Oregon State faces Miss. Valley St. on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model ranking Oregon State as the clear favourite because of its undefeated 3-0 record, 97.3 points per game and 71.0 allowed per game, while Miss. Valley St. sits at 0-3, 62.3 points per game and 87.0 allowed per game. Oregon State has won all three of its games, including a 94-84 victory over East. Washington, a 96-68 win over California Baptist and a 102-61 win over Weber State, all at home, and its last five games show four wins and one loss; Miss. Valley St. has lost all five of its recent games, including a 66-100 loss to Oregon, a 64-77 loss to Washington and a 57-84 loss to Oklahoma, all away. The teams have not met before. Pythia gives Oregon State a 99% chance of winning, Miss. Valley St. a 1% chance, projecting a 92-61 score and 153.0 total points; the line is 153.5 with a 49% probability of over, and there is no chance of overtime. Oregon State's 97.3 points per game last season shows a dominant offensive pace.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oregon State winWon
99.3%fair 1.01
Best odds1.01
Implied94.8%
Edge+4.5pp
Miss. Valley St. winLost
0.7%fair 150.23
Best odds41.00
Implied5.2%
Edge-4.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 14:24 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Oregon State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152Actual: Under 152
Over 152
54.4%
@ 1.65-5.4pp
Under 152
45.6%
@ 2.30+5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.65
Bet365
1.55
Under
Bet365
2.30
Over/Under 157 · main lineActual: Under 157
Over 157
41.7%
@ 2.05-8.1pp
Under 157
58.3%
@ 1.89+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.68
Over/Under 162Actual: Under 162
Over 162
29.8%
@ 2.80-3.2pp
Under 162
70.2%
@ 1.38+3.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.80
Under
Bet365
1.38
📊 3. Team Totals
Oregon State total 89Actual: Oregon State under 89
Over 89
64.3%
Under 89
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oregon State total 93 · main lineActual: Oregon State under 93
Over 93
47.9%
@ 1.85-2.1pp
Under 93
52.1%
@ 1.85+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Oregon State total 97Actual: Oregon State under 97
Over 97
31.8%
Under 97
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miss. Valley St. total 56Actual: Miss. Valley St. over 56
Over 56
70.7%
Under 56
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miss. Valley St. total 60 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. over 60
Over 60
55.0%
@ 1.85+5.0pp
Under 60
45.0%
@ 1.85-5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Miss. Valley St. total 64Actual: Miss. Valley St. over 64
Over 64
38.5%
Under 64
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Oregon State -33.5Actual: Miss. Valley St. +33.5
OREG -33.5
42.1%
@ 1.85-12.3pp
MISS +33.5
57.9%
@ 2.10+12.3pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.82
BetVictor
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Be
1.72
MISS
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
2.05
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Spread Oregon State -30.5 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. +30.5
OREG -30.5
52.7%
@ 1.74-4.3pp
MISS +30.5
47.3%
@ 2.50+4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Marathon Be
1.74
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.50
MISS
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.15
Marathon Be
1.74
Spread Oregon State -27.5Actual: Miss. Valley St. +27.5
OREG -27.5
63.1%
@ 1.44-4.8pp
MISS +27.5
36.9%
@ 3.30+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.29
MISS
Bet365
3.30
Betano
2.55
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Oregon StateMiss. Valley St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Oregon StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Francisco
#191
W
50-28
50
28
+22
A13/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
L
18-36
18
36
-18
A16/02
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H22/02
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H26/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A01/03
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
L
30-32
30
32
-2
H09/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
24-38
24
38
-14
A10/03
NCAA
Weber State
#324
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H03/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#321
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H07/11
NCAA
East. Washington
#308
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H10/11
NCAA
71.4Avg total
36.2Scored
35.2Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 74.5
Last 30 (30)
34.0
35.9
69.9
-1.9
37%
40%
Last 30 at home (19)
34.6
35.0
69.6
-0.4
42%
32%
Last 30 away (11)
33.0
37.5
70.5
-4.5
27%
55%
Last 10 (10)
36.2
35.2
71.4
+1.0
50%
50%
Last 5 (5)
38.0
35.2
73.2
+2.8
60%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)
31.9
35.9
67.8
-3.9
26%
21%
vs Similar (7)
34.6
35.3
69.9
-0.7
43%
57%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)
43.0
37.0
80.0
+6.0
75%
100%
This opponent (Miss. Valley St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Oregon State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Oregon State win
OREG win
no forecast
@ 1.03
MISS win
no forecast
@ 12.50
2nd half Spread Oregon State -17.5 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. +17.5
OREG -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
MISS +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 79.5 · main lineActual: Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Oregon State 2nd half total 49.5 · main lineActual: Oregon State under 49.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Miss. Valley St. 2nd half total 31.5 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. over 31.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Spread Oregon State -16.5Actual: Miss. Valley St. +16.5
OREG -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
MISS +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Under 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Oregon State (regulation)
OREG
no forecast
@ 1.04
Draw
no forecast
@ 35.00
MISS
no forecast
@ 11.75
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Miss. Valley St. +39.5
76.6%
1.47
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. +40.5
79.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. +38.5
73.9%
1.52
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. +37.5
71.0%
1.59
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Oregon State under 98.5
72.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Oregon State (regulation)
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Oregon State win
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Oregon State over 74.5
96.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Oregon State over 73.5
97.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 162
70.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 44.5
95.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Oregon State over 76.5
94.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Under 163
72.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 46.5
93.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 163.5
72.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Oregon State over 77.5
93.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Oregon State over 75.5
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Under 162.5
70.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 55.5
71.8%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 52.5
81.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Oregon State over 78.5
92.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 54.5
75.1%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Oregon State -13.5
93.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Over 129.5
93.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 48.5
89.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 77.5
94.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Under 179.5
94.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 75.5
92.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Oregon State over 79.5
90.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Under 174.5
90.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 73.5
89.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Oregon State over 80.5
88.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 134.5
88.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Oregon State -15.5
91.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 50.5
85.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 53.5
78.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 51.5
83.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Oregon State -18.5
86.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Lost
Oregon State over 81.5
86.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Lost
Miss. Valley St. under 71.5
85.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Under 169.5
83.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 67.5
73.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 69.5
79.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Over 139.5
81.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Oregon State over 82.5
84.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Lost
Under 164.5
75.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Over 144.5
71.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Oregon State -23.5
75.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Lost
Miss. Valley St. under 70.5
82.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Oregon State over 84.5
79.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Lost
Oregon State over 83.5
81.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Lost
Oregon State -20.5
82.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Lost
Oregon State over 86.5
72.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Lost
Oregon State over 85.5
76.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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