Washington will host Miss. Valley St. on 9 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup that the Pythia model deems a 100% win for the home side, reflecting Washington's 1-0 season record, 90.0 points per game and 76.0 allowed per game, the best in the league at position 106, while Miss. Valley St. sits 0-1 with 57.0 points per game and 84.0 allowed per game at position 379. Washington's single home game saw a 90-76 victory over Colgate, and the team has won three of its last five games, whereas Miss. Valley St. has only one win in five, losing to Oklahoma, Grambling St. and Jackson State. In the only previous meeting, Washington beat USC 83-79 at home. The Pythia forecast projects a 93-60 score for Washington, a total of 153.0 points, with a 54% chance of the total exceeding the 151.5 line. The model assigns a 100% probability that Washington covers the spread, and there is no chance of overtime. Washington's early season dominance and Miss. Valley St.'s struggles suggest a decisive win for the home team.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Washington winWon
99.5%fair 1.00
Best odds1.01
Implied94.8%
Edge+4.7pp
Miss. Valley St. winLost
0.5%fair 202.65
Best odds100.00
Implied5.2%
Edge-4.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Washington) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
65.7%
@ 1.50+2.9pp
Under 146.5
34.3%
@ 2.60-2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
53.7%
@ 1.91+4.0pp
Under 151.5
46.3%
@ 2.00-4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.95
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.88
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
41.3%
@ 2.60-7.0pp
Under 156.5
58.7%
@ 1.83+7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.52
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.99
Pinnacle
1.96
Under
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.72
Betano
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Washington total 90.5Actual: Washington under 90.5
Over 90.5
59.9%
@ 1.62+2.6pp
Under 90.5
40.1%
@ 2.25-2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.05
Washington total 94.5 · main lineActual: Washington under 94.5
Over 94.5
43.9%
@ 2.15-6.1pp
Under 94.5
56.1%
@ 1.88+6.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.57
Washington total 98.5Actual: Washington under 98.5
Over 98.5
28.9%
@ 3.05-1.6pp
Under 98.5
71.1%
@ 1.34+1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.05
Under
Bet365
1.34
Miss. Valley St. total 55Actual: Miss. Valley St. over 55
Over 55
69.9%
Under 55
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miss. Valley St. total 59 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. over 59
Over 59
54.1%
@ 1.87+4.4pp
Under 59
45.9%
@ 1.85-4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Miss. Valley St. total 63Actual: Miss. Valley St. over 63
Over 63
37.6%
Under 63
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Washington -36Actual: Miss. Valley St. +36
WASH -36
no forecast
@ 2.05
MISS +36
no forecast
@ 1.79
Best 5 market prices
WASH
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathon Be
1.98
MISS
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Be
1.74
Bet365
1.71
Spread Washington -33 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. +33
WASH -33
no forecast
@ 1.86
MISS +33
no forecast
@ 2.05
Best 5 market prices
WASH
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.71
MISS
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Washington -30Actual: Miss. Valley St. +30
WASH -30
no forecast
@ 1.50
MISS +30
no forecast
@ 2.50
Best 5 market prices
WASH
Bet365
1.50
MISS
Bet365
2.50
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
WashingtonMiss. Valley St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Washington) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Washington win
WASH win
no forecast
@ 1.03
MISS win
no forecast
@ 13.00
2nd half Spread Washington -16.5 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. +16.5
WASH -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
MISS +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Washington 2nd half total 48.5 · main lineActual: Washington under 48.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Miss. Valley St. 2nd half total 30.5 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. over 30.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.78
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Spread Washington -17.5Actual: Miss. Valley St. +17.5
WASH -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
MISS +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Washington (regulation)
WASH
no forecast
@ 1.03
Draw
no forecast
@ 35.00
MISS
no forecast
@ 12.00
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Washington (regulation)
99.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Washington over 73.5
97.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Washington over 87.5
71.1%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Lost
Washington over 75.5
96.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Washington over 76.5
95.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Washington win
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Washington over 77.5
94.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Lost
Washington over 74.5
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Washington over 72.5
98.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Washington over 83.5
83.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Lost
Washington over 79.5
91.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Lost
Miss. Valley St. over 53.5
74.3%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Washington over 81.5
87.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Washington over 78.5
92.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Lost
Washington under 102.5
83.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Washington over 85.5
77.5%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Lost
Washington over 82.5
85.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Lost
Washington over 80.5
89.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Miss. Valley St. over 54.5
71.0%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Washington over 84.5
80.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Lost
Over 126.5
95.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Washington under 100.5
77.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Over 144.5
70.2%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
Washington -13.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
Washington over 86.5
74.4%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Lost
Over 144
71.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Lost
Washington under 98.5
71.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Washington under 101.5
80.5%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 51.5
80.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Over 131.5
91.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Washington -23.5
79.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Lost
Over 143.5
72.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Lost
Washington -18.5
89.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Lost
Washington under 99.5
74.5%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Over 141.5
76.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Lost
Under 176.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 52.5
77.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Over 136.5
84.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 73.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Under 171.5
87.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 71.5
87.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 68.5
80.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 69.5
83.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Under 166.5
80.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Under 161.5
70.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 67.5
77.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 65.5
71.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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