Oklahoma State faces Incarnate Word on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Cowboys who are projected to win 74% of the time against the Cardinals who have a 26% chance of victory. The Cowboys are expected to outscore the Cardinals 81-74, giving a total of 155.1 points, while the over on the 159.5 line has a 39% probability; a 4% chance of overtime is also noted. Oklahoma State's last five outings include two wins and three losses, with a recent 92-83 away win over Colorado, a 88-95 loss to TCU away, and a 75-82 home defeat to Houston. Incarnate Word's recent five games mirror that pattern, with two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 72-60 home victory over Lamar, a 68-76 home loss to Stephen F. Austin, and a 49-54 away loss to Northwestern St. The Cowboys' projected edge and the Cardinals' recent struggles suggest a competitive contest, but the data points to Oklahoma State's likelihood of covering the spread and securing the win.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oklahoma State winWon
74.5%fair 1.34
Best odds1.01
Implied94.5%
Edge-20.1pp
Incarnate Word winLost
25.5%fair 3.92
Best odds41.00
Implied5.5%
Edge+20.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Oklahoma State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
50.7%
@ 1.44-14.3pp
Under 154.5
49.3%
@ 2.72+14.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 159.5 · main lineActual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
38.8%
@ 1.85-11.8pp
Under 159.5
61.2%
@ 2.00+11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.95
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 164.5Actual: Under 164.5
Over 164.5
27.9%
@ 2.40-11.4pp
Under 164.5
72.1%
@ 1.53+11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Oklahoma State total 89.5Actual: Oklahoma State over 89.5
Over 89.5
20.6%
@ 1.38-44.9pp
Under 89.5
79.4%
@ 2.62+44.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.62
Oklahoma State total 93.5 · main lineActual: Oklahoma State under 93.5
Over 93.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 93.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
BetVictor
1.95
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Oklahoma State total 97.5Actual: Oklahoma State under 97.5
Over 97.5
no forecast
@ 2.42
Under 97.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.45
Incarnate Word total 62.5Actual: Incarnate Word under 62.5
Over 62.5
86.4%
@ 1.40+21.9pp
Under 62.5
13.6%
@ 2.55-21.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
Incarnate Word total 66.5 · main lineActual: Incarnate Word under 66.5
Over 66.5
75.9%
@ 1.91+26.1pp
Under 66.5
24.1%
@ 1.88-26.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Under
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Incarnate Word total 70.5Actual: Incarnate Word under 70.5
Over 70.5
62.1%
@ 2.60+27.3pp
Under 70.5
37.9%
@ 1.39-27.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.39
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Oklahoma State -30.5Actual: Oklahoma State -30.5
OKLA -30.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
INCA +30.5
no forecast
@ 1.58
Best 5 market prices
OKLA
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.22
INCA
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
Spread Oklahoma State -27.5 · main lineActual: Oklahoma State -27.5
OKLA -27.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
INCA +27.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
OKLA
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
INCA
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Oklahoma State -24.5Actual: Oklahoma State -24.5
OKLA -24.5
7.2%
@ 1.58-51.5pp
INCA +24.5
92.8%
@ 2.25+51.5pp
Best 5 market prices
OKLA
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
INCA
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Oklahoma StateIncarnate Word
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Oklahoma State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Incarnate Word win
OKLA win
no forecast
@ 1.08
INCA win
no forecast
@ 7.90
2nd half Spread Oklahoma State -12.5 · main lineActual: Incarnate Word +12.5
OKLA -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
INCA +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 84.5 · main lineActual: Under 84.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Oklahoma State (regulation)
OKLA
no forecast
@ 1.10
Draw
no forecast
@ 27.00
INCA
no forecast
@ 7.50
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Incarnate Word +17.5
81.3%
4.50
Bet365
4.50
-
-
-
-
+60.8pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +20
87.1%
3.40
Bet365
3.40
-
-
-
-
+59.9pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +19.5
85.5%
3.55
Bet365
3.55
-
-
-
-
+59.3pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +21
88.7%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+58.7pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +20.5
87.3%
3.12
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.05
-
-
-
+57.7pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +22
90.2%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+57.2pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +21.5
88.9%
2.83
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.82
-
-
-
+56.3pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +22.5
90.4%
2.62
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.60
-
-
-
+55.2pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +23
91.6%
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
-
+55.0pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +24
92.7%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+53.1pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +23.5
91.7%
2.40
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
+53.0pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +25
93.8%
2.20
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
-
+51.6pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +24.5
92.8%
2.24
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
+51.5pp
Lost
Oklahoma State under 88.5
76.5%
2.94
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.87
-
-
-
+45.2pp
Lost
Oklahoma State under 89.5
79.4%
2.62
Betano
2.62
-
-
-
-
+44.9pp
Lost
Oklahoma State under 90.5
82.1%
2.45
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.40
-
-
-
+44.5pp
Lost
Oklahoma State under 91.5
84.6%
2.18
Betano
2.18
-
-
-
-
+43.0pp
Won
Incarnate Word over 66
78.2%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+28.0pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 67.5
72.7%
2.05
Betano
2.05
-
-
-
-
+27.4pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 65.5
78.9%
1.76
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.72
-
-
-
+26.3pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 66.5
75.9%
1.86
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
-
+26.1pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 67
75.1%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 64.5
81.6%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 63.5
84.1%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 62.5
86.4%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 60.5
90.3%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 61.5
88.5%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 59.5
91.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Under 163.5
70.1%
1.61
Marathon Bet
1.64
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Under 164
71.5%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Under 164.5
72.1%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Incarnate Word over 57.5
94.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Under 165
73.6%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Under 165.5
74.1%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
Under 166
75.5%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
Under 166.5
76.0%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Under 167
77.4%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Incarnate Word over 56.5
95.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Under 168
79.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 167.5
77.8%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Incarnate Word over 55.5
96.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Under 168.5
79.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Under 170.5
82.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Under 169.5
81.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Under 174.5
88.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Under 175.5
89.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Over 134.5
89.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Over 135.5
88.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Over 139.5
82.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Over 140.5
81.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.4pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 83.5
82.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.1pp
Won
Over 144.5
73.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Won
Over 145.5
71.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.8pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 81.5
77.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-14.1pp
Won
Oklahoma State over 73.5
77.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.8pp
Won
Oklahoma State over 74.5
74.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-17.9pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 79.5
71.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-18.3pp
Won
Oklahoma State (regulation)
72.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-19.0pp
Won
Oklahoma State win
74.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-20.1pp
Won
Oklahoma State over 75.5
71.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-20.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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