Providence faces Colorado on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with Providence the clear favourite as the model rates them 87% to win, reflecting their 2-1 season record, 73.0 points per game and 59.3 allowed per game, and a 2-0 home record with 80.5 points scored and 55.5 allowed; Colorado also sits 2-1 with 81.0 points per game and 70.3 allowed, but their recent five games show only two wins. Providence's last five games include a 78-55 home win over Bryant University, a 58-67 away loss to Nebraska, and a 83-56 home victory over Maine Black Bears, while Colorado's recent results feature a 83-75 home win over San Diego Toreros, a 66-77 home loss to San Diego State, and a 94-59 home win over Abilene Christian. In their only prior meeting, Colorado beat Providence 97-88 on 14 November 2025. Pythia projects a 84-71 score, 155.4 total points, and gives Providence a 62% chance to cover the -9.5 spread and a 57% chance of the over on the 152.5 line, with a 3% overtime probability. The game will hinge on Providence's defensive edge, which has held opponents to 59.3 points per game so far this season.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Providence winWon
87.1%fair 1.15
Best odds1.16
Implied83.0%
Edge+4.1pp
Colorado winLost
12.9%fair 7.77
Best odds6.00
Implied17.0%
Edge-4.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Providence) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147.5Actual: Under 147.5
Over 147.5
68.3%
@ 1.40+0.1pp
Under 147.5
31.7%
@ 3.15-0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.70
Over/Under 152.5 · main lineActual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
56.6%
@ 1.83+3.5pp
Under 152.5
43.4%
@ 2.22-3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Be
1.75
WilliamHill
1.73
Betano
1.62
Under
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.15
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.95
BetVictor
1.85
Over/Under 157.5Actual: Under 157.5
Over 157.5
44.4%
@ 2.14-0.0pp
Under 157.5
55.6%
@ 1.73+0.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
Marathon Be
2.01
WilliamHill
2.00
Under
WilliamHill
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.67
Marathon Be
1.66
Bet365
1.66
📊 3. Team Totals
Providence total 77.5Actual: Providence under 77.5
Over 77.5
74.9%
@ 1.37+1.3pp
Under 77.5
25.1%
@ 3.65-1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.65
1xBet
3.50
Betano
2.67
Providence total 81.5 · main lineActual: Providence under 81.5
Over 81.5
60.6%
@ 1.87+6.5pp
Under 81.5
39.4%
@ 2.50-6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
Under
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.10
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Providence total 85.5Actual: Providence under 85.5
Over 85.5
44.7%
@ 2.18+3.1pp
Under 85.5
55.3%
@ 1.55-3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.18
Under
Betano
1.55
Colorado total 68Actual: Colorado under 68
Over 68
62.4%
Under 68
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colorado total 72 · main lineActual: Colorado under 72
Over 72
46.2%
@ 1.88-3.4pp
Under 72
53.8%
@ 1.85+3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Colorado total 76Actual: Colorado under 76
Over 76
30.7%
Under 76
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Providence -14Push
PROV -14
45.9%
@ 2.30+3.6pp
COLO +14
54.1%
@ 1.66-3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
PROV
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.26
COLO
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.55
Spread Providence -11 · main lineActual: Providence -11
PROV -11
57.1%
@ 1.90+6.4pp
COLO +11
42.9%
@ 1.95-6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
PROV
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.81
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
COLO
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.90
SBO
1.88
Spread Providence -8Actual: Providence -8
PROV -8
67.8%
@ 1.50+5.3pp
COLO +8
32.2%
@ 2.50-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
PROV
Bet365
1.50
COLO
Bet365
2.50
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
ProvidenceColorado
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Providence -3
82.6%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Providence -2
85.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Providence -3.5
80.8%
1.28
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Providence (regulation)
85.4%
1.16
Marathon Bet
1.16
Betano
1.16
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Providence -2.5
82.9%
1.22
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Providence -4.5
78.0%
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Providence -6.5
72.1%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Providence -5.5
75.1%
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Providence -4
80.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Providence -5
77.4%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Providence -7
71.1%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Providence -6
74.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Over 145.5
72.6%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
Providence over 76.5
78.0%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Overtime: no
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Providence +8.5
96.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Providence over 68.5
94.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Lost
Providence +7.5
95.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Providence -1.5
85.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Providence win
87.1%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.16
Marathon Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+4.1pp
Won
Providence over 72.5
87.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Lost
Providence under 98.5
92.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Providence under 97.5
91.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Providence over 70.5
91.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Lost
Providence over 69.5
92.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Lost
Providence +3.5
91.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Providence under 95.5
87.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Providence under 94.5
85.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Colorado under 78.5
76.6%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Providence +2.5
90.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Colorado under 77.5
73.6%
1.30
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Providence under 91.5
77.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Colorado under 76.5
70.3%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Providence over 71.5
89.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Lost
Providence over 74.5
83.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
Providence under 96.5
89.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Colorado over 55.5
93.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Lost
Providence over 78.5
71.6%
1.32
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+1.7pp
Lost
Colorado under 79.5
79.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Colorado under 80.5
82.0%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Colorado over 56.5
92.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Lost
Providence over 73.5
85.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Providence under 93.5
82.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Colorado over 54.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Providence over 77.5
74.9%
1.29
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
+1.3pp
Lost
Providence under 89.5
70.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Under 176.5
90.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Under 164
70.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Under 166.5
75.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Colorado over 57.5
91.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Lost
Over 131.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Lost
Under 164.5
71.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Providence under 90.5
73.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.27
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Providence over 75.5
80.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Lost
Colorado over 58.5
89.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
Under 171.5
83.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Providence under 92.5
80.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Colorado +20.5
75.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Colorado +22.5
80.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Colorado +20
74.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Over 146.5
70.4%
1.30
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Lost
Colorado over 59.5
87.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Lost
Colorado +19.5
72.2%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Over 136.5
87.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Lost
Colorado over 60.5
85.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Lost
Colorado over 62.5
80.4%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Lost
Colorado over 61.5
83.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Lost
Colorado +21.5
77.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Colorado over 64.5
74.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Lost
Colorado over 65.5
71.0%
1.24
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Lost
Colorado over 63.5
77.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Lost
Colorado +19
71.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Over 141.5
80.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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