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Pistoia vs Mestre Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 07 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#8
Record6-4
FormWLWWW
Points / game77.6
Allowed / game69.1
vs
Form · last 5 games
6.2/10
Above normal
4.3/10
Below normal
Position#11
Record5-5
FormLWWLW
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game76.1
ItalySerie A2Round 30· PalaCarrara
Other2026-27
Meetings · Pistoia v Mestre
07 Mar 2027
PIS v MEST
upcoming
09 Nov 2025
PIS74
MEST89
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pistoia win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Mestre win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PistoiaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPistoia
Date
Competition
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
62-63
62
63
-1
49avg 65
A27/09
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
L
77-84
77
84
-7
28avg 65
H04/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#6
L
70-78
70
78
-8
63avg 65
A11/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
W
89-70
89
70
+19
84avg 65
H18/10
Serie A2
Cento
#18
W
96-52
96
52
+44
103avg 65
A21/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
W
75-72
75
72
+3
70avg 65
A25/10
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#3
L
64-66
64
66
-2
54avg 65
H01/11
Serie A2
Montecatini
#20
W
86-71
86
71
+15
no box
A08/11
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
W
78-70
78
70
+8
no box
H11/11
Serie A2
Urania Milano
#19
W
79-65
79
65
+14
no box
A14/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-19
18-18
15-11
13-15
20-30
23-19
20-18
14-17
23-24
15-21
12-12
20-21
21-18
27-15
21-20
20-17
24-10
25-13
23-20
24-9
21-20
15-21
14-12
25-19
21-16
17-25
13-13
13-12
14-18
12-22
31-16
29-15
21-22
15-14
20-14
22-20
14-21
13-16
24-16
28-12
146.7Avg total
77.6Scored
69.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)77.669.1146.7+8.560%
Season at home (4)77.072.5149.5+4.550%
Season away (6)78.066.8144.8+11.267%
Last 10 (10)77.669.1146.7+8.560%
Last 5 (5)76.468.8145.2+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)73.683.0156.6-9.420%
vs Similar (12)78.382.7161.0-4.333%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)81.270.2151.5+11.075%
This opponent (Mestre) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MestreItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMestre
Date
Competition
Basket Torino
#7
W
79-57
79
57
+22
72avg 65
A27/09
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
49-88
49
88
-39
15avg 65
H03/10
Serie A2
Sassari
#10
L
74-87
74
87
-13
60avg 65
H10/10
Serie A2
Rimini
#4
L
76-91
76
91
-15
66avg 65
A18/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
93-71
93
71
+22
98avg 65
H21/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
L
70-77
70
77
-7
62avg 65
A25/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#5
W
70-63
70
63
+7
no box
H31/10
Serie A2
Pesaro
#12
W
85-73
85
73
+12
no box
A07/11
Serie A2
Cividale
#13
L
79-81
79
81
-2
no box
H11/11
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
W
85-73
85
73
+12
no box
A15/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-15
19-26
21-11
16-5
9-19
11-22
12-26
17-21
27-25
21-25
15-19
11-18
16-20
23-26
17-29
20-16
24-12
21-26
26-8
22-25
17-26
18-15
22-16
13-20
18-24
18-15
13-16
21-8
22-22
30-18
12-19
21-14
26-15
18-23
22-23
13-20
21-17
24-22
23-15
17-19
152.1Avg total
76.0Scored
76.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)76.076.1152.1-0.150%
Season at home (5)73.078.0151.0-5.040%
Season away (5)79.074.2153.2+4.860%
Last 10 (10)76.076.1152.1-0.150%
Last 5 (5)77.873.4151.2+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)74.785.7160.3-11.017%
vs Similar (16)78.276.7154.9+1.650%
vs Weaker (2)83.574.5158.0+9.050%
This opponent (Pistoia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +4.1+4.1Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +5.1+5.1Q4: +0.5+0.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +4.1+4.1Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +5.1+5.1Q4: +0.5+0.5
PistoiaMestre
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PistoiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A27/09
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H04/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#6
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A11/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
W
48-33
48
33
+15
H18/10
Serie A2
Cento
#18
W
49-23
49
23
+26
A21/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A25/10
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#3
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H01/11
Serie A2
Montecatini
#20
L
26-40
26
40
-14
A08/11
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H11/11
Serie A2
Urania Milano
#19
L
27-37
27
37
-10
A14/11
Serie A2
75.7Avg total
37.5Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.841.480.1-2.623%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.940.680.5-0.636%-
Last 30 away (16)37.842.179.8-4.312%-
Last 10 (10)37.538.275.7-0.720%-
Last 5 (5)32.639.071.6-6.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)36.240.376.5-4.120%-
vs Similar (12)41.544.586.0-3.025%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)37.938.075.9-0.125%-
This opponent (Mestre) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MestreLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Basket Torino
#7
W
42-41
42
41
+1
A27/09
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
20-41
20
41
-21
H03/10
Serie A2
Sassari
#10
L
48-50
48
50
-2
H10/10
Serie A2
Rimini
#4
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A18/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H21/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A25/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#5
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H31/10
Serie A2
Pesaro
#12
W
52-40
52
40
+12
A07/11
Serie A2
Cividale
#13
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H11/11
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
W
45-39
45
39
+6
A15/11
Serie A2
81.9Avg total
40.6Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.341.781.9-1.447%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.140.982.1+0.256%-
Last 30 away (14)39.342.581.8-3.236%-
Last 10 (10)40.641.381.9-0.750%-
Last 5 (5)42.439.481.8+3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)37.443.881.2-6.425%-
vs Similar (16)41.640.281.8+1.456%-
vs Weaker (2)47.040.587.5+6.5100%-
This opponent (Pistoia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pistoiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pistoia: 72.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.218.3
50.6%
51.2%36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.76.7
29.5%
34.5%20.1
🏀 Free throws21.916.1
73.5%
71.0%16.1
They take 58.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Mestretheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mestre: 73.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.315.8
44.8%
51.2%31.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.69.2
31.1%
34.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws19.714.6
74.1%
71.0%14.6
They take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pistoia
WWWLWWWLLL
Mestre
WLWWLWLLLW
#8
League position
#11
+12.8
Net rating
-7.9
98.5
Offensive rating
90.1
85.6
Defensive rating
98.0
48.1%
Effective FG%
45.6%
48.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.6%
8.8%
Turnover %
9.7%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.30
29.5%
3-point %
31.1%
54.0%
Assist %
43.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence98.5 · 90.1Defence85.6 · 98.0Shooting48.1% · 45.6%3-point %29.5% · 31.1%Ball care8.8% · 9.7%Free throws0.37 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Pistoia   ■ Mestre
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Pistoia wins
2
Mestre wins
DateGameScore
21/02/26Mestre v Pistoia90-85
09/11/25Pistoia v Mestre74-89
Pistoialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AUrania Milano79-65
11/11/26HCaserta78-70
08/11/26AMontecatini86-71
01/11/26HFortitudo Bologna64-66
25/10/26AJuVi Cremona75-72
21/10/26ACento96-52
18/10/26HVigevano89-70
11/10/26ASebastiani Rieti70-78
04/10/26HBasket Torino77-84
27/09/26ALibertas Livorno62-63
Mestrelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26AJuVi Cremona85-73
11/11/26HCividale79-81
07/11/26APesaro85-73
31/10/26HBrindisi70-63
25/10/26ACaserta70-77
21/10/26HRuvo Di Puglia93-71
18/10/26ARimini76-91
10/10/26HSassari74-87
03/10/26HLibertas Livorno49-88
27/09/26ABasket Torino79-57

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pistoia
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW60%
HomeLWLW50%
AwayLWWWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %60%50%67%
Points / game77.677.078.0
Allowed / game69.172.566.8
Point differential+8.5+4.5+11.2
Avg total146.7149.5144.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%25%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mestre
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW50%
HomeLLWWL40%
AwayWLLWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %50%40%60%
Points / game76.073.079.0
Allowed / game76.178.074.2
Point differential-0.1-5.0+4.8
Avg total152.1151.0153.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%20%60%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Libertas Livorno109190%80.968.5+12.4
2 Avellino Basket109190%80.873.9+6.9
3 Fortitudo Bologna108280%80.474.7+5.7
4 Rimini107370%81.272.5+8.7
5 Brindisi107370%78.274.4+3.8
6 Sebastiani Rieti107370%75.173.8+1.3
7 Basket Torino96367%72.972.0+0.9
8 Pistoia106460%77.669.1+8.5
9 Forli105550%82.078.9+3.1
10 Sassari105550%76.275.6+0.6
11 Mestre105550%76.076.1-0.1
12 Pesaro105550%79.679.7-0.1
13 Cividale105550%72.575.5-3.0
14 Vigevano104640%76.580.3-3.8
15 Caserta93633%79.682.2-2.7
16 JuVi Cremona102820%75.178.6-3.5
17 Ruvo Di Puglia102820%74.080.9-6.9
18 Cento102820%73.482.5-9.1
19 Urania Milano101910%74.682.7-8.1
20 Montecatini101910%67.181.9-14.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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