Nebraska hosts Providence on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Nebraska as the clear favourite thanks to its 1-0 record, 106.0 points per game and 64.0 allowed per game, compared with Providence's 1-0 record, 83.0 points per game and 56.0 allowed per game. Nebraska's single game, a 106-64 win over Le Moyne at home, shows a dominant offensive output, while Providence's 83-56 victory over Maine Black Bears at home demonstrates a solid defence. In the last five games, Nebraska went 3-2, and Providence went 2-3, indicating Nebraska has a slight edge in recent form. The teams have not met before, so there is no head-to-head history to consider. Pythia assigns a 95% probability that Nebraska will win and a 5% chance for Providence, projecting a final score of 86-67 and a total of 153.4 points. The home line is -3.5 with a 92% probability that Nebraska covers, and the over/under line is 156.5 with a 42% probability of the over. The game has a 1% chance of going into overtime, and Nebraska's last home win was a 106-64 triumph over Le Moyne.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nebraska winWon
95.2%fair 1.05
Best odds1.70
Implied56.5%
Edge+38.7pp
Providence winLost
4.8%fair 20.75
Best odds2.30
Implied43.5%
Edge-38.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Nebraska) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153Actual: Under 153
Over 153
50.8%
@ 1.57-8.1pp
Under 153
49.2%
@ 2.25+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.25
Over/Under 158 · main lineActual: Under 158
Over 158
38.3%
@ 2.05-11.5pp
Under 158
61.7%
@ 1.89+11.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.71
Over/Under 163Actual: Under 163
Over 163
26.9%
@ 2.75-6.8pp
Under 163
73.1%
@ 1.40+6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Under
Bet365
1.40
📊 3. Team Totals
Nebraska total 76Actual: Nebraska under 76
Over 76
86.3%
Under 76
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nebraska total 80 · main lineActual: Nebraska under 80
Over 80
75.2%
@ 1.85+24.9pp
Under 80
24.8%
@ 1.87-24.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Nebraska total 84Actual: Nebraska under 84
Over 84
60.2%
Under 84
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Providence total 73Actual: Providence under 73
Over 73
26.1%
Under 73
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Providence total 77 · main lineActual: Providence under 77
Over 77
14.9%
@ 1.85-35.1pp
Under 77
85.1%
@ 1.85+35.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Providence total 80.5Actual: Providence under 80.5
Over 80.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under 80.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.22
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Nebraska -5.5Actual: Nebraska -5.5
NEBR -5.5
89.2%
@ 2.30+49.1pp
PROV +5.5
10.8%
@ 1.55-49.1pp
Best 5 market prices
NEBR
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
PROV
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
Spread Nebraska -2.5 · main lineActual: Nebraska -2.5
NEBR -2.5
93.2%
@ 1.92+42.3pp
PROV +2.5
6.8%
@ 1.95-42.3pp
Best 5 market prices
NEBR
Bet365
1.92
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.83
PROV
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.92
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Nebraska +0.5Actual: Nebraska +0.5
NEBR +0.5
95.2%
PROV -0.5
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
NEBR
No market prices yet.
PROV
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
NebraskaProvidence
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Nebraska -9
83.1%
3.15
Bet365
3.15
-
-
-
-
+53.5pp
Push
Nebraska -10
80.7%
3.40
Bet365
3.40
-
-
-
-
+53.5pp
Lost
Nebraska -8
85.2%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+52.8pp
Won
Nebraska -9.5
81.2%
3.25
Betano
3.30
Bet365
3.20
-
-
-
+52.7pp
Lost
Nebraska -8.5
83.4%
3.00
Betano
3.00
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
+52.6pp
Won
Nebraska -7
87.2%
2.65
Bet365
2.65
-
-
-
-
+52.1pp
Won
Nebraska -7.5
85.5%
2.72
Betano
2.72
Bet365
2.72
-
-
-
+51.6pp
Won
Nebraska -6
89.0%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+51.5pp
Won
Nebraska -10.5
78.7%
3.38
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.25
-
-
-
+51.3pp
Lost
Nebraska -6.5
87.4%
2.52
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.50
-
-
-
+50.8pp
Won
Nebraska -5
90.6%
2.33
Pinnacle
2.40
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
+50.7pp
Won
Nebraska -4.5
90.7%
2.21
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.15
-
-
+49.1pp
Won
Nebraska -5.5
89.2%
2.30
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
+49.1pp
Won
Nebraska -4
92.0%
2.09
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
2.10
Marathon Bet
1.97
-
-
+48.3pp
Won
Nebraska -3.5
92.2%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.02
SBO
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.91
+46.2pp
Won
Nebraska -3
93.1%
1.96
Bet365
2.02
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathon Bet
1.92
SBO
1.92
-
+44.7pp
Won
Nebraska -2.5
93.2%
1.86
Bet365
1.92
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.83
+42.3pp
Won
Nebraska (regulation)
94.4%
1.69
Betano
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.69
-
-
-
+41.3pp
Won
Nebraska -2
94.4%
1.79
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
SBO
1.74
-
+41.2pp
Won
Providence under 73.5
74.7%
2.67
Betano
2.67
-
-
-
-
+40.8pp
Won
Providence under 72.5
71.4%
3.06
1xBet
3.25
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.92
-
-
+40.5pp
Won
Providence under 74.5
77.8%
2.46
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.42
-
-
-
+40.3pp
Won
Nebraska -1.5
94.5%
1.73
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
-
+39.3pp
Won
Nebraska -1
95.1%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+38.7pp
Won
Nebraska win
95.2%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.65
SBO
1.65
+38.7pp
Won
Providence under 76.5
83.1%
1.92
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.04
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
+37.0pp
Won
Providence under 77.5
85.5%
1.88
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
+36.4pp
Won
Nebraska +1
95.7%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+35.9pp
Won
Nebraska +1.5
95.7%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+35.3pp
Won
Providence under 77
85.1%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+35.1pp
Won
Nebraska +2
96.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+34.4pp
Won
Providence under 75.5
80.6%
2.15
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.03
WilliamHill
1.85
-
+34.3pp
Won
Nebraska +2.5
96.5%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+33.1pp
Won
Nebraska +3
96.9%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+31.6pp
Won
Nebraska +3.5
96.9%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+31.0pp
Won
Nebraska +4
97.4%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+28.8pp
Won
Nebraska +4.5
97.4%
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Won
Nebraska +5
97.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Won
Nebraska +5.5
97.8%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+26.2pp
Won
Nebraska over 78.5
79.0%
1.73
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.62
-
-
+25.9pp
Lost
Nebraska over 80
75.2%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Lost
Nebraska over 79.5
76.0%
1.83
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
+24.4pp
Lost
Nebraska over 80.5
72.7%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
+23.9pp
Lost
Nebraska +6.5
98.2%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
Nebraska over 76.5
84.3%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Lost
Nebraska over 77.5
81.8%
1.51
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Lost
Nebraska over 75.5
86.6%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Lost
Nebraska over 74.5
88.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+19.7pp
Lost
Under 165.5
77.5%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.8%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Under 162.5
71.6%
1.46
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Under 163.5
73.6%
1.41
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Under 164.5
75.6%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Under 163
73.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Under 162
70.9%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Under 164
75.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Under 166.5
79.3%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Under 171.5
86.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Under 176.5
92.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Over 131.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Lost
Nebraska under 99.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Nebraska under 98.5
88.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Over 136.5
85.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Lost
Nebraska under 96.5
84.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Over 141.5
76.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Lost
Nebraska under 94.5
79.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Won
Nebraska under 92.5
73.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-14.9pp
Won
Providence over 60.5
73.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-18.4pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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