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Panathinaikos vs Maroussi Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 15:30
Projected 93-73
Projected total 166.2
Scheduled
Position#3
Record6-1
FormLWWLW
Points / game87.4
Allowed / game74.3
Vs
95%
■ PAO 95%■ MAR 5%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
3.8/10
Below normal
4.5/10
Below normal
Position#10
Record2-5
FormLLWLW
Points / game79.9
Allowed / game83.1
GreeceBasket LeagueRound 8· Telekom Center Athens
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Panathinaikos v Maroussi
21 Nov 2026
PAO v MAR
upcoming
25 Jan 2026
PAO92
MAR81
01 Dec 2024
PAO100
MAR74
09 Oct 2023
PAO82
MAR71
19 Dec 2011
PAO93
MAR84
11 Oct 2011
PAO93
MAR61
28 Nov 2010
PAO102
MAR65
11 Mar 2010
PAO82
MAR79
22 Nov 2009
PAO90
MAR73
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Panathinaikos host Maroussi in the Greek Basket League. Pythia makes Panathinaikos the favourite at 95% and projects 93-73, about 166 points in all (over 166.5: 49%). On the market's main spread (Panathinaikos -19.5) Pythia gives Panathinaikos 51% to cover. Overtime chance: 1%. Panathinaikos are 6-1 this season (87.4 scored, 74.3 allowed a game), form LWWLW; Maroussi are 2-5 this season (79.9 scored, 83.1 allowed a game), form LLWLW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Panathinaikos win
94.8%fair 1.05
Best odds1.01
Implied91.2%
Edge+3.6pp
Maroussi win
5.2%fair 19.34
Best odds12.00
Implied8.8%
Edge-3.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PanathinaikosGreeceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPanathinaikos
Date
Competition
Peristeri
#6
W
95-75
95
75
+20
97avg 84
H18/10
Basket League
Baskonia
#20
W
85-79
85
79
+6
84avg 84
H22/10
Euroleague
AS Karditsas
#5
W
78-64
78
64
+14
71avg 84
H24/10
Basket League
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
80-75
80
75
+5
77avg 84
H27/10
Euroleague
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
68-83
68
83
-15
59avg 84
A30/10
Euroleague
Aris
#4
L
91-101
91
101
-10
84avg 84
A01/11
Basket League
Real Madrid
#5
W
115-112 OT
115
112
+3
no box
A04/11
Euroleague
AEK Athens
#11
W
83-74
83
74
+9
no box
A08/11
Basket League
Barcelona
#4
L
74-76
74
76
-2
no box
H13/11
Euroleague
Kolossos Rhodes
#8
W
78-73
78
73
+5
no box
H15/11
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-13
26-16
23-17
20-29
20-21
23-19
20-14
22-25
19-15
12-24
19-17
28-8
18-19
22-18
20-24
20-14
18-21
19-24
14-16
17-22
15-18
29-28
24-33
23-22
24-18
27-30
23-25
27-28
14-19
23-21
21-15
25-19
17-17
16-15
24-11
17-33
26-15
19-20
21-13
12-25
165.9Avg total
84.7Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)87.474.3161.7+13.186%
Season at home (4)88.571.5160.0+17.0100%
Season away (3)86.078.0164.0+8.067%
Last 10 (10)84.781.2165.9+3.570%
Last 5 (5)88.287.2175.4+1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)82.883.4166.2-0.640%
vs Similar (6)89.291.3180.5-2.233%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)87.875.9163.8+11.984%
This opponent (Maroussi) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MaroussiGreeceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMaroussi
Date
Competition
Iraklis
#8
W
91-72
91
72
+19
86avg 76
A29/03
Basket League
Kolossos Rhodes
#10
W
108-93
108
93
+15
100avg 76
H18/04
Basket League
PAOK
#3
L
85-101
85
101
-16
72avg 76
A25/04
Basket League
AEK Athens
#11
L
70-91
70
91
-21
64avg 76
A03/10
Basket League
Mykonos
#12
L
79-82
79
82
-3
71avg 76
H10/10
Basket League
Aris
#4
L
57-74
57
74
-17
49avg 76
A17/10
Basket League
Peristeri
#6
L
81-83
81
83
-2
68avg 76
A24/10
Basket League
Promitheas
#14
W
87-76
87
76
+11
90avg 76
H31/10
Basket League
Olympiacos
#1
L
81-83
81
83
-2
no box
H08/11
Basket League
Vikos
#13
W
104-93
104
93
+11
no box
A15/11
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-26
27-21
21-12
22-13
25-23
29-17
29-27
25-26
20-28
26-26
24-26
15-21
12-18
22-28
16-18
20-27
22-21
20-15
21-28
16-18
13-15
15-22
15-23
14-14
23-23
22-24
14-13
22-23
25-9
22-12
23-23
17-32
20-24
21-17
24-22
16-20
32-18
23-23
27-28
22-24
169.1Avg total
84.3Scored
84.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)79.983.1163.0-3.329%
Season at home (3)82.380.3162.7+2.033%
Season away (4)78.085.2163.2-7.225%
Last 10 (10)84.384.8169.1-0.540%
Last 5 (5)82.081.8163.8+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)80.692.7173.3-12.18%
vs Similar (14)87.188.4175.5-1.236%
vs Weaker (3)90.083.7173.7+6.367%
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%1%1251%1302%1354%1406%1458%15010%15512%16012%16512%17010%1758%1806%1854%1902%1951%2001%2050%210
1%1252%1356%14510%15512%16510%1756%1852%1951%205
Pythia expects about 166 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 166.5.
Over/Under 161.5
Over 161.5
61.1%
@ 1.46-1.1pp
Under 161.5
38.9%
@ 2.40+1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.40
Over/Under 166.5 · main line
Over 166.5
49.1%
@ 1.85-0.8pp
Under 166.5
50.9%
@ 1.83+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Over/Under 171.5
Over 171.5
37.1%
@ 2.40-0.7pp
Under 171.5
62.9%
@ 1.46+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.46

📊 3. Team Totals

Panathinaikos total 89.5
Over 89.5
63.8%
Under 89.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos total 93.5 · main line
Over 93.5
48.4%
@ 1.84-0.9pp
Under 93.5
51.6%
@ 1.79+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.79
Panathinaikos total 97.5
Over 97.5
33.2%
Under 97.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maroussi total 69.5
Over 69.5
63.5%
Under 69.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maroussi total 73.5 · main line
Over 73.5
48.1%
@ 1.84-1.2pp
Under 73.5
51.9%
@ 1.79+1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.79
Maroussi total 77.5
Over 77.5
33.0%
Under 77.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-150%-121%-92%-62%-32%+04%+36%+67%+98%+129%+159%+1810%+219%+248%+276%+305%+334%+363%+392%+421%+451%+480%+51
0%-151%-92%-34%+37%+99%+1510%+218%+275%+333%+391%+450%+51
Margin from Panathinaikos's side (positive = Panathinaikos win). Pythia's expected margin is +20.0; Panathinaikos win by 1+ in 92% of simulations.
Spread Panathinaikos -22.5
PAO -22.5
41.3%
@ 2.12-1.5pp
MAR +22.5
58.7%
@ 1.59+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
PAO
1xBet
2.12
MAR
1xBet
1.59
Spread Panathinaikos -19.5 · main line
PAO -19.5
51.5%
@ 1.82+0.2pp
MAR +19.5
48.5%
@ 1.88-0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
PAO
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.75
MAR
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Spread Panathinaikos -16.5
PAO -16.5
61.5%
@ 1.50+1.0pp
MAR +16.5
38.5%
@ 2.30-1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
PAO
1xBet
1.50
MAR
1xBet
2.30

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +2.2+2.2Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: -0.6-0.6Q4Q4: -1.4-1.4Q4: -2.9-2.9
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +2.2+2.2Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: -0.6-0.6Q4Q4: -1.4-1.4Q4: -2.9-2.9
PanathinaikosMaroussi
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PanathinaikosLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Peristeri
#6
W
52-29
52
29
+23
H18/10
Basket League
Baskonia
#20
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H22/10
Euroleague
AS Karditsas
#5
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H24/10
Basket League
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H27/10
Euroleague
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
37-45
37
45
-8
A30/10
Euroleague
Aris
#4
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A01/11
Basket League
Real Madrid
#5
W
51-48
51
48
+3
A04/11
Euroleague
AEK Athens
#11
L
37-40
37
40
-3
A08/11
Basket League
Barcelona
#4
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H13/11
Euroleague
Kolossos Rhodes
#8
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H15/11
Basket League
80.4Avg total
41.3Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82.5
Last 30 (30)41.538.680.1+2.953%43%
Last 30 at home (18)43.237.180.3+6.167%44%
Last 30 away (12)39.040.879.8-1.833%42%
Last 10 (10)41.339.180.4+2.260%30%
Last 5 (5)42.040.282.2+1.860%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)35.840.075.8-4.220%20%
vs Similar (6)40.044.384.3-4.333%67%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)43.536.479.9+7.168%42%
This opponent (Maroussi) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MaroussiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iraklis
#8
W
48-47
48
47
+1
A29/03
Basket League
Kolossos Rhodes
#10
W
54-40
54
40
+14
H18/04
Basket League
PAOK
#3
L
46-54
46
54
-8
A25/04
Basket League
AEK Athens
#11
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A03/10
Basket League
Mykonos
#12
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H10/10
Basket League
Aris
#4
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A17/10
Basket League
Peristeri
#6
L
45-47
45
47
-2
A24/10
Basket League
Promitheas
#14
W
47-21
47
21
+26
H31/10
Basket League
Olympiacos
#1
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H08/11
Basket League
Vikos
#13
W
55-41
55
41
+14
A15/11
Basket League
85.0Avg total
44.0Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82.5
Last 30 (30)42.743.786.4-1.043%67%
Last 30 at home (14)44.842.687.4+2.157%71%
Last 30 away (16)40.944.685.6-3.731%62%
Last 10 (10)44.041.085.0+3.050%50%
Last 5 (5)43.237.480.6+5.840%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)40.446.486.8-6.023%69%
vs Similar (14)43.843.687.4+0.250%71%
vs Weaker (3)48.032.780.7+15.3100%33%
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Panathinaikos -11.5 · main line
PAO -11.5
44.3%
@ 1.94-3.4pp
MAR +11.5
55.7%
@ 1.77+3.4pp
1st half Over/Under 82.5 · main line
Over
53.2%
@ 1.80+1.8pp
Under
46.8%
@ 1.90-1.8pp
Panathinaikos 1st half total 46.5 · main line
Over
51.6%
@ 1.77+1.1pp
Under
48.4%
@ 1.81-1.1pp
Maroussi 1st half total 36.5 · main line
Over
50.8%
@ 1.84+2.2pp
Under
49.2%
@ 1.74-2.2pp
1st half Spread Panathinaikos -12.5
PAO -12.5
40.3%
@ 2.10-3.7pp
MAR +12.5
59.7%
@ 1.65+3.7pp
1st half Spread Panathinaikos -10.5
PAO -10.5
48.4%
@ 1.77-3.8pp
MAR +10.5
51.5%
@ 1.94+3.8pp
1st half Over/Under 84.5
Over
45.5%
@ 2.07+0.8pp
Under
54.5%
@ 1.67-0.8pp
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
PAO
84.3%
@ 1.09+2.0pp
Draw
2.4%
@ 25.00-1.2pp
MAR
13.3%
@ 6.34-0.8pp

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Q1: Panathinaikos (regulation)74.0%1.20
1xBet
1.20
-----0.3pp
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 5 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Panathinaikostheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Panathinaikos: 82.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
46%
34%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.619.6
56.6%
50.6%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.68.8
34.4%
34.4%26.4
🏀 Free throws23.617.0
72.0%
71.8%17.0
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Maroussitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Maroussi: 81.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.5 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
46%
34%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.520.3
54.1%
50.6%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.08.0
29.6%
34.4%24.0
🏀 Free throws21.516.5
76.7%
71.8%16.5
They take 64.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Panathinaikos
WLWWLLWWWW
Maroussi
WLWLLLLLWW
#3
League position
#10
+8.3
Net rating
-5.1
97.5
Offensive rating
92.3
89.3
Defensive rating
97.4
54.5%
Effective FG%
50.1%
49.2%
Opp. effective FG%
54.5%
16.5%
Turnover %
16.7%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.33
34.4%
3-point %
29.6%
65.1%
Assist %
62.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence97.5 · 92.3Defence89.3 · 97.4Shooting54.5% · 50.1%3-point %34.4% · 29.6%Ball care16.5% · 16.7%Free throws0.39 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)70% · 40%
■ Panathinaikos   ■ Maroussi
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
10
Panathinaikos wins
0
Maroussi wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HKolossos Rhodes78-73
13/11/26HBarcelona74-76
08/11/26AAEK Athens83-74
04/11/26AReal Madrid115-112 OT
01/11/26AAris91-101
30/10/26AAnadolu Efes68-83
27/10/26HOlimpia Milano80-75
24/10/26HAS Karditsas78-64
22/10/26HBaskonia85-79
18/10/26HPeristeri95-75
Maroussilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26AVikos104-93
08/11/26HOlympiacos81-83
31/10/26HPromitheas87-76
24/10/26APeristeri81-83
17/10/26AAris57-74
10/10/26HMykonos79-82
03/10/26AAEK Athens70-91
25/04/26APAOK85-101
18/04/26HKolossos Rhodes108-93
29/03/26AIraklis91-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Panathinaikos
Basket League 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW86%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %86%100%67%
Points / game87.488.586.0
Allowed / game74.371.578.0
Point differential+13.1+17.0+8.0
Avg total161.7160.0164.0
Over 166.543%50%33%
Win by 10+57%75%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Maroussi
Basket League 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW29%
HomeLWL33%
AwayLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %29%33%25%
Points / game79.982.378.0
Allowed / game83.180.385.2
Point differential-3.3+2.0-7.2
Avg total163.0162.7163.2
Over 166.514%0%25%
Win by 10+29%33%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olympiacos660100%85.867.8+18.0
2 PAOK770100%79.670.4+9.1
3 Panathinaikos76186%87.474.3+13.1
4 Aris65183%84.571.5+13.0
5 AS Karditsas74357%73.771.9+1.9
6 Peristeri74357%81.084.6-3.6
7 Iraklis73443%80.176.4+3.7
8 Kolossos Rhodes73443%79.681.3-1.7
9 Lefkadas73443%78.380.4-2.1
10 Maroussi72529%79.983.1-3.3
11 AEK Athens72529%75.179.6-4.4
12 Mykonos71614%72.684.4-11.9
13 Vikos71614%77.389.7-12.4
14 Promitheas71614%73.388.3-15.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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