +10.0 | -37.5 |
| Avg total | 150.8 | 141.0 | 160.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 109.0 | 123.0 | 81.0 |
| Allowed / game | 67.3 | 59.5 | 83.0 |
| Point differential | +41.7 | +63.5 | -2.0 |
| Avg total | 176.3 | 182.5 | 164.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Dakota St. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 73.3 | 61.3 | +12.0 |
| 2 |  St. Thomas (Minn.) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 83.8 | 78.0 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Nebraska O. | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 68.5 | 82.2 | -13.8 |
| 4 |  UMKC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 77.8 | -2.4 |
| 5 |  Oral Roberts | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.3 | 68.0 | +5.3 |
| 6 |  North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.3 | 89.0 | -15.7 |
| 7 |  South Dakota Coyotes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 87.5 | 83.2 | +4.2 |
| 8 |  North Dakota St | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 76.0 | 83.5 | -7.5 |
| 9 |  Denver | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 64.0 | 69.5 | -5.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stephen F. Austin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 54.7 | +40.3 |
| 2 |  Houston Christian | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.7 | 62.7 | +27.0 |
| 3 | Lamar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 109.0 | 67.3 | +41.7 |
| 4 |  McNeese State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 100.3 | 80.7 | +19.7 |
| 5 |  Texas A&M-CC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.7 | 61.7 | +13.0 |
| 6 |  UTRGV | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 71.3 | 62.0 | +9.3 |
| 7 |  New Orleans | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 73.5 | 82.5 | -9.0 |
| 8 |  Nicholls State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 78.7 | 67.7 | +11.0 |
| 9 |  SE Louisiana | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.3 | 87.3 | -23.0 |
| 10 |  Northwestern St. | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.2 | 77.8 | -13.5 |
| 11 |  Incarnate Word | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.8 | 79.2 | -18.5 |
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