PythiaBasketballBETA
NKLRound 12· Active Vilnius Arena
On 7 November 2026 the NKL will see Rytas 2 host Kretinga in a matchup that feels almost evenly matched, with only a slim edge for the home side. Rytas 2 have gone 0-10 this season, averaging 75.1 points and conceding 87.3, while Kretinga have managed 2-8, scoring 79.7 and allowing 88.1, a slightly better offensive output but still trailing in points allowed. In Rytas 2's six home games they have yet to win, posting 79.0 points and 92.0 allowed, and their last five games have yielded five straight defeats, the most recent being a 91-101 loss to Alytaus Patriotai at home. Kretinga, in their five road outings, have won two, averaging 75.8 points and 83.2 allowed, and their last five games contain two victories, the latest being a 75-72 win over Omega-Tauras away. Historically Kretinga have a 7-3 edge in the ten meetings, with the last encounter on 22 March 2026 ending 94-80 in Kretinga's favour. Pythia assigns a 51% chance to Rytas 2 and 49% to Kretinga, projecting a 84-83 score for a total of 166.8 points, and a 5% probability that the game will go into overtime. The home team's line is 0, and the model predicts a 51% chance that Rytas 2 will cover. The final game-day result will hinge on whether Rytas 2 can break their winless streak at home.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (11) | 76.5 | 88.0 | 164.5 | -11.5 | 0% |
| Season at home (6) | 79.0 | 92.0 | 171.0 | -13.0 | 0% |
| Season away (5) | 73.4 | 83.2 | 156.6 | -9.8 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.4 | 87.7 | 164.1 | -11.3 | 0% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.8 | 85.4 | 162.2 | -8.6 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 76.6 | 90.5 | 167.1 | -13.9 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (16) | 78.5 | 81.3 | 159.8 | -2.8 | 38% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 89.0 | 66.8 | 155.8 | +22.2 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (11) | 80.3 | 89.2 | 169.5 | -8.9 | 18% |
| Season at home (6) | 84.0 | 94.2 | 178.2 | -10.2 | 0% |
| Season away (5) | 75.8 | 83.2 | 159.0 | -7.4 | 40% |
| Last 10 (10) | 80.7 | 89.0 | 169.7 | -8.3 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.0 | 89.8 | 168.8 | -10.8 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (18) | 78.7 | 90.4 | 169.1 | -11.7 | 17% |
| vs Similar ◀ (9) | 84.4 | 80.7 | 165.1 | +3.8 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 97.3 | 90.7 | 188.0 | +6.7 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.0 | 41.2 | 80.2 | -2.3 | 37% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 40.7 | 42.3 | 83.0 | -1.5 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 37.2 | 40.2 | 77.4 | -3.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.9 | 42.9 | 80.8 | -5.0 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.6 | 40.6 | 80.2 | -1.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 37.9 | 45.9 | 83.8 | -8.0 | 10% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (16) | 38.2 | 39.9 | 78.1 | -1.6 | 44% | - |
| vs Weaker (4) | 44.5 | 35.0 | 79.5 | +9.5 | 75% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.7 | 42.4 | 82.1 | -2.7 | 37% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 41.5 | 42.6 | 84.1 | -1.1 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 37.9 | 42.1 | 80.0 | -4.3 | 20% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.2 | 44.4 | 84.6 | -4.2 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.8 | 45.2 | 83.0 | -7.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (18) | 37.8 | 44.5 | 82.3 | -6.7 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (9) | 39.9 | 38.1 | 78.0 | +1.8 | 56% | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 50.7 | 42.3 | 93.0 | +8.3 | 100% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.6 | 21.2 | 54.5% | 42.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.2 | 5.8 | 31.3% | 17.4 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.8 | 15.1 | 67.1% | 15.1 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 35.6 | 19.3 | 54.5% | 38.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.3 | 8.5 | 31.3% | 25.5 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 23.0 | 14.8 | 67.1% | 14.8 |
Rytas 2| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 | Kretinga v Rytas 2 | 94-80 |
| 19/03/26 | Rytas 2 v Kretinga | 87-93 |
| 17/01/26 | Rytas 2 v Kretinga | 102-87 |
| 22/11/25 | Kretinga v Rytas 2 | 85-74 |
| 27/02/25 | Rytas 2 v Kretinga | 74-92 |
| 05/12/24 | Rytas 2 v Kretinga | 85-81 |
| 14/11/24 | Kretinga v Rytas 2 | 80-101 |
| 29/02/24 | Kretinga v Rytas 2 | 89-74 |
| 27/01/24 | Rytas 2 v Kretinga | 66-79 |
| 30/11/23 | Kretinga v Rytas 2 | 81-77 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/26 | A | Zalgiris Kaunas 2 | 90-95 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Alytaus Patriotai | 91-101 |
| 29/10/26 | A | Vilkaviskis | 72-74 |
| 24/10/26 | H | Neptunas 2 | 62-74 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Kedainiai BC | 69-83 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Plunges Olimpas | 64-89 |
| 15/10/26 | H | Jurbarkas | 72-84 |
| 10/10/26 | H | BC Olimpas Palanga | 81-103 |
| 08/10/26 | H | Omega-Tauras | 91-99 |
| 03/10/26 | A | Mazeikiai | 72-75 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/26 | H | BC Olimpas Palanga | 86-100 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Omega-Tauras | 75-72 |
| 29/10/26 | H | Jurbarkas | 79-86 |
| 24/10/26 | H | Zalgiris Kaunas 2 | 85-101 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Alytaus Patriotai | 70-90 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Kauno Atletas | 84-72 |
| 15/10/26 | H | Suduva-Mantinga | 83-88 |
| 10/10/26 | H | Ukmerges Stekas | 95-99 |
| 08/10/26 | A | Plunges Olimpas | 85-98 |
| 03/10/26 | A | Vilkaviskis | 65-84 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 0% |
| Home | LLLLL | 0% |
| Away | LLLLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 76.5 | 79.0 | 73.4 |
| Allowed / game | 88.0 | 92.0 | 83.2 |
| Point differential | -11.5 | -13.0 | -9.8 |
| Avg total | 164.5 | 171.0 | 156.6 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (3) | - | 0% (3) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLWL | 18% |
| Home | LLLLL | 0% |
| Away | LLWLW | 40% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| Win % | 18% | 0% | 40% |
| Points / game | 80.3 | 84.0 | 75.8 |
| Allowed / game | 89.2 | 94.2 | 83.2 |
| Point differential | -8.9 | -10.2 | -7.4 |
| Avg total | 169.5 | 178.2 | 159.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 9% | 0% | 20% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 33% (3) | 0% (2) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Telsiai | 12 | 11 | 1 | 92% | 90.5 | 74.2 | +16.3 |
| 2 | Jurbarkas | 11 | 10 | 1 | 91% | 90.2 | 77.6 | +12.5 |
| 3 |  BC Olimpas Palanga | 12 | 10 | 2 | 83% | 96.2 | 84.7 | +11.6 |
| 4 |  Suduva-Mantinga | 11 | 8 | 3 | 73% | 91.7 | 77.6 | +14.1 |
| 5 |  Silute | 11 | 8 | 3 | 73% | 83.6 | 80.4 | +3.3 |
| 6 |  Vytis VDU | 10 | 7 | 3 | 70% | 96.4 | 89.6 | +6.8 |
| 7 |  Neptunas 2 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 67% | 78.2 | 75.0 | +3.2 |
| 8 | Plunges Olimpas | 12 | 7 | 5 | 58% | 82.6 | 78.8 | +3.8 |
| 9 | Alytaus Patriotai | 12 | 7 | 5 | 58% | 85.1 | 84.7 | +0.4 |
| 10 | Omega-Tauras | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50% | 90.0 | 87.2 | +2.8 |
| 11 |  Zalgiris Kaunas 2 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 94.2 | 96.8 | -2.7 |
| 12 |  Vilkaviskis | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 80.9 | 85.2 | -4.3 |
| 13 | Kedainiai BC | 12 | 4 | 8 | 33% | 77.0 | 84.7 | -7.7 |
| 14 | Ukmerges Stekas | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% | 77.8 | 89.5 | -11.8 |
| 15 | Kretinga | 11 | 2 | 9 | 18% | 80.3 | 89.2 | -8.9 |
| 16 |  Mazeikiai | 12 | 2 | 10 | 17% | 76.8 | 88.7 | -11.9 |
| 17 |  Kauno Atletas | 11 | 1 | 10 | 9% | 77.3 | 92.6 | -15.4 |
| 18 | Rytas 2 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0% | 76.5 | 88.0 | -11.5 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rytas 2 | 22 | 25 | 19 | 25 | 91 |
| Kretinga | 21 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 79 |
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