San Diego Toreros host Tarleton on 6 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup where the Pythia model names the Toreros the favourite, assigning them a 76% chance to win, largely because their single game record of 1-0 is coupled with a 79.0 points per game average and 62.0 points allowed per game, placing them 135th in the league; Tarleton, also 1-0, averages 86.0 points scored and 60.0 allowed, ranking 106th. The Toreros' lone home game shows a 1-0 record, 79.0 points scored and 62.0 allowed, while their last five games contain two wins and three losses, including a 79-62 victory over Biola at home; Tarleton's last five feature one win and four losses, with an 86-60 win over Cameron at home. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a final score of 81-73, with the Toreros covering the -6.0 line 58% of the time and the over on the 148.5 total 60% of the time, and a 4% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
San Diego Toreros winWon
75.9%fair 1.32
Best odds1.32
Implied72.8%
Edge+3.1pp
Tarleton winLost
24.1%fair 4.15
Best odds3.60
Implied27.2%
Edge-3.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (San Diego Toreros) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143Actual: Over 143
Over 143
73.1%
@ 1.43+8.2pp
Under 143
26.9%
@ 2.65-8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 148 · main lineActual: Over 148
Over 148
61.9%
@ 1.92+11.8pp
Under 148
38.1%
@ 1.95-11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Over/Under 153Actual: Over 153
Over 153
49.6%
@ 2.50+12.1pp
Under 153
50.4%
@ 1.50-12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
San Diego Toreros total 72.5Actual: San Diego Toreros over 72.5
Over 72.5
no forecast
@ 1.35
Under 72.5
no forecast
@ 3.25
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.25
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.90
San Diego Toreros total 77 · main lineActual: San Diego Toreros over 77
Over 77
64.2%
@ 1.87+14.5pp
Under 77
35.8%
@ 1.85-14.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
San Diego Toreros total 81Actual: San Diego Toreros over 81
Over 81
48.0%
Under 81
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarleton total 67Actual: Tarleton over 67
Over 67
71.0%
Under 67
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarleton total 71 · main lineActual: Tarleton over 71
Over 71
55.7%
@ 1.85+5.7pp
Under 71
44.3%
@ 1.85-5.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Tarleton total 75Actual: Tarleton over 75
Over 75
39.7%
Under 75
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread San Diego Toreros -10Actual: Tarleton +10
SAN -10
42.5%
@ 2.25+1.4pp
TARL +10
57.5%
@ 1.57-1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
2.25
TARL
Bet365
1.57
Spread San Diego Toreros -7 · main lineActual: Tarleton +7
SAN -7
54.0%
@ 1.88+2.8pp
TARL +7
46.0%
@ 1.97-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
TARL
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.96
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Spread San Diego Toreros -4Actual: San Diego Toreros -4
SAN -4
65.5%
@ 1.65+7.5pp
TARL +4
34.5%
@ 2.40-7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.52
TARL
Bet365
2.40
Pinnacle
2.28
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
San Diego TorerosTarleton
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (San Diego Toreros) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: San Diego Toreros win
SAN win
no forecast
@ 1.52
TARL win
no forecast
@ 2.57
2nd half Spread San Diego Toreros -3.5 · main lineActual: San Diego Toreros -3.5
SAN -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
TARL +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
SAN
no forecast
@ 1.55
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
TARL
no forecast
@ 2.62
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 143.5
71.7%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Over 142.5
73.7%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Over 144
71.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Over 142
75.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Over 143
73.1%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Over 141.5
75.7%
1.37
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
San Diego Toreros +1
77.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
San Diego Toreros +2.5
80.9%
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
San Diego Toreros +2
80.3%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
San Diego Toreros +4.5
85.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Over 141
77.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Over 140.5
77.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
San Diego Toreros +14.5
96.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
San Diego Toreros +9.5
92.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
San Diego Toreros +1.5
77.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
San Diego Toreros (regulation)
73.5%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Marathon Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
San Diego Toreros -2
72.5%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Over 138.5
81.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Tarleton over 63.5
81.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
San Diego Toreros -1.5
73.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Tarleton over 64.5
78.2%
1.26
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.8%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.7pp
-
Tarleton over 66.5
72.0%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Tarleton over 61.5
85.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
San Diego Toreros -1
75.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Tarleton over 55.5
95.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Tarleton over 53.5
96.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Tarleton over 65.5
75.2%
1.31
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Over 139.5
79.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Tarleton over 57.5
93.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Tarleton over 54.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Over 128.5
93.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Tarleton over 56.5
94.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Over 133.5
88.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Tarleton over 59.5
89.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
San Diego Toreros win
75.9%
1.31
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathon Bet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31
+3.1pp
Won
Over 129.5
92.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Tarleton over 58.5
91.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Tarleton over 62.5
83.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
San Diego Toreros under 98.5
96.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Tarleton over 60.5
88.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Over 134.5
87.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
San Diego Toreros under 96.5
94.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
San Diego Toreros under 94.5
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Lost
Tarleton +14.5
72.1%
1.28
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Tarleton +20.5
86.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Tarleton +15.5
75.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Tarleton +15
74.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Tarleton +14
71.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Under 174.5
90.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Lost
San Diego Toreros under 92.5
88.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Lost
Under 173.5
89.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Lost
San Diego Toreros under 88.5
78.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Lost
Tarleton under 80.5
78.1%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Lost
Tarleton under 78.5
72.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Lost
San Diego Toreros under 90.5
84.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Lost
Tarleton under 79.5
75.2%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Lost
Under 169.5
84.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Lost
Under 168.5
82.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Lost
San Diego Toreros under 87.5
75.7%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Lost
Under 164.5
75.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Lost
San Diego Toreros under 86.5
72.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Lost
Under 163.5
74.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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