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Pittsburgh vs Florida State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 05 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 74-75
0-0 30-46 0-0 44-29
Position#282
Record11-18
FormLLWLW
Points / game70.0
Allowed / game71.2
Pittsburgh
USA
vs
Florida State 🏆
USA
Position#167
Record15-14
FormWWWLW
Points / game79.7
Allowed / game77.6
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Pittsburgh v Florida State
04 Mar 2026
PITT74
FLOR75
05 Mar 2024
PITT88
FLOR73
21 Jan 2023
PITT64
FLOR71
20 Feb 2021
PITT72
FLOR79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pittsburgh winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Florida State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PittsburghUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#128
L
72-81
72
81
-9
H24/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
80-76 OT
80
76
+4
H27/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
52-63
52
63
-11
A31/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
47-67
47
67
-20
A04/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
67-86
67
86
-19
H07/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
54-70
54
70
-16
H11/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
65-79
65
79
-14
A14/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
67-75
67
75
-8
A26/02
NCAA
California
#79
W
72-56
72
56
+16
A28/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
33-34
0-0
39-47
0-0
30-36
0-0
36-30
0-0
16-33
0-0
36-30
0-0
20-33
0-0
27-34
0-0
32-34
0-0
35-52
0-0
29-35
0-0
25-35
0-0
32-46
0-0
33-33
0-0
23-20
0-0
50-48
0-0
34-32
0-0
33-43
0-0
34-26
0-0
38-30
137.0Avg total
64.9Scored
72.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)70.071.2141.2-1.238%
Season at home (17)73.573.2146.8+0.347%
Season away (12)65.068.3133.3-3.325%
Last 10 (10)64.972.1137.0-7.230%
Last 5 (5)66.269.6135.8-3.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)65.473.9139.3-8.621%
vs Similar ◀ (7)74.471.6146.0+2.957%
vs Weaker (4)80.253.5133.8+26.875%
This opponent (Florida State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
80-83
80
83
-3
A24/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H29/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
88-80
88
80
+8
H31/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
82-79
82
79
+3
A07/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
58-61
58
61
-3
H11/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
92-69
92
69
+23
A14/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H17/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
70-65
70
65
+5
A21/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
73-83
73
83
-10
H25/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
80-71
80
71
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
34-46
0-0
46-37
0-0
36-23
0-0
27-38
0-0
41-33
0-0
47-47
0-0
41-32
0-0
41-47
0-0
32-32
0-0
26-29
0-0
39-42
0-0
53-27
0-0
32-42
0-0
48-30
0-0
33-36
0-0
37-29
0-0
32-38
0-0
41-45
0-0
41-36
0-0
39-35
149.0Avg total
76.6Scored
72.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)79.777.6157.3+2.152%
Season at home (18)82.277.3159.4+4.956%
Season away (11)75.778.2153.9-2.545%
Last 10 (10)76.672.4149.0+4.270%
Last 5 (5)79.072.0151.0+7.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)70.882.5153.3-11.725%
vs Similar ◀ (11)82.579.1161.6+3.555%
vs Weaker (7)88.065.3153.3+22.786%
This opponent (Pittsburgh) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -4.6-4.6Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -3.0-3.0Q4: +4.1+4.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -4.6-4.6Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -3.0-3.0Q4: +4.1+4.1
PittsburghFlorida State
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PittsburghLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#128
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H24/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H27/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
16-33
16
33
-17
A31/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
20-33
20
33
-13
A04/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H07/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H11/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A14/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
23-20
23
20
+3
H21/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A26/02
NCAA
California
#79
W
34-26
34
26
+8
A28/02
NCAA
61.2Avg total
28.3Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.533.365.8-0.743%-
Last 30 at home (17)33.834.368.1-0.547%-
Last 30 away (13)30.831.962.8-1.138%-
Last 10 (10)28.332.961.2-4.630%-
Last 5 (5)30.431.862.2-1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)30.635.165.6-4.537%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)34.032.666.6+1.443%-
vs Weaker (4)39.226.065.2+13.275%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A24/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
36-23
36
23
+13
H29/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H31/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A07/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H11/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A14/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H17/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A21/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
32-38
32
38
-6
H25/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A28/02
NCAA
72.1Avg total
36.1Scored
36.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.736.974.6+0.750%-
Last 30 at home (19)38.235.673.8+2.658%-
Last 30 away (11)36.739.376.0-2.536%-
Last 10 (10)36.136.072.1+0.140%-
Last 5 (5)35.438.874.2-3.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)34.341.776.0-7.325%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)38.735.073.7+3.764%-
vs Weaker (7)41.731.973.6+9.971%-
This opponent (Pittsburgh) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Pittsburgh wins
4
Florida State wins
DateGameScore
16/01/25Florida State v Pittsburgh82-70
06/03/24Pittsburgh v Florida State88-73
11/02/23Florida State v Pittsburgh75-83
21/01/23Pittsburgh v Florida State64-71
10/02/22Florida State v Pittsburgh51-56
20/02/21Pittsburgh v Florida State72-79
19/02/20Florida State v Pittsburgh82-67
Pittsburghlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26ACalifornia72-56
26/02/26AStanford67-75
21/02/26HNotre Dame73-68
14/02/26ANorth Carolina65-79
11/02/26HDuke54-70
07/02/26HSMU Mustangs67-86
04/02/26AVirginia47-67
31/01/26AClemson52-63
27/01/26HWake Forest80-76 OT
24/01/26HNC State72-81
Florida Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26AGeorgia Tech80-71
25/02/26HMiami (FL)73-83
21/02/26AClemson70-65
17/02/26HBoston College80-72
14/02/26AVirginia Tech92-69
11/02/26HVirginia58-61
07/02/26ANotre Dame82-79
31/01/26HStanford88-80
29/01/26HCalifornia63-61
24/01/26ASMU Mustangs80-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pittsburgh
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW38%
HomeLWLLW47%
AwayLLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291712
Win %38%47%25%
Points / game70.073.565.0
Allowed / game71.273.268.3
Point differential-1.2+0.3-3.3
Avg total141.2146.8133.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%29%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %3%6%0%
Florida State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW52%
HomeWWLWL56%
AwayLWWWW45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291811
Win %52%56%45%
Points / game79.782.275.7
Allowed / game77.677.378.2
Point differential+2.1+4.9-2.5
Avg total157.3159.4153.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%39%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)25% (4)60% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3028293%83.262.5+20.6
2 Virginia3126584%80.269.4+10.8
3 Miami (FL)3024680%82.570.0+12.5
4 North Carolina3024680%80.470.9+9.6
5 Louisville3021970%85.771.9+13.8
6 Clemson3021970%74.366.0+8.4
7 California3021970%77.772.3+5.4
8 NC State30191163%83.575.7+7.8
9 SMU Mustangs30191163%85.278.0+7.3
10 Virginia Tech30191163%78.774.2+4.5
11 Stanford29181162%75.872.4+3.3
12 Florida State29151452%79.777.6+2.1
13 Wake Forest30151550%78.877.0+1.8
14 Syracuse30151550%75.474.0+1.4
15 Notre Dame29131645%74.574.9-0.4
16 Pittsburgh29111838%70.071.2-1.2
17 Georgia Tech30111937%73.777.4-3.7
18 Boston College30102033%67.170.7-3.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pittsburgh03004474
Florida State04602975
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