Saint Josephs Hawks host Lafayette on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Hawks as the clear favourite thanks to a 96% win probability and a projected 84-63 victory that reflects their dominant 1-0 season record and 82.0 points per game against 73.0 allowed, the best in the league at position 156. Lafayette, meanwhile, sits 1-1 with 82.0 points scored and 81.5 allowed, a 235th league spot, and has struggled on the road, going 0-1 in their only away game with 60.0 points for and 96.0 against. The Hawks' recent form shows a 4-1 record in the last five games, including a 82-73 win over Longwood at home, while Lafayette's last five include a 104-67 home victory over Kings (PA) Monarchs but two recent losses to Butler and Holy Cross. Historically the Hawks have won three of four meetings, most recently 85-76 on 3 November 2025. Pythia projects a 61% chance the Hawks will cover the -17.5 line and a 52% chance the total will go over 146.5, with a 1% overtime probability. The game ends with a concrete fact: Saint Josephs Hawks beat Lafayette 84-63.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Saint Josephs Hawks winWon
96.1%fair 1.04
Best odds1.06
Implied91.5%
Edge+4.6pp
Lafayette winLost
3.9%fair 25.41
Best odds13.00
Implied8.5%
Edge-4.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Saint Josephs Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143Actual: Under 143
Over 143
60.6%
@ 1.54+0.2pp
Under 143
39.4%
@ 2.35-0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.54
Under
Bet365
2.35
Over/Under 148 · main lineActual: Under 148
Over 148
48.0%
@ 2.00-2.2pp
Under 148
52.0%
@ 1.91+2.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.74
Over/Under 153Actual: Under 153
Over 153
35.7%
@ 2.75+1.9pp
Under 153
64.3%
@ 1.40-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Under
Bet365
1.40
📊 3. Team Totals
Saint Josephs Hawks total 78Actual: Saint Josephs Hawks under 78
Over 78
73.8%
Under 78
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saint Josephs Hawks total 82 · main lineActual: Saint Josephs Hawks under 82
Over 82
58.5%
@ 1.85+8.2pp
Under 82
41.5%
@ 1.87-8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Saint Josephs Hawks total 86Actual: Saint Josephs Hawks under 86
Over 86
41.8%
Under 86
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lafayette total 61Actual: Lafayette under 61
Over 61
59.0%
Under 61
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lafayette total 65 · main lineActual: Lafayette under 65
Over 65
42.4%
@ 1.87-7.3pp
Under 65
57.6%
@ 1.85+7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Lafayette total 69Actual: Lafayette under 69
Over 69
27.2%
Under 69
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Saint Josephs Hawks -19Actual: Lafayette +19
SAIN -19
56.4%
@ 2.36+16.0pp
LAFA +19
43.6%
@ 1.78-16.0pp
Best 5 market prices
SAIN
Pinnacle
2.36
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Be
1.94
LAFA
Marathon Be
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.60
Spread Saint Josephs Hawks -16 · main lineActual: Lafayette +16
SAIN -16
66.9%
@ 1.88+16.0pp
LAFA +16
33.1%
@ 2.15-16.0pp
Best 5 market prices
SAIN
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.82
Marathon Be
1.81
Bet365
1.62
LAFA
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.92
Marathon Be
1.90
Spread Saint Josephs Hawks -13Actual: Lafayette +13
SAIN -13
76.1%
@ 1.38+9.1pp
LAFA +13
23.9%
@ 2.80-9.1pp
Best 5 market prices
SAIN
Bet365
1.38
LAFA
Bet365
2.80
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Saint Josephs HawksLafayette
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Saint Josephs Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Lafayette win
SAIN win
no forecast
@ 1.24
LAFA win
no forecast
@ 4.10
2nd half Spread Saint Josephs Hawks -6.5 · main lineActual: Lafayette +6.5
SAIN -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
LAFA +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
SAIN
no forecast
@ 1.27
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
LAFA
no forecast
@ 4.05
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Saint Josephs Hawks -15
70.2%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -14.5
71.1%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
-
-
+14.1pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -14
73.2%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks (regulation)
95.4%
1.06
Betano
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.05
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -13.5
74.0%
1.44
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -12.5
76.8%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -13
76.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -11.5
79.3%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -10.5
81.7%
1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -12
78.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -11
81.3%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks over 78.5
71.3%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -10
83.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Push
Saint Josephs Hawks over 77.5
74.6%
1.36
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks over 73.5
85.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks -9.5
83.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 75.5
80.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks win
96.1%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.05
Pinnacle
1.05
Bet365
1.04
WilliamHill
1.04
+4.6pp
Won
Lafayette under 68.5
70.3%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Lafayette under 69.5
73.7%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 99.5
94.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 101.5
96.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Lafayette under 77.5
92.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Over 121.5
94.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 97.5
91.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Lafayette under 73.5
84.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Lafayette under 75.5
88.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Lafayette under 71.5
79.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Over 126.5
90.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Lost
Under 171.5
93.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Lafayette over 47.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Lafayette over 49.5
91.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 95.5
87.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Lafayette over 48.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 138.5
70.6%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Lost
Under 166.5
88.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Lafayette over 50.5
89.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Over 136.5
74.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Lost
Lafayette over 51.5
88.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
83.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks under 93.5
83.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 91.5
77.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Lafayette over 52.5
85.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Lafayette over 53.5
83.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Under 161.5
81.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 89.5
71.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
Lafayette over 55.5
78.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
Under 156.5
71.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Lafayette over 57.5
71.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Lost
Lafayette over 54.5
80.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Lafayette over 56.5
74.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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