North Dakota St will host Illinois State on 13 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup that the Pythia model deems a clear favourite for the former, assigning a 76% chance of victory largely because of their 1-3 season record, 76.0 points scored per game and 83.5 points allowed per game, while Illinois State sits at 1-2 with 81.3 points scored and 73.7 allowed; the model also notes North Dakota St's 1-0 home record with 90.0 points for and 59.0 against, and Illinois State's 0-2 road record with 72.0 points for and 83.0 against. In the last five games North Dakota St won only once, losing to CSU Bakersfield 80-91, San Francisco 70-79 and St. Marys (CA) 64-105, whereas Illinois State has won twice, beating Central State (OH) 100-55 and losing to Purdue 59-76 and St. Marys (CA) 85-90. Historically the teams have met twice, both times Illinois State winning 77-68 in 2024. Pythia projects a 78-70 score, 148.6 total points, a 3.0-point home line with an 82% chance of covering, a 147.5 total line with a 52% over probability, and a 4% overtime likelihood, underscoring North Dakota St's advantage in the current season's numbers.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
North Dakota St winWon
75.6%fair 1.32
Best odds2.30
Implied43.1%
Edge+32.5pp
Illinois State winLost
24.4%fair 4.10
Best odds1.69
Implied56.9%
Edge-32.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (North Dakota St) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143Actual: Over 143
Over 143
63.2%
Under 143
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 148 · main lineActual: Over 148
Over 148
50.9%
@ 1.93+1.6pp
Under 148
49.1%
@ 1.88-1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.81
Over/Under 153Actual: Over 153
Over 153
38.6%
Under 153
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
📊 3. Team Totals
North Dakota St total 68.5Actual: North Dakota St over 68.5
Over 68.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under 68.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.50
North Dakota St total 72.5 · main lineActual: North Dakota St over 72.5
Over 72.5
71.6%
@ 1.88+21.6pp
Under 72.5
28.4%
@ 1.88-21.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
North Dakota St total 76.5Actual: North Dakota St over 76.5
Over 76.5
56.8%
@ 2.60+22.0pp
Under 76.5
43.2%
@ 1.39-22.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.39
Illinois State total 72Actual: Illinois State over 72
Over 72
42.9%
Under 72
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Illinois State total 76 · main lineActual: Illinois State over 76
Over 76
28.2%
@ 1.86-21.7pp
Under 76
71.8%
@ 1.85+21.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Illinois State total 80Actual: Illinois State over 80
Over 80
16.7%
Under 80
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread North Dakota St -0.5Actual: North Dakota St -0.5
NORT -0.5
75.6%
ILLI +0.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
ILLI
No market prices yet.
Spread North Dakota St +2.5 · main lineActual: North Dakota St +2.5
NORT +2.5
80.6%
@ 1.96+31.5pp
ILLI -2.5
19.4%
@ 1.89-31.5pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.92
1xBet
1.91
ILLI
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.82
Marathon Be
1.81
SBO
1.81
Spread North Dakota St +5.5Actual: North Dakota St +5.5
NORT +5.5
86.9%
@ 1.67+26.7pp
ILLI -5.5
13.1%
@ 2.39-26.7pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
ILLI
Pinnacle
2.39
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.18
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
North Dakota StIllinois State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (North Dakota St) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Illinois State win
NORT win
no forecast
@ 2.12
ILLI win
no forecast
@ 1.72
2nd half Spread North Dakota St +1.5 · main lineActual: North Dakota St +1.5
NORT +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
ILLI -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
NORT
no forecast
@ 2.18
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
ILLI
no forecast
@ 1.78
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
North Dakota St (regulation)
73.2%
2.35
Marathon Bet
2.36
Betano
2.35
-
-
-
+35.0pp
Lost
North Dakota St -2
72.2%
2.45
Bet365
2.45
-
-
-
-
+34.2pp
Lost
North Dakota St -1
75.0%
2.30
Pinnacle
2.35
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
+34.2pp
Push
North Dakota St +1
77.2%
2.16
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+34.1pp
Won
North Dakota St -1.5
73.3%
2.33
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
+33.6pp
Lost
North Dakota St +2
80.0%
2.01
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.98
-
-
+33.3pp
Won
North Dakota St +1.5
77.7%
2.11
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.05
-
-
+33.2pp
Won
North Dakota St win
75.6%
2.22
Betano
2.30
WilliamHill
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Marathon Bet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.23
+32.5pp
Won
North Dakota St +2.5
80.6%
1.92
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
+31.5pp
Won
North Dakota St +3
82.3%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.85
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
-
+30.6pp
Won
North Dakota St +3.5
82.7%
1.79
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
BetVictor
1.78
SBO
1.78
+28.8pp
Won
North Dakota St +4
84.5%
1.74
SBO
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.68
-
+28.5pp
Won
North Dakota St +5
86.6%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+28.2pp
Won
North Dakota St +6
88.4%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Won
North Dakota St +4.5
84.9%
1.73
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
+27.1pp
Won
North Dakota St +6.5
88.6%
1.51
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Won
North Dakota St +5.5
86.9%
1.60
Marathon Bet
1.67
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
-
+26.7pp
Won
North Dakota St +7
90.0%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Won
North Dakota St +7.5
90.2%
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Won
North Dakota St +8
91.4%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+24.5pp
Won
North Dakota St +8.5
91.6%
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
North Dakota St over 72
74.0%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Won
North Dakota St +9
92.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Won
North Dakota St +9.5
92.7%
1.32
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
North Dakota St over 71.5
74.8%
1.78
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.75
-
-
+22.0pp
Won
Illinois State under 76
71.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Lost
North Dakota St over 72.5
71.6%
1.86
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+21.6pp
Won
North Dakota St +10
93.7%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
North Dakota St +10.5
93.8%
1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
North Dakota St over 70.5
77.9%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Won
North Dakota St over 73
70.5%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Won
North Dakota St +11.5
94.7%
1.24
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
North Dakota St over 69.5
80.7%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Illinois State under 76.5
72.7%
1.75
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.62
-
+17.7pp
Lost
North Dakota St +12.5
95.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
Illinois State under 77.5
75.8%
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Lost
Illinois State under 78.5
78.6%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Lost
Illinois State under 79.5
81.3%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Lost
Illinois State under 80.5
83.7%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Lost
North Dakota St +17.5
98.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
North Dakota St +22.5
99.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.8%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Illinois State over 56.5
91.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Illinois State +22.5
89.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Illinois State over 58.5
87.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Illinois State over 60.5
83.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Illinois State +17.5
80.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
Illinois State over 62.5
77.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
Illinois State over 64.5
71.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-13.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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