PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
North Dakota hosts Siu Edwardsville on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the North Dakota squad and predicting a 64% chance of a home win. North Dakota has gone 1-3 this season, scoring 72.8 points per game and allowing 86.8, while Siu Edwardsville is 2-3, averaging 71.6 points and conceding 72.8. At home North Dakota is 0-1, 71.0 points for and 80.0 against, whereas Siu Edwardsville has struggled on the road, 0-3, 60.7 points for and 88.0 against. In the last five outings North Dakota won once and lost four, with a recent loss to Montana 71-80 at home, a loss to Clemson 77-92 away and a win over Winthrop 93-90 away; Siu Edwardsville also won twice and lost three, suffering defeats to Duke 47-90, Missouri 58-96 and Lipscomb 77-78, all away. The Pythia model projects a 74-70 score, a total of 144.2 points, and a 5% chance of overtime, while the home team covers the spread with a 64% probability. The game will hinge on North Dakota's ability to keep the margin above five points.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 72.8 | 86.8 | 159.5 | -14.0 | 25% |
| Season at home (1) | 71.0 | 80.0 | 151.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| Season away (3) | 73.3 | 89.0 | 162.3 | -15.7 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.4 | 80.7 | 154.1 | -7.3 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.6 | 83.4 | 154.0 | -12.8 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (13) | 70.2 | 83.8 | 154.0 | -13.5 | 31% |
| vs Similar (12) | 81.4 | 78.8 | 160.2 | +2.7 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 80.0 | 68.5 | 148.5 | +11.5 | 75% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 71.6 | 72.8 | 144.4 | -1.2 | 40% |
| Season at home (2) | 88.0 | 50.0 | 138.0 | +38.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 60.7 | 88.0 | 148.7 | -27.3 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 67.8 | 68.0 | 135.8 | -0.2 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.6 | 72.8 | 144.4 | -1.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 52.5 | 93.0 | 145.5 | -40.5 | 0% |
| vs Similar (9) | 69.4 | 68.3 | 137.8 | +1.1 | 56% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (16) | 69.0 | 62.9 | 131.9 | +6.1 | 56% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (29) | 36.1 | 37.3 | 73.4 | -1.2 | 45% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 38.4 | 34.9 | 73.3 | +3.4 | 64% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 34.0 | 39.5 | 73.5 | -5.5 | 27% | - |
| Last 10 (9) | 35.4 | 38.4 | 73.9 | -3.0 | 44% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.0 | 39.2 | 72.2 | -6.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (12) | 32.5 | 38.6 | 71.1 | -6.1 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 38.5 | 37.8 | 76.2 | +0.8 | 58% | - |
| vs Weaker (4) | 37.8 | 36.0 | 73.8 | +1.8 | 50% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 32.2 | 31.5 | 63.7 | +0.7 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 34.4 | 30.3 | 64.7 | +4.1 | 69% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 29.7 | 32.9 | 62.6 | -3.1 | 36% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.5 | 34.3 | 64.8 | -3.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 31.0 | 37.6 | 68.6 | -6.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 22.0 | 45.5 | 67.5 | -23.5 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 33.7 | 36.4 | 70.1 | -2.8 | 22% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (16) | 31.2 | 28.1 | 59.3 | +3.2 | 69% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Montana | 71-80 |
| 10/11/26 | A | Clemson | 77-92 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Winthrop | 93-90 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Minnesota | 50-85 |
| 09/03/26 | A | North Dakota St | 62-70 |
| 08/03/26 | A | St. Thomas (Minn.) | 67-66 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Denver | 83-67 |
| 28/02/26 | A | North Dakota St | 63-96 |
| 21/02/26 | A | South Dakota St. | 83-91 |
| 20/02/26 | H | UMKC | 85-70 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Duke | 47-90 |
| 10/11/26 | A | Missouri | 58-96 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Lipscomb | 77-78 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Concordia Illinois | 85-61 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Eureka | 91-39 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Eastern Illinois | 71-77 OT |
| 28/02/26 | H | Eastern Illinois | 77-50 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Western Illinois | 67-47 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Tennessee State | 53-80 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Tennessee Tech | 52-62 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLL | 25% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | LWL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 25% | 0% | 33% |
| Points / game | 72.8 | 71.0 | 73.3 |
| Allowed / game | 86.8 | 80.0 | 89.0 |
| Point differential | -14.0 | -9.0 | -15.7 |
| Avg total | 159.5 | 151.0 | 162.3 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLLL | 40% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 40% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 71.6 | 88.0 | 60.7 |
| Allowed / game | 72.8 | 50.0 | 88.0 |
| Point differential | -1.2 | +38.0 | -27.3 |
| Avg total | 144.4 | 138.0 | 148.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 40% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Dakota St. | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 72.8 | 57.5 | +15.2 |
| 2 |  Nebraska O. | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 68.2 | 77.0 | -8.8 |
| 3 |  Oral Roberts | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 75.5 | 60.8 | +14.8 |
| 4 |  St. Thomas (Minn.) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 82.4 | 78.2 | +4.2 |
| 5 |  UMKC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 77.8 | -2.4 |
| 6 |  North Dakota St | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 77.2 | 83.0 | -5.8 |
| 7 | North Dakota | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 72.8 | 86.8 | -14.0 |
| 8 |  South Dakota Coyotes | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 84.4 | 82.8 | +1.6 |
| 9 |  Denver | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 60.3 | 71.7 | -11.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tennessee State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 98.0 | 77.8 | +20.2 |
| 2 |  UT Martin | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 85.0 | 74.2 | +10.8 |
| 3 |  Southeast Missouri State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.8 | 77.5 | +2.2 |
| 4 |  Tennessee Tech | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 92.0 | 90.0 | +2.0 |
| 5 |  Morehead State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.0 | 81.2 | -4.2 |
| 6 |  Lindenwood | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 82.0 | 69.8 | +12.2 |
| 7 | Siu Edwardsville | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 71.6 | 72.8 | -1.2 |
| 8 |  Southern Indiana | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 78.0 | 66.5 | +11.5 |
| 9 |  Western Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.5 | 73.2 | +1.2 |
| 10 |  UALR | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 76.0 | 85.5 | -9.5 |
| 11 |  Eastern Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 69.0 | 80.0 | -11.0 |
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