PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

North Dakota St vs CSU Bakersfield Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Projected 89-70
Projected total 159.0
Scheduled
Position#264
Record2-3
FormWLLLW
Points / game77.2
Allowed / game83.0
North Dakota St
USA
Vs
94%
■ NORT 94%■ CSU 6%
Pythia win probability
CSU Bakersfield
USA
Position#56
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game91.7
Allowed / game72.3
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · North Dakota St v CSU Bakersfield
15 Nov 2026
NORT v CSU
upcoming
23 Dec 2024
NORT94
CSU 60
Sections
Game preview & prediction

North Dakota St hosts CSU Bakersfield on 15 November 2026 in an NCAA contest where the model names North Dakota St the clear favourite, rating them 94% to win largely because of their 2-3 record and 77.2 points scored per game versus the 3-0, 91.7 points per game of CSU Bakersfield, and the 89% probability they will cover the home line of -4.5. North Dakota St has gone 2-0 at home, averaging 86.0 points and allowing 70.0, while their overall season record sits at 2-3 with 83.0 points allowed per game; their last five games include a win over Illinois State 82-81 at home and losses to CSU Bakersfield 80-91 and San Francisco 70-79. CSU Bakersfield is undefeated, 3-0 overall, 91.7 points scored and 72.3 allowed, and has won all three of its road games, 91.0 points scored and 83.0 allowed; their last five games feature wins over Western Illinois, North Dakota St, and Stanton. The teams have met four times, splitting the series 2-2, with the most recent meeting on 8 November 2026 ending 91-80 in favour of CSU Bakersfield. The Pythia model projects a score of 89-70, a total of 159.0 points, a 63% chance of the over on the 153.5 line, and a 1% chance of overtime. The game will be decided by North Dakota St's home advantage and their superior defensive numbers in recent contests.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Dakota St win
94.0%fair 1.06
Best odds1.53
Implied62.9%
Edge+31.1pp
CSU Bakersfield win
6.0%fair 16.62
Best odds2.62
Implied37.1%
Edge-31.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 07:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North Dakota StUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Dakota
#196
W
96-63
96
63
+33
H28/02
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#338
W
76-65
76
65
+11
H06/03
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
W
74-50
74
50
+24
H08/03
NCAA
North Dakota
#196
W
70-62
70
62
+8
H09/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
67-92
67
92
-25
A19/03
NCAA
MN-Crookston
#422
W
90-59
90
59
+31
H03/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#105
L
64-105
64
105
-41
A05/11
NCAA
San Francisco
#140
L
70-79
70
79
-9
A07/11
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#56
L
80-91
80
91
-11
A08/11
NCAA
Illinois State
#300
W
82-81 OT
82
81
+1
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
44-31
52-32
36-26
40-39
40-25
34-25
38-30
32-32
25-45
42-47
38-26
52-33
26-45
38-60
31-45
39-34
32-38
48-53
31-31
38-38
151.6Avg total
76.9Scored
74.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)77.283.0160.2-5.840%
Season at home (2)86.070.0156.0+16.0100%
Season away (3)71.391.7163.0-20.30%
Last 10 (10)76.974.7151.6+2.260%
Last 5 (5)77.283.0160.2-5.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)74.089.0163.0-15.025%
vs Similar (4)67.578.8146.2-11.225%
vs Weaker (20)82.370.2152.5+12.290%
This opponent (CSU Bakersfield) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CSU BakersfieldUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hawaii
#44
L
74-89
74
89
-15
H13/02
NCAA
UC Riverside
#334
L
65-93
65
93
-28
A20/02
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
L
80-88
80
88
-8
H22/02
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
72-84
72
84
-12
A27/02
NCAA
Long Beach State
#328
L
87-88
87
88
-1
H01/03
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
L
84-86
84
86
-2
H06/03
NCAA
Cal Poly
#266
L
76-108
76
108
-32
A08/03
NCAA
Stanton
#451
W
93-54
93
54
+39
H06/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#264
W
91-80
91
80
+11
H08/11
NCAA
Western Illinois
#303
W
91-83
91
83
+8
A13/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-43
42-46
23-43
42-50
42-41
38-47
27-43
45-41
43-44
44-44
34-36
50-50
41-62
35-46
36-22
57-32
38-32
53-48
32-38
59-45
166.6Avg total
81.3Scored
85.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)91.772.3164.0+19.3100%
Season at home (2)92.067.0159.0+25.0100%
Season away (1)91.083.0174.0+8.0100%
Last 10 (10)81.385.3166.6-4.030%
Last 5 (5)87.082.2169.2+4.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (24)72.485.1157.5-12.717%
vs Similar (1)62.070.0132.0-8.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)91.274.8166.0+16.5100%
This opponent (North Dakota St) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148.5
Over 148.5
74.0%
@ 1.45+10.8pp
Under 148.5
26.0%
@ 2.50-10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.50
Over/Under 153.5 · main line
Over 153.5
63.1%
@ 1.91+13.1pp
Under 153.5
36.9%
@ 1.93-13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.81
Under
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Over/Under 158.5
Over 158.5
51.0%
@ 2.35+11.7pp
Under 158.5
49.0%
@ 1.63-11.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Under
Marathon Be
1.63
Betano
1.52

📊 3. Team Totals

North Dakota St total 75
Over 75
92.1%
Under 75
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Dakota St total 79 · main line
Over 79
84.2%
@ 1.85+34.2pp
Under 79
15.8%
@ 1.85-34.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
North Dakota St total 83
Over 83
72.1%
Under 83
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSU Bakersfield total 71
Over 71
47.2%
Under 71
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSU Bakersfield total 75 · main line
Over 75
31.4%
@ 1.85-18.6pp
Under 75
68.6%
@ 1.85+18.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
CSU Bakersfield total 79
Over 79
18.7%
Under 79
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread North Dakota St -7.5
NORT -7.5
82.7%
@ 2.50+45.3pp
CSU +7.5
17.3%
@ 1.50-45.3pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.47
CSU
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
Spread North Dakota St -4.5 · main line
NORT -4.5
88.7%
@ 2.00+39.6pp
CSU +4.5
11.3%
@ 1.88-39.6pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
CSU
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Marathon Be
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Spread North Dakota St -1.5
NORT -1.5
93.1%
@ 1.60+35.1pp
CSU +1.5
6.9%
@ 2.22-35.1pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
CSU
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.18

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -0.1-0.11st half: -5.6-5.62nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: +1.6+1.6
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -0.1-0.11st half: -5.6-5.62nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: +1.6+1.6
North Dakota StCSU Bakersfield
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North Dakota StLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Dakota
#196
W
44-31
44
31
+13
H28/02
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#338
W
36-26
36
26
+10
H06/03
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
W
40-25
40
25
+15
H08/03
NCAA
North Dakota
#196
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H09/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
25-45
25
45
-20
A19/03
NCAA
MN-Crookston
#422
W
38-26
38
26
+12
H03/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#105
L
26-45
26
45
-19
A05/11
NCAA
San Francisco
#140
L
31-45
31
45
-14
A07/11
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#56
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A08/11
NCAA
Illinois State
#300
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H14/11
NCAA
68.3Avg total
34.1Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)38.434.172.5+4.360%40%
Last 30 at home (15)39.531.170.5+8.467%33%
Last 30 away (15)37.337.274.5+0.153%47%
Last 10 (10)34.134.268.3-0.150%20%
Last 5 (5)31.637.068.6-5.420%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)30.039.869.8-9.80%25%
vs Similar (4)29.842.572.2-12.80%25%
vs Weaker (20)40.931.872.7+9.180%45%
This opponent (CSU Bakersfield) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CSU BakersfieldLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hawaii
#44
L
32-43
32
43
-11
H13/02
NCAA
UC Riverside
#334
L
23-43
23
43
-20
A20/02
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H22/02
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
27-43
27
43
-16
A27/02
NCAA
Long Beach State
#328
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H01/03
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H06/03
NCAA
Cal Poly
#266
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A08/03
NCAA
Stanton
#451
W
36-22
36
22
+14
H06/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#264
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H08/11
NCAA
Western Illinois
#303
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A13/11
NCAA
75.2Avg total
34.8Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)33.239.372.5-6.123%40%
Last 30 at home (17)34.635.970.5-1.235%29%
Last 30 away (13)31.343.875.2-12.58%54%
Last 10 (10)34.840.475.2-5.630%40%
Last 5 (5)36.238.074.2-1.840%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (24)32.341.774.0-9.412%46%
vs Similar (1)26.033.059.0-7.00%0%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)39.531.070.5+8.575%25%
This opponent (North Dakota St) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
NORT win
no forecast
@ 1.62
CSU win
no forecast
@ 2.32
1st half Spread North Dakota St -2.5 · main line
NORT -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
CSU +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 73.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
North Dakota St 1st half total 37.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
CSU Bakersfield 1st half total 36 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread North Dakota St -3.5
NORT -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
CSU +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
1st half Spread North Dakota St -1.5
NORT -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
CSU +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
1st half Over/Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread North Dakota St -4.5
NORT -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.32
CSU +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Over/Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half Over/Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread North Dakota St -5.5
NORT -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.57
CSU +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread North Dakota St -6.5
NORT -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.87
CSU +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.36
1st half Spread North Dakota St +1.5
NORT +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
CSU -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.57
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
NORT
no forecast
@ 1.67
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
CSU
no forecast
@ 2.40

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
NORT win + total 153.5
🔒 Pro
CSU win + total 153.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: NORT leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
North Dakota St -979.8%2.80
Bet365
2.80		----+46.8pp
North Dakota St over 82.573.0%2.50
Betano
2.50		----+36.8pp
North Dakota St (regulation)93.0%1.57
Marathon Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57		---+35.8pp
North Dakota St win94.0%1.50
Marathon Bet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Bet365
1.52
WilliamHill
1.50		+31.1pp
CSU Bakersfield under 7672.1%1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84		----+21.9pp
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 49 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
North Dakota St wins
2
CSU Bakersfield wins
DateGameScore
08/11/26CSU Bakersfield v North Dakota St91-80
12/12/25CSU Bakersfield v North Dakota St69-80
24/12/24North Dakota St v CSU Bakersfield94-60
12/11/24CSU Bakersfield v North Dakota St86-81
North Dakota Stlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HIllinois State82-81 OT
08/11/26ACSU Bakersfield80-91
07/11/26ASan Francisco70-79
05/11/26ASt. Marys (CA)64-105
03/11/26HMN-Crookston90-59
19/03/26AMichigan State67-92
09/03/26HNorth Dakota70-62
08/03/26HNebraska O.74-50
06/03/26HOral Roberts76-65
28/02/26HNorth Dakota96-63
CSU Bakersfieldlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AWestern Illinois91-83
08/11/26HNorth Dakota St91-80
06/11/26HStanton93-54
08/03/26ACal Poly76-108
06/03/26HCS Northridge84-86
01/03/26HLong Beach State87-88
27/02/26AUC San Diego72-84
22/02/26HCS Fullerton80-88
20/02/26AUC Riverside65-93
13/02/26HHawaii74-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Dakota St
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW40%
HomeWW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %40%100%0%
Points / game77.286.071.3
Allowed / game83.070.091.7
Point differential-5.8+16.0-20.3
Avg total160.2156.0163.0
Over 153.560%50%67%
Win by 10+20%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %20%50%0%
CSU Bakersfield
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game91.792.091.0
Allowed / game72.367.083.0
Point differential+19.3+25.0+8.0
Avg total164.0159.0174.0
Over 153.567%50%100%
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Summit League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 South Dakota St.440100%72.857.5+15.2
2 Nebraska O.53260%68.277.0-8.8
3 Oral Roberts42250%75.560.8+14.8
4 St. Thomas (Minn.)52340%82.478.2+4.2
5 UMKC52340%75.477.8-2.4
6 North Dakota St52340%77.283.0-5.8
7 North Dakota41325%72.886.8-14.0
8 South Dakota Coyotes51420%84.482.8+1.6
9 Denver3030%60.371.7-11.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UC Irvine330100%91.061.7+29.3
2 UC Santa Barbara330100%83.761.7+22.0
3 CSU Bakersfield330100%91.772.3+19.3
4 Hawaii43175%81.863.0+18.8
5 UC Riverside43175%83.567.8+15.8
6 UC Davis43175%74.064.0+10.0
7 CS Fullerton32167%88.786.0+2.7
8 UC San Diego32167%87.786.7+1.0
9 Cal Poly42250%79.084.8-5.8
10 CS Northridge31233%84.381.0+3.3
11 Long Beach State31233%65.069.3-4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.