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Illinois State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 13 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 86-64
34-34 52-30
Position#96
Record16-9
FormLWLWL
Points / game76.8
Allowed / game67.6
vs
Position#170
Record13-12
FormLWLWW
Points / game71.4
Allowed / game70.2
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Illinois State v Valparaiso
16 Jan 2027
ILLI v VALP
upcoming
12 Feb 2026
ILLI86
VALP64
01 Feb 2025
ILLI86
VALP78
14 Jan 2024
ILLI50
VALP59
21 Jan 2023
ILLI51
VALP71
09 Feb 2022
ILLI78
VALP75
24 Jan 2021
ILLI66
VALP70
23 Jan 2021
ILLI60
VALP69
03 Jan 2021
ILLI v VALP
upcoming
02 Jan 2021
ILLI v VALP
upcoming
15 Feb 2020
ILLI62
VALP65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#170
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A08/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
59-63 OT
59
63
-4
H10/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
89-94
89
94
-5
A15/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
88-62
88
62
+26
H17/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
59-54
59
54
+5
H22/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
69-80
69
80
-11
A24/01
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
70-65
70
65
+5
A29/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H04/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
86-76
86
76
+10
H07/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
80-88
80
88
-8
A10/02
NCAA
1H
2H
23-35
48-42
25-28
26-23
42-51
47-43
44-29
44-33
24-16
35-38
36-44
33-36
35-29
35-36
24-22
26-32
47-32
39-44
32-45
48-43
143.4Avg total
72.1Scored
71.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)76.867.6144.4+9.264%
Season at home (14)78.460.1138.5+18.486%
Season away (11)74.777.3152.0-2.536%
Last 10 (10)72.171.3143.4+0.840%
Last 5 (5)71.072.6143.6-1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)78.083.0161.0-5.00%
vs Similar (10)68.165.2133.3+2.960%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)78.469.3147.7+9.267%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#96
W
77-71
77
71
+6
H08/01
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
79-92
79
92
-13
A10/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
74-78
74
78
-4
A14/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
54-44
54
44
+10
H17/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
69-63
69
63
+6
H22/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
77-78
77
78
-1
H29/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
76-72 OT
76
72
+4
A31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
65-72
65
72
-7
A04/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
70-63 OT
70
63
+7
H07/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
81-76
81
76
+5
A10/02
NCAA
1H
2H
35-23
42-48
36-45
43-47
39-41
35-37
22-18
32-26
39-20
30-43
38-42
39-36
27-37
39-29
33-40
32-32
28-26
30-32
38-40
43-36
143.1Avg total
72.2Scored
70.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)71.470.2141.6+1.252%
Season at home (14)71.663.5135.1+8.171%
Season away (11)71.378.7150.0-7.527%
Last 10 (10)72.270.9143.1+1.360%
Last 5 (5)73.872.2146.0+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)65.470.6136.0-5.336%
vs Similar (13)71.973.0144.9-1.146%
vs Weaker (6)77.760.8138.5+16.883%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +0.1+0.11st half: +0.3+0.32nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: -0.1-0.1
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +0.1+0.11st half: +0.3+0.32nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: -0.1-0.1
Illinois StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#170
L
23-35
23
35
-12
A08/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
25-28
25
28
-3
H10/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
42-51
42
51
-9
A15/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
44-29
44
29
+15
H17/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
24-16
24
16
+8
H22/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A24/01
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A29/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
24-22
24
22
+2
H04/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H07/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A10/02
NCAA
66.3Avg total
33.2Scored
33.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.031.767.7+4.360%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.426.465.9+13.088%-
Last 30 away (14)32.137.669.7-5.629%-
Last 10 (10)33.233.166.3+0.150%-
Last 5 (5)34.834.469.2+0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)33.040.073.0-7.00%-
vs Similar (10)30.331.261.5-0.950%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)38.732.170.7+6.667%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#96
W
35-23
35
23
+12
H08/01
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A10/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A14/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
22-18
22
18
+4
H17/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
39-20
39
20
+19
H22/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H29/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
27-37
27
37
-10
A31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A04/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
28-26
28
26
+2
H07/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A10/02
NCAA
66.7Avg total
33.5Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.031.564.4+1.553%-
Last 30 at home (15)33.327.560.8+5.773%-
Last 30 away (15)32.735.468.1-2.733%-
Last 10 (10)33.533.266.7+0.340%-
Last 5 (5)32.837.069.8-4.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)32.832.565.4+0.355%-
vs Similar (13)32.232.364.5-0.146%-
vs Weaker (6)34.827.762.5+7.267%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Illinois State wins
8
Valparaiso wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/02/26AEvansville80-88
07/02/26HDrake86-76
04/02/26HSouthern Illinois50-54
29/01/26AMurray State70-65
24/01/26ABelmont69-80
22/01/26HNorthern Iowa59-54
17/01/26HBradley88-62
15/01/26AIndiana State89-94
10/01/26HIllinois (Chi.)59-63 OT
08/01/26AValparaiso71-77
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/02/26ADrake81-76
07/02/26HEvansville70-63 OT
04/02/26ABradley65-72
31/01/26AIndiana State76-72 OT
29/01/26HBelmont77-78
22/01/26HSouthern Illinois69-63
17/01/26HNorthern Iowa54-44
14/01/26ABelmont74-78
10/01/26AMurray State79-92
08/01/26HIllinois State77-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL64%
HomeLWWLW86%
AwayLLLWL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251411
Win %64%86%36%
Points / game76.878.474.7
Allowed / game67.660.177.3
Point differential+9.2+18.4-2.5
Avg total144.4138.5152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%71%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)33% (3)40% (5)
Overtime %4%7%0%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW52%
HomeWWWLW71%
AwayLLWLW27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251411
Win %52%71%27%
Points / game71.471.671.3
Allowed / game70.263.578.7
Point differential+1.2+8.1-7.5
Avg total141.6135.1150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%29%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)50% (4)40% (5)
Overtime %12%7%18%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont2722581%82.273.1+9.0
2 Murray State2618869%85.379.5+5.8
3 Bradley2617965%77.472.9+4.5
4 Illinois State2516964%76.867.6+9.2
5 Northern Iowa2516964%67.860.0+7.8
6 Illinois (Chi.)25131252%74.670.3+4.3
7 Valparaiso25131252%71.470.2+1.2
8 Drake26121446%77.675.0+2.6
9 Southern Illinois25111444%74.271.6+2.6
10 Indiana State25101540%75.274.9+0.3
11 Evansville2561924%67.774.5-6.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Illinois State345286
Valparaiso343064
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