PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Purdue faces Lipscomb on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Purdue as the clear favourite thanks to a 98% win probability that reflects their 2-1 record and an average of 78.0 points scored versus 71.3 allowed, placing them 176th in the league. Purdue has played three games this season, winning two and losing one, and their home performance mirrors the overall record, with 78.0 points per game and 71.3 allowed; their last five games show three wins and two losses, including a 76-59 victory over Illinois State, a 80-83 defeat to Valparaiso, and a 78-72 win over Gonzaga. Lipscomb, meanwhile, has a 2-2 record from four games, scoring 74.8 points and conceding 78.5, and sits 228th; on the road they have gone 0-2, averaging 66.5 points and 81.0 allowed. Their last five games include two wins and three losses, with recent wins over Belmont and Siu Edwardsville and a 54-76 loss to Iowa. The model projects a 91-66 scoreline, a total of 156.5 points, and a 1% chance of overtime, with Purdue covering the home line by a comfortable margin. The next game will test whether Lipscomb can upset the projected outcome.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 78.5 | 69.0 | 147.5 | +9.5 | 75% |
| Season at home (4) | 78.5 | 69.0 | 147.5 | +9.5 | 75% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 79.3 | 71.0 | 150.3 | +8.3 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.6 | 71.0 | 146.6 | +4.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 74.7 | 80.7 | 155.3 | -6.0 | 33% |
| vs Similar (9) | 77.8 | 69.8 | 147.6 | +8.0 | 78% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (18) | 80.8 | 72.2 | 152.9 | +8.6 | 72% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 74.8 | 76.4 | 151.2 | -1.6 | 60% |
| Season at home (2) | 83.0 | 76.0 | 159.0 | +7.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 69.3 | 76.7 | 146.0 | -7.3 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.2 | 74.3 | 147.5 | -1.1 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.8 | 76.4 | 151.2 | -1.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 74.7 | 80.2 | 154.8 | -5.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (9) | 76.6 | 80.8 | 157.3 | -4.2 | 44% |
| vs Weaker (15) | 82.9 | 71.6 | 154.5 | +11.3 | 80% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.3 | 33.2 | 71.4 | +5.1 | 70% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 39.5 | 34.2 | 73.8 | +5.3 | 76% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 36.6 | 31.8 | 68.4 | +4.8 | 62% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.3 | 31.3 | 68.6 | +6.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.8 | 28.0 | 63.8 | +7.8 | 100% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 36.0 | 39.0 | 75.0 | -3.0 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 37.8 | 31.9 | 69.7 | +5.9 | 78% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (18) | 38.9 | 32.8 | 71.7 | +6.1 | 72% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.5 | 36.0 | 72.5 | +0.5 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.5 | 32.1 | 70.6 | +6.5 | 73% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 34.5 | 39.9 | 74.5 | -5.4 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.3 | 35.8 | 71.1 | -0.5 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.4 | 36.6 | 74.0 | +0.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 37.0 | 38.8 | 75.8 | -1.8 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 34.8 | 38.0 | 72.8 | -3.2 | 44% | - |
| vs Weaker (15) | 37.4 | 33.7 | 71.1 | +3.7 | 67% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Ohio | 80-62 |
| 10/11/26 | H | Illinois State | 76-59 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Valparaiso | 80-83 OT |
| 03/11/26 | H | Gonzaga | 78-72 |
| 29/03/26 | A | Arizona | 64-79 |
| 26/03/26 | H | Texas | 79-77 |
| 22/03/26 | H | Miami (FL) | 79-69 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Queens Royals | 104-71 |
| 15/03/26 | A | Michigan | 80-72 |
| 14/03/26 | A | UCLA | 73-66 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/26 | A | Western Carolina | 75-68 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Belmont | 88-75 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Siu Edwardsville | 78-77 |
| 04/11/26 | A | Iowa | 54-76 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Southeast Missouri State | 79-86 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Florida Gulf Coast | 53-77 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Eastern Kentucky | 80-77 |
| 26/02/26 | A | West Georgia | 77-84 |
| 21/02/26 | H | North Alabama | 73-51 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Bellarmine | 75-72 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWW | 75% |
| Home | WLWW | 75% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 75% | 75% | - |
| Points / game | 78.5 | 78.5 | - |
| Allowed / game | 69.0 | 69.0 | - |
| Point differential | +9.5 | +9.5 | - |
| Avg total | 147.5 | 147.5 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 50% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 25% | 25% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWWW | 60% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LLW | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 60% | 100% | 33% |
| Points / game | 74.8 | 83.0 | 69.3 |
| Allowed / game | 76.4 | 76.0 | 76.7 |
| Point differential | -1.6 | +7.0 | -7.3 |
| Avg total | 151.2 | 159.0 | 146.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UCLA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 101.3 | 58.3 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  Nebraska | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 60.7 | +28.3 |
| 3 |  Rutgers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 56.3 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  Michigan State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.2 | +26.8 |
| 5 |  Oregon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 68.7 | +26.3 |
| 6 |  Indiana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.0 | +21.0 |
| 7 |  Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 58.0 | +21.0 |
| 8 |  Minnesota | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 78.8 | 58.5 | +20.2 |
| 9 |  USC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 71.3 | +17.0 |
| 10 |  Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 70.0 | +13.5 |
| 11 |  Illinois | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 104.5 | 71.2 | +33.2 |
| 12 | Purdue | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.0 | +9.5 |
| 13 |  Northwestern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 70.8 | 61.8 | +9.0 |
| 14 |  Iowa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 64.7 | +20.3 |
| 15 |  Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 74.3 | +7.3 |
| 16 |  Penn State | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 77.6 | 75.6 | +2.0 |
| 17 |  Ohio State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.0 | 79.2 | +1.8 |
| 18 |  Maryland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.3 | 80.0 | +4.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eastern Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 97.0 | 66.5 | +30.5 |
| 2 | Lipscomb | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 74.8 | 76.4 | -1.6 |
| 3 |  Queens Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 89.2 | 100.2 | -11.0 |
| 4 |  Central Arkansas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 84.5 | 70.0 | +14.5 |
| 5 |  Austin Peay | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.0 | 68.2 | +11.8 |
| 6 |  North Alabama | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.8 | 79.0 | -9.2 |
| 7 |  Florida Gulf Coast | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.0 | 83.0 | +1.0 |
| 8 |  North Florida | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.8 | 85.8 | -21.0 |
| 9 |  Bellarmine | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 70.4 | 83.8 | -13.4 |
| 10 |  West Georgia | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 62.2 | 79.0 | -16.8 |
| 11 |  Stetson | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.5 | 83.0 | -22.5 |
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