New Mexico hosts Utah Tech on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Lobos the clear favourite, assigning them a 77% chance of victory and projecting a 79-71 win. The Lobos have finished the season with a record that reflects 79 points per game and 71 points allowed, placing them near the top of the standings, while Utah Tech has posted 71 points scored and 79 points allowed, a position that keeps them mid-table. In recent form both squads are even, each winning two of their last five outings, with New Mexico's last game a 93-77 home win over San Jose State and Utah Tech's most recent a 80-74 home victory over Abilene Christian. Their only meeting on record was a 72-63 Lobos win in January 2021, giving New Mexico a 1-0 edge. The model gives the home team a 9% chance of covering the -23.5 spread and a 29% probability that the total will exceed 159.5, with a 4% chance of overtime. The projected score of 79-71 suggests a decisive win for New Mexico, and the last game of the season will see the Lobos extend their winning streak.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
New Mexico winWon
76.8%fair 1.30
Best odds1.02
Implied95.3%
Edge-18.5pp
Utah Tech winLost
23.2%fair 4.30
Best odds21.00
Implied4.7%
Edge+18.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (New Mexico) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Over 154.5
Over 154.5
40.2%
@ 1.72-14.5pp
Under 154.5
59.8%
@ 2.55+14.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Marathon Be
1.69
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.03
Over/Under 159.5 · main lineActual: Over 159.5
Over 159.5
29.1%
@ 1.96-21.3pp
Under 159.5
70.9%
@ 1.91+21.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 164.5Actual: Under 164.5
Over 164.5
19.8%
@ 2.60-16.8pp
Under 164.5
80.2%
@ 1.47+16.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
New Mexico total 86Actual: New Mexico over 86
Over 86
24.9%
Under 86
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
New Mexico total 90 · main lineActual: New Mexico over 90
Over 90
13.9%
@ 1.85-36.5pp
Under 90
86.1%
@ 1.88+36.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
New Mexico total 93.5Actual: New Mexico over 93.5
Over 93.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under 93.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.18
Under
Betano
1.55
Utah Tech total 64Actual: Utah Tech under 64
Over 64
76.4%
Under 64
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah Tech total 68 · main lineActual: Utah Tech under 68
Over 68
62.2%
@ 1.85+12.2pp
Under 68
37.8%
@ 1.85-12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Utah Tech total 72Actual: Utah Tech under 72
Over 72
46.1%
Under 72
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread New Mexico -26.5Actual: New Mexico -26.5
NEW -26.5
no forecast
@ 2.32
UTAH +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
Best 5 market prices
NEW
Betano
2.32
Bet365
2.30
UTAH
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
Spread New Mexico -23.5 · main lineActual: New Mexico -23.5
NEW -23.5
9.4%
@ 1.95-40.6pp
UTAH +23.5
90.6%
@ 1.91+40.6pp
Best 5 market prices
NEW
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
UTAH
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Spread New Mexico -20.5Actual: New Mexico -20.5
NEW -20.5
14.2%
@ 1.75-45.1pp
UTAH +20.5
85.8%
@ 2.33+45.1pp
Best 5 market prices
NEW
1xBet
1.75
Marathon Be
1.64
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.58
UTAH
Pinnacle
2.33
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.18
1xBet
1.96
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
New MexicoUtah Tech
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (New Mexico) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: New Mexico win
NEW win
no forecast
@ 1.12
UTAH win
no forecast
@ 6.20
2nd half Spread New Mexico -10.5 · main lineActual: New Mexico -10.5
NEW -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
UTAH +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
New Mexico 2nd half total 46.5 · main lineActual: New Mexico over 46.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Utah Tech 2nd half total 34.5 · main lineActual: Utah Tech under 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Spread New Mexico -9.5Actual: New Mexico -9.5
NEW -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
UTAH +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Over 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: New Mexico (regulation)
NEW
no forecast
@ 1.14
Draw
no forecast
@ 24.00
UTAH
no forecast
@ 6.10
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Utah Tech +16
76.1%
3.40
Bet365
3.40
-
-
-
-
+49.0pp
Lost
Utah Tech +17
78.8%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+48.8pp
Lost
Utah Tech +18
81.3%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+48.2pp
Lost
Utah Tech +15
73.3%
3.55
Bet365
3.55
-
-
-
-
+47.1pp
Lost
Utah Tech +16.5
76.8%
3.06
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.92
-
-
-
+46.5pp
Lost
Utah Tech +21.5
87.6%
2.01
Pinnacle
2.29
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.97
1xBet
1.83
+46.2pp
Lost
Utah Tech +17.5
79.3%
2.79
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.72
-
-
-
+46.1pp
Lost
Utah Tech +15.5
74.1%
3.33
Bet365
3.55
Betano
3.10
-
-
-
+46.1pp
Lost
Utah Tech +18.5
81.7%
2.58
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.52
-
-
-
+45.9pp
Lost
Utah Tech +22
89.0%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.97
-
-
+45.9pp
Lost
Utah Tech +20.5
85.8%
2.17
Pinnacle
2.33
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.18
1xBet
1.96
-
+45.1pp
Lost
Utah Tech +21
87.4%
2.16
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Marathon Bet
2.04
-
-
+44.8pp
Lost
Utah Tech +19
83.5%
2.50
Bet365
2.60
Pinnacle
2.40
-
-
-
+44.1pp
Lost
Utah Tech +14
70.2%
3.55
Bet365
3.55
-
-
-
-
+44.0pp
Lost
Utah Tech +22.5
89.2%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.90
+43.9pp
Lost
Utah Tech +14.5
71.1%
3.42
Bet365
3.70
Betano
3.15
-
-
-
+43.8pp
Lost
Utah Tech +23
90.5%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
-
+43.0pp
Lost
Utah Tech +19.5
83.9%
2.27
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.30
1xBet
2.07
-
+42.7pp
Lost
Utah Tech +20
85.5%
2.28
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
2.20
-
-
-
+42.4pp
Lost
New Mexico under 87.5
78.9%
2.47
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
-
+42.4pp
Lost
New Mexico under 86.5
75.9%
2.73
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.70
-
-
-
+42.2pp
Lost
New Mexico under 85.5
72.6%
2.85
Betano
2.85
-
-
-
-
+40.8pp
Lost
Utah Tech +23.5
90.6%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.86
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.83
+40.6pp
Lost
New Mexico under 90.5
86.4%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
+40.0pp
Lost
Utah Tech +24
91.8%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
-
-
+39.3pp
Lost
New Mexico under 91.5
88.5%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
+39.2pp
Lost
New Mexico under 91
88.2%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+38.5pp
Lost
Utah Tech +24.5
91.9%
1.73
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.72
-
+37.3pp
Lost
New Mexico under 90
86.1%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Lost
Utah Tech +25
92.9%
1.68
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
-
-
-
+36.3pp
Lost
New Mexico under 88.5
81.6%
2.07
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.87
+35.9pp
Lost
New Mexico under 89.5
84.2%
1.92
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
+35.5pp
Lost
New Mexico under 89
83.7%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+33.2pp
Lost
Under 159
70.3%
1.92
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.89
-
-
+21.7pp
Lost
Under 161
74.4%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+21.7pp
Won
Under 160
72.4%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+21.7pp
Push
Under 161.5
74.9%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
-
+21.3pp
Won
Under 159.5
70.9%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
+21.3pp
Lost
Under 160.5
72.9%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.82
Betano
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
+21.2pp
Won
Under 162
76.3%
1.63
Marathon Bet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Under 162.5
76.7%
1.59
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Under 163
78.1%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Under 163.5
78.5%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Under 164
79.9%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
Under 164.5
80.2%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
Under 165
81.5%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Under 165.5
81.8%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Won
Under 166
83.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Won
Under 166.5
83.3%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Under 167
84.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Under 167.5
84.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Under 169.5
87.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Utah Tech over 65.5
70.7%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Under 168.5
86.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Utah Tech over 63.5
77.1%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Lost
Utah Tech over 64.5
74.0%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Lost
Utah Tech over 62.5
80.0%
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Lost
Under 174.5
92.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Under 173.5
91.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Utah Tech over 61.5
82.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Lost
Utah Tech over 60.5
85.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Lost
Utah Tech over 58.5
89.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Utah Tech over 59.5
87.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Under 171.5
89.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Utah Tech over 56.5
92.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Under 176.5
93.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Utah Tech over 55.5
93.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Utah Tech over 57.5
91.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Under 175.5
93.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 170.5
88.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Utah Tech under 84.5
89.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Over 130.5
89.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Over 131.5
87.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Utah Tech under 82.5
86.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Over 133.5
85.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Over 135.5
82.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
New Mexico over 68.5
86.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Utah Tech under 80.5
81.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Over 134.5
83.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
Over 136.5
80.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
New Mexico over 69.5
83.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Utah Tech under 78.5
76.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
Over 140.5
72.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-11.5pp
Won
Utah Tech under 77.5
73.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.7pp
Won
Utah Tech under 76.5
70.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Over 138.5
76.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-12.6pp
Won
Over 141.5
70.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-13.6pp
Won
New Mexico over 71.5
78.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
Over 139.5
74.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.5pp
Won
New Mexico (regulation)
74.4%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-15.9pp
Won
New Mexico over 72.5
75.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.6pp
Won
New Mexico win
76.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
-
-18.5pp
Won
New Mexico over 73.5
72.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-18.7pp
Won
New Mexico -1.5
74.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-19.2pp
Won
New Mexico -2.5
70.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-21.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.