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Samara vs CSKA Moscow Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 13:00
Projected 65-103
Projected total 168.0
Final 68-97
23-29 17-22 8-22 20-24
Position#11
Record0-9
FormLLLLL
Points / game67.9
Allowed / game96.6
Samara
Russia
Vs
100%
■ SAM 0%■ CMO 100%
Pythia win probability
CSKA Moscow 🏆
Russia
Position#1
Record9-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game92.1
Allowed / game70.7
RussiaVTB United League· Palace of Sport
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Samara v CSKA Moscow
14 Nov 2026
SAM68
CMO97
04 Apr 2026
SAM72
CMO109
30 Sep 2025
SAM63
CMO82
05 Feb 2025
SAM44
CMO102
18 Dec 2024
SAM63
CMO93
07 Jan 2024
SAM82
CMO92
03 Oct 2022
SAM72
CMO85
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Samara will host CSKA Moscow on 14 November 2026 in the VTB United League, and the Pythia model designates CSKA Moscow as the clear favourite, assigning a 99% chance of victory largely because the club is undefeated at 9-0, scores 92.1 points per game and allows only 70.7, while Samara is 0-9, averages 67.9 points and concedes 96.6. Samara's season record of 0-5 at home, with an average of 69.6 points and 100.0 points allowed, contrasts sharply with CSKA's 3-0 road record, 90.0 points scored and 70.7 allowed, and their perfect 5-0 recent run. In head-to-head history, CSKA has won all ten meetings, most recently 109-72 on 4 April 2026. Pythia projects a 67-102 score, a total of 169.3, and a 54% chance that CSKA will cover the home line of 36.5; the over on the 166.5 total has a 57% probability. The model also indicates a 0% chance of overtime. CSKA's dominance in every statistical category suggests they will continue their winning streak in this encounter.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Samara winLost
0.4%fair 282.36
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
CSKA Moscow winWon
99.6%fair 1.00
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SamaraRussiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
MBA Moscow
#7
L
61-79
61
79
-18
A22/04
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A26/09
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
L
84-98
84
98
-14
H04/10
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
62-117
62
117
-55
H07/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
L
70-91
70
91
-21
A14/10
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
L
75-94
75
94
-19
H17/10
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
L
65-99
65
99
-34
H21/10
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
L
62-92
62
92
-30
H25/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
L
68-109
68
109
-41
A03/11
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
L
56-92
56
92
-36
A11/11
VTB United League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-20
14-21
16-21
9-17
19-7
17-24
9-27
24-19
23-34
27-20
19-26
15-18
15-25
14-25
21-34
12-33
20-25
16-14
14-30
20-22
23-17
17-29
16-20
19-28
19-31
13-17
19-27
14-24
17-21
14-28
15-24
16-19
13-23
19-29
21-25
15-32
12-27
13-23
20-19
11-23
162.0Avg total
67.2Scored
94.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)67.996.6164.4-28.70%
Season at home (5)69.6100.0169.6-30.40%
Season away (4)65.892.2158.0-26.50%
Last 10 (10)67.294.8162.0-27.60%
Last 5 (5)65.297.2162.4-32.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)69.394.7164.0-25.43%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (CSKA Moscow) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CSKA MoscowRussiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unics Kazan
#2
W
102-76
102
76
+26
A10/06
VTB United League
MBA Moscow
#7
W
82-65
82
65
+17
A27/09
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
W
90-85
90
85
+5
H07/10
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
W
87-84
87
84
+3
H11/10
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
W
103-88
103
88
+15
A14/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
W
85-59
85
59
+26
A17/10
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
117-55
117
55
+62
H23/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
W
79-57
79
57
+22
H27/10
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
W
80-68
80
68
+12
H08/11
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
W
106-75
106
75
+31
H11/11
VTB United League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-27
30-22
24-12
28-15
25-14
30-11
13-22
14-18
14-25
34-24
21-19
21-17
27-23
27-17
16-19
17-25
29-24
26-17
26-22
22-25
11-15
29-18
19-15
26-11
32-14
24-16
25-18
36-7
14-14
11-12
25-15
29-16
25-21
20-15
18-18
17-14
32-21
26-23
29-24
19-7
164.3Avg total
93.1Scored
71.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)92.170.7162.8+21.4100%
Season at home (6)93.270.7163.8+22.5100%
Season away (3)90.070.7160.7+19.3100%
Last 10 (10)93.171.2164.3+21.9100%
Last 5 (5)93.462.8156.2+30.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)94.575.3169.8+19.197%
This opponent (Samara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1251%1302%1353%1405%1457%15010%15512%16012%16512%17011%1759%1806%1854%1903%1951%2001%205
0%1252%1355%14510%15512%16511%1756%1853%1951%205
Pythia expects about 168 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 166.
Over/Under 161Actual: Over 161
Over 161
67.4%
@ 1.47
Under 161
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.47
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166 · main lineActual: Under 166
Over 166
55.1%
@ 1.86+4.8pp
Under 166
44.9%
@ 1.92-4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
Pinnacle
1.86
1xBet
1.86
SBO
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.80
Over/Under 171Actual: Under 171
Over 171
42.3%
Under 171
57.7%
@ 1.52
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
Marathon Be
1.52

📊 3. Team Totals

Samara total 62.5Actual: Samara over 62.5
Over 62.5
60.2%
@ 1.54-0.9pp
Under 62.5
39.8%
@ 2.42+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.54
Under
1xBet
2.42
Samara total 65 · main lineActual: Samara over 65
Over 65
51.3%
@ 1.85+0.8pp
Under 65
48.7%
@ 1.89-0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Samara total 69.5Actual: Samara under 69.5
Over 69.5
33.4%
Under 69.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Moscow total 95.5Actual: CSKA Moscow over 95.5
Over 95.5
76.7%
Under 95.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Moscow total 101 · main lineActual: CSKA Moscow under 101
Over 101
57.6%
@ 1.84+6.8pp
Under 101
42.4%
@ 1.90-6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.90
1xBet
1.90
CSKA Moscow total 104.5Actual: CSKA Moscow under 104.5
Over 104.5
43.5%
@ 2.16+1.4pp
Under 104.5
56.5%
@ 1.57-1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.16
Under
1xBet
1.57

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%9%0%-721%-691%-661%-632%-603%-575%-546%-517%-488%-459%-429%-399%-369%-338%-306%-275%-244%-213%-181%-151%-121%-90%-6
0%-721%-662%-605%-547%-489%-429%-368%-305%-243%-181%-120%-6
Margin from Samara's side (positive = Samara win). Pythia's expected margin is -37.7; Samara win by 1+ in 0% of simulations.
Spread Samara +32.5Actual: Samara +32.5
SAM +32.5
33.4%
@ 2.41-5.3pp
CMO -32.5
66.6%
@ 1.51+5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SAM
Marathon Be
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Pinnacle
2.39
CMO
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathon Be
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Spread Samara +35.5 · main lineActual: Samara +35.5
SAM +35.5
42.8%
@ 1.98-7.1pp
CMO -35.5
57.2%
@ 1.86+7.1pp
Best 5 market prices
SAM
1xBet
1.98
Marathon Be
1.94
Pinnacle
1.87
CMO
Pinnacle
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.82
Spread Samara +38.5Actual: Samara +38.5
SAM +38.5
52.6%
@ 1.57-6.6pp
CMO -38.5
47.4%
@ 2.28+6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
SAM
Marathon Be
1.57
1xBet
1.57
CMO
Marathon Be
2.28
1xBet
2.28

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: -6.6-6.6Q2: +8.2+8.2Q3Q3: -8.3-8.3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: -8.0-8.0Q4: +7.4+7.4
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: -6.6-6.6Q2: +8.2+8.2Q3Q3: -8.3-8.3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: -8.0-8.0Q4: +7.4+7.4
SamaraCSKA Moscow
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SamaraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
MBA Moscow
#7
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A22/04
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A26/09
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H04/10
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
29-50
29
50
-21
H07/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A14/10
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H17/10
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
L
32-48
32
48
-16
H21/10
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H25/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
L
32-52
32
52
-20
A03/11
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
L
25-50
25
50
-25
A11/11
VTB United League
80.7Avg total
34.7Scored
46.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)34.447.381.6-12.917%47%
Last 30 at home (17)34.848.583.2-13.712%47%
Last 30 away (13)33.845.779.5-11.823%46%
Last 10 (10)34.746.080.7-11.310%30%
Last 5 (5)32.049.081.0-17.00%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)34.447.381.6-12.917%47%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (CSKA Moscow) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CSKA MoscowLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unics Kazan
#2
W
50-49
50
49
+1
A10/06
VTB United League
MBA Moscow
#7
W
55-25
55
25
+30
A27/09
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H07/10
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
W
54-40
54
40
+14
H11/10
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
W
55-41
55
41
+14
A14/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A17/10
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
56-30
56
30
+26
H23/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
L
25-26
25
26
-1
H27/10
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
W
45-36
45
36
+9
H08/11
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H11/11
VTB United League
85.9Avg total
48.6Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)49.837.287.0+12.687%57%
Last 30 at home (18)49.139.989.0+9.278%61%
Last 30 away (12)50.833.283.9+17.6100%50%
Last 10 (10)48.637.385.9+11.380%60%
Last 5 (5)44.833.878.6+11.080%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)49.837.287.0+12.687%57%
This opponent (Samara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Samara +19.5 · main lineActual: Samara +19.5
SAM +19.5
54.5%
@ 1.87+4.5pp
CMO -19.5
45.5%
@ 1.87-4.5pp
1st half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Over 83.5
Over
53.0%
@ 1.87+3.0pp
Under
47.0%
@ 1.87-3.0pp
Samara 1st half total 31.5 · main lineActual: Samara over 31.5
Over
58.1%
@ 1.88+8.3pp
Under
41.9%
@ 1.86-8.3pp
CSKA Moscow 1st half total 52 · main lineActual: CSKA Moscow under 52
Over
46.1%
@ 1.87-3.9pp
Under
53.9%
@ 1.87+3.9pp
1st half Spread Samara +20.5Actual: Samara +20.5
SAM +20.5
58.4%
@ 1.87+8.4pp
CMO -20.5
41.6%
@ 1.87-8.4pp
1st half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Over 81.5
Over
60.7%
@ 1.63+4.1pp
Under
39.3%
@ 2.13-4.1pp
1st half Spread Samara +21.5Actual: Samara +21.5
SAM +21.5
62.5%
@ 1.65+6.5pp
CMO -21.5
37.5%
@ 2.10-6.5pp
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: CSKA Moscow (regulation)
SAM
2.3%
@ 18.00-2.9pp
Draw
0.7%
@ 40.00-1.6pp
CMO
97.0%
@ 1.01+4.5pp

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 3 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Q3: CSKA Moscow (regulation)89.0%1.11
Marathon Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11		---+6.6ppWon
1st half: CSKA Moscow (regulation)97.0%1.01
1xBet
1.01		----+4.5ppWon
Q2: CSKA Moscow (regulation)88.5%1.03
Marathon Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.03		----0.2ppWon
Q1: CSKA Moscow (regulation)89.1%1.01
Marathon Bet
1.01
1xBet
1.01		----1.1ppWon
Q1: Draw or CSKA Moscow91.5%1.02
1xBet
1.02		-----Won
Q3: Draw or CSKA Moscow91.4%1.05
Marathon Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.05		----Won
CSKA Moscow -27.578.5%1.17
Marathon Bet
1.17		-----Won
CSKA Moscow -2877.9%1.18
Marathon Bet
1.18		-----Won
CSKA Moscow -28.576.0%1.21
Marathon Bet
1.21		-----Won
CSKA Moscow -2975.4%1.22
Marathon Bet
1.22		-----Push
CSKA Moscow -29.573.3%1.26
Marathon Bet
1.26		-----Lost
CSKA Moscow -3072.6%1.28
Marathon Bet
1.28		-----Lost
Over 158.572.5%1.36
Marathon Bet
1.36		-----Won
Over 15971.9%1.37
Marathon Bet
1.37		-----Won
Samara +44.571.0%1.16
Marathon Bet
1.16		-----Won
CSKA Moscow -30.570.7%1.32
Marathon Bet
1.32		-----Lost
Over 159.570.4%1.40
Marathon Bet
1.40		-----Won
Samara +4470.2%1.17
Marathon Bet
1.17		-----Won
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Samaratheir own shots, last 10 games
No box scores for this team yet.
CSKA Moscowtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

CSKA Moscow: 83.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀37%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀25%
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.4 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.9 pts a game · 25% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.615.2
46.6%
-30.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.310.6
35.0%
-31.8
🏀 Free throws24.720.9
84.6%
-20.9
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Samara wins
10
CSKA Moscow wins
DateGameScore
04/04/26Samara v CSKA Moscow72-109
13/01/26CSKA Moscow v Samara103-60
12/12/25CSKA Moscow v Samara113-60
30/09/25Samara v CSKA Moscow63-82
02/04/25CSKA Moscow v Samara103-66
05/02/25Samara v CSKA Moscow44-102
18/12/24Samara v CSKA Moscow63-93
01/12/24CSKA Moscow v Samara97-77
07/01/24Samara v CSKA Moscow82-92
08/11/23CSKA Moscow v Samara94-76
Samaralast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AZenit Petersburg56-92
03/11/26AParma Perm68-109
25/10/26HLokomotiv Kuban62-92
21/10/26HZenit Petersburg65-99
17/10/26HUralmash Ekaterinburg75-94
14/10/26AEnisey70-91
07/10/26HUnics Kazan62-117
04/10/26HDynamo Vladivostok84-98
26/09/26ASaratov69-77
22/04/26AMBA Moscow61-79
CSKA Moscowlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HDynamo Vladivostok106-75
08/11/26HZenit Petersburg80-68
27/10/26HParma Perm79-57
23/10/26HSaratov117-55
17/10/26AEnisey85-59
14/10/26ADynamo Vladivostok103-88
11/10/26HLokomotiv Kuban87-84
07/10/26HUralmash Ekaterinburg90-85
27/09/26AMBA Moscow82-65
10/06/26AUnics Kazan102-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Samara
VTB United League 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLLLL0%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game67.969.665.8
Allowed / game96.6100.092.2
Point differential-28.7-30.4-26.5
Avg total164.4169.6158.0
Over 16644%60%25%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
CSKA Moscow
VTB United League 2026-27
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games963
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game92.193.290.0
Allowed / game70.770.770.7
Point differential+21.4+22.5+19.3
Avg total162.8163.8160.7
Over 16656%67%33%
Win by 10+78%67%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 CSKA Moscow990100%92.170.7+21.4
2 Lokomotiv Kuban87188%91.476.5+14.9
3 Unics Kazan97278%93.174.8+18.3
4 Zenit Petersburg107370%85.075.1+9.9
5 Uralmash Ekaterinburg95456%84.384.2+0.1
6 Parma Perm94544%87.486.4+1.0
7 MBA Moscow94544%88.090.0-2.0
8 Dynamo Vladivostok103730%88.197.3-9.2
9 Saratov103730%72.888.8-16.0
10 Enisey81712%81.488.6-7.2
11 Samara9090%67.996.6-28.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Samara231782068
CSKA Moscow2922222497
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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