Purdue will host Illinois State in the NCAA on 9 November 2026, and the Pythia model names Purdue the clear favourite with a 92% chance of winning, a projection of 84-68 and a 151.6 total; the model rates Purdue highly because of its 1-1 record, 79.0 points per game and 77.5 allowed, and its 1-1 home record of 79.0 to 77.5, while Illinois State also sits at 1-1 with 92.5 points per game and 72.5 allowed, but its road record is 0-1 with 85.0 to 90.0. Purdue's last five games include a 78-72 win over Gonzaga and a 80-83 loss to Valparaiso, whereas Illinois State's recent outings feature a 100-55 win over Central State (OH) and a 85-90 loss to St. Marys (CA). The Pythia spread is -16.0 for Purdue with a 50% chance of covering, and the over/under line is 145.0 with a 66% probability of the over; overtime is unlikely at 2%. The projected score of 84-68 reflects Purdue's dominant offensive output relative to Illinois State's defensive record.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 79.0 | 77.5 | 156.5 | +1.5 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 79.0 | 77.5 | 156.5 | +1.5 | 50% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 79.2 | 71.5 | 150.7 | +7.7 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.0 | 76.0 | 152.0 | +0.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 75.5 | 78.5 | 154.0 | -3.0 | 50% |
| vs Similar ◀ (7) | 78.0 | 71.0 | 149.0 | +7.0 | 71% |
| vs Weaker (19) | 82.3 | 71.4 | 153.7 | +10.8 | 74% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 92.5 | 72.5 | 165.0 | +20.0 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 100.0 | 55.0 | 155.0 | +45.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 85.0 | 90.0 | 175.0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.9 | 73.2 | 148.1 | +1.7 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.8 | 72.4 | 150.2 | +5.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 81.5 | 86.5 | 168.0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 67.1 | 67.6 | 134.7 | -0.4 | 57% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 84.6 | 66.5 | 151.1 | +18.2 | 77% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 69.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.1 | 33.3 | 72.3 | +5.8 | 70% | 57% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 40.9 | 34.4 | 75.4 | +6.5 | 76% | 76% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 36.6 | 31.8 | 68.4 | +4.8 | 62% | 31% |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.6 | 30.6 | 69.2 | +8.0 | 80% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.6 | 31.8 | 68.4 | +4.8 | 80% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 36.0 | 37.5 | 73.5 | -1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| vs Similar ◀ (7) | 38.3 | 32.3 | 70.6 | +6.0 | 71% | 43% |
| vs Weaker (19) | 40.0 | 32.7 | 72.7 | +7.3 | 74% | 63% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 69.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.7 | 31.6 | 68.4 | +5.1 | 57% | 47% |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 39.8 | 28.4 | 68.2 | +11.4 | 72% | 44% |
| Last 30 away (12) | 32.2 | 36.5 | 68.7 | -4.3 | 33% | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.7 | 34.3 | 69.0 | +0.4 | 40% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 32.0 | 69.6 | +5.6 | 60% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 36.0 | 36.5 | 72.5 | -0.5 | 50% | 100% |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 31.2 | 31.5 | 62.7 | -0.3 | 43% | 29% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 41.9 | 31.8 | 73.8 | +10.1 | 69% | 62% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 143 | 70.4% | 1.77 | 1.85 | 1.77 | 1.68 | - | - | +19.0pp | Lost |
| Over 142 | 72.5% | 1.68 | 1.76 | 1.68 | 1.60 | - | - | +18.6pp | Lost |
| Over 141 | 74.6% | 1.62 | 1.69 | 1.64 | 1.54 | - | - | +18.5pp | Lost |
| Over 142.5 | 71.0% | 1.71 | 1.81 | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.67 | 1.66 | +18.4pp | Lost |
| Over 141.5 | 73.1% | 1.65 | 1.73 | 1.70 | 1.64 | 1.60 | 1.57 | +18.2pp | Lost |
| Purdue over 77.5 | 73.7% | 1.56 | 1.69 | 1.54 | 1.53 | 1.50 | - | +18.0pp | Lost |
| Purdue over 78.5 | 70.3% | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.60 | - | - | - | +17.6pp | Lost |
| Over 140.5 | 75.1% | 1.52 | 1.53 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +13.7pp | Lost |
| Over 139.5 | 77.1% | 1.46 | 1.47 | 1.44 | - | - | - | +13.4pp | Lost |
| Over 140 | 76.6% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +13.2pp | Lost |
| Over 138.5 | 78.9% | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +13.0pp | Lost |
| Purdue over 76.5 | 76.9% | 1.42 | 1.42 | - | - | - | - | +12.9pp | Lost |
| Over 139 | 78.5% | 1.41 | 1.41 | - | - | - | - | +12.8pp | Lost |
| Over 138 | 80.3% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +12.8pp | Lost |
| Purdue over 75.5 | 79.8% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +12.6pp | Won |
| Over 137.5 | 80.6% | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +12.3pp | Lost |
| Purdue over 74.5 | 82.5% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +12.2pp | Won |
| Illinois State over 58.5 | 82.2% | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +12.0pp | Won |
| Illinois State over 60.5 | 76.5% | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +11.8pp | Lost |
| Over 137 | 82.0% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +11.5pp | Lost |
| Illinois State over 61.5 | 73.3% | 1.48 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | +10.8pp | Lost |
| Purdue over 73.5 | 85.0% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +10.5pp | Won |
| Over 136.5 | 82.3% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +10.4pp | Lost |
| Illinois State over 59.5 | 79.4% | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +9.6pp | Lost |
| Over 134.5 | 85.3% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +9.2pp | Won |
| Illinois State over 57.5 | 84.7% | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.20 | - | - | - | +8.9pp | Won |
| Purdue (regulation) | 90.3% | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.05 | - | - | +7.1pp | Won |
| Illinois State over 55.5 | 88.9% | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.11 | - | - | - | +6.3pp | Won |
| Illinois State over 54.5 | 90.7% | 1.10 | 1.12 | 1.09 | - | - | - | +6.1pp | Won |
| Over 129.5 | 91.4% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +5.8pp | Won |
| Illinois State over 51.5 | 94.7% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +5.1pp | Won |
| Over 124.5 | 95.3% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +5.1pp | Won |
| Illinois State over 53.5 | 92.2% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +4.7pp | Won |
| Purdue +4.5 | 95.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +3.1pp | Won |
| Purdue -8.5 | 74.6% | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.27 | - | - | - | +2.2pp | Won |
| Purdue -7.5 | 77.4% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +2.1pp | Won |
| Purdue -8 | 76.8% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +2.0pp | Won |
| Purdue -9.5 | 71.6% | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +2.0pp | Won |
| Purdue -9 | 73.8% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +1.9pp | Won |
| Purdue -10 | 70.7% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +1.8pp | Won |
| Illinois State +23.5 | 75.0% | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1.23 | - | - | - | +1.5pp | Won |
| Purdue win | 91.6% | 1.05 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.04 | +1.0pp | Won |
| Purdue -4.5 | 84.8% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +1.0pp | Won |
| Illinois State +22.5 | 72.2% | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Won |
| Purdue under 99.5 | 94.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Won |
| Purdue under 97.5 | 91.7% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +0.2pp | Won |
| Illinois State +23 | 74.3% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | -0.4pp | Won |
| Illinois State +22 | 71.3% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | -0.6pp | Won |
| Purdue under 95.5 | 88.3% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -2.2pp | Won |
| Illinois State under 79.5 | 87.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -4.0pp | Won |
| Purdue under 93.5 | 83.8% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -4.9pp | Won |
| Under 169.5 | 86.6% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -5.7pp | Won |
| Illinois State under 77.5 | 83.2% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -6.2pp | Won |
| Purdue under 91.5 | 78.4% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -7.7pp | Won |
| Purdue under 90.5 | 75.3% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -8.5pp | Won |
| Illinois State under 73.5 | 71.7% | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.13 | - | - | - | -9.1pp | Won |
| Illinois State under 75.5 | 77.9% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | -9.2pp | Won |
| Purdue under 89.5 | 72.0% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.12 | - | - | - | -10.2pp | Won |
| Under 164.5 | 78.9% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -10.5pp | Won |
| Illinois State under 74.5 | 74.9% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -10.6pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/26 | H | Valparaiso | 80-83 OT |
| 03/11/26 | H | Gonzaga | 78-72 |
| 29/03/26 | A | Arizona | 64-79 |
| 26/03/26 | H | Texas | 79-77 |
| 22/03/26 | H | Miami (FL) | 79-69 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Queens Royals | 104-71 |
| 15/03/26 | A | Michigan | 80-72 |
| 14/03/26 | A | UCLA | 73-66 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Nebraska | 74-58 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Northwestern | 81-68 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/26 | H | Central State (OH) | 100-55 |
| 03/11/26 | A | St. Marys (CA) | 85-90 OT |
| 07/03/26 | H | Northern Iowa | 52-74 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Belmont | 81-74 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Northern Iowa | 71-69 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Bradley | 60-74 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Murray State | 78-61 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Illinois (Chi.) | 56-83 |
| 13/02/26 | H | Valparaiso | 86-64 |
| 10/02/26 | A | Evansville | 80-88 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WL | 50% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 | - |
| Win % | 50% | 50% | - |
| Points / game | 79.0 | 79.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 77.5 | 77.5 | - |
| Point differential | +1.5 | +1.5 | - |
| Avg total | 156.5 | 156.5 | - |
| Over 143.5 | 100% | 100% | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 50% | 50% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LW | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 92.5 | 100.0 | 85.0 |
| Allowed / game | 72.5 | 55.0 | 90.0 |
| Point differential | +20.0 | +45.0 | -5.0 |
| Avg total | 165.0 | 155.0 | 175.0 |
| Over 143.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 116.0 | 57.5 | +58.5 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 93.5 | 60.0 | +33.5 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 50.5 | +33.0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 99.0 | 69.0 | +30.0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 81.0 | 54.0 | +27.0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 86.5 | 61.0 | +25.5 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 92.5 | 70.0 | +22.5 | |
| 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 68.7 | +20.0 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 74.5 | +19.5 | |
| 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 60.0 | +18.7 | |
| 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 74.7 | 57.7 | +17.0 | |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 76.0 | +14.0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 66.0 | +8.0 | |
| 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.0 | 77.3 | +12.7 | |
| 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 77.7 | +7.7 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 85.0 | 76.5 | +8.5 | |
| 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 80.5 | 76.5 | +4.0 | |
| 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 79.0 | 77.5 | +1.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 88.0 | 58.0 | +30.0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 58.3 | +27.3 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 93.5 | 67.5 | +26.0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 73.5 | 49.5 | +24.0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 81.5 | 69.0 | +12.5 | |
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 73.0 | +6.0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 92.5 | 72.5 | +20.0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 87.5 | 70.0 | +17.5 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 68.5 | 52.0 | +16.5 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 94.5 | 84.0 | +10.5 | |
| 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 69.5 | 72.0 | -2.5 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 40 | 76 | |
| 28 | 31 | 59 |
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