The NBB clash on 16 November 2026 pits Sao Jose against Mogi, with the model favouring Mogi as the likely winner and predicting a close contest. Sao Jose, 3-4 this season, averages 80.3 points and concedes 81.7, while Mogi, 6-1, posts 83.1 points and allows 73.9, a stark contrast that underpins the forecast. Sao Jose's home record stands at 2-1, scoring 86.0 and allowing 71.7, and the team has won three of its last five games, including a 79-65 victory over Paulistano at home on 13 November. Mogi's road record is 3-1, with 82.8 points for and 74.0 against, and it has won all five of its recent outings, most recently beating Osasco 93-75 away on 12 November. In their ten meetings, Mogi holds a 6-4 edge, having last bested Sao Jose 81-70 on 27 April. The model assigns a 40% chance to Sao Jose and a 60% chance to Mogi, projects a final score of 78-81 and a total of 158.4 points, and sees the home team covering the 7.5-point line with a 65% probability while the over on the 159.5 line has a 47% chance; overtime is unlikely at 5%. The game will hinge on whether Sao Jose can counter Mogi's recent dominance.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 80.3 | 81.7 | 162.0 | -1.4 | 43% |
| Season at home (3) | 86.0 | 71.7 | 157.7 | +14.3 | 67% |
| Season away (4) | 76.0 | 89.2 | 165.2 | -13.2 | 25% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.7 | 80.7 | 158.4 | -3.0 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 87.0 | 79.8 | 166.8 | +7.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 79.4 | 90.2 | 169.6 | -10.9 | 12% |
| vs Similar (11) | 76.3 | 80.4 | 156.6 | -4.1 | 36% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 88.7 | 78.8 | 167.5 | +9.9 | 82% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 83.1 | 73.9 | 157.0 | +9.3 | 86% |
| Season at home (3) | 83.7 | 73.7 | 157.3 | +10.0 | 100% |
| Season away (4) | 82.8 | 74.0 | 156.8 | +8.8 | 75% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.1 | 77.3 | 160.4 | +5.8 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 84.8 | 70.8 | 155.6 | +14.0 | 100% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 79.6 | 86.4 | 166.0 | -6.9 | 29% |
| vs Similar (11) | 77.6 | 73.4 | 151.0 | +4.3 | 73% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 81.2 | 73.1 | 154.3 | +8.2 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.1 | 41.2 | 83.3 | +0.9 | 50% | 63% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 45.0 | 43.1 | 88.1 | +1.9 | 57% | 93% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 39.5 | 39.5 | 79.0 | +0.0 | 44% | 38% |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.9 | 39.3 | 81.2 | +2.6 | 40% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 46.6 | 39.4 | 86.0 | +7.2 | 40% | 100% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 40.9 | 46.2 | 87.1 | -5.4 | 38% | 75% |
| vs Similar (11) | 39.6 | 41.1 | 80.7 | -1.5 | 45% | 45% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 45.4 | 37.6 | 83.0 | +7.7 | 64% | 73% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.1 | 38.7 | 78.8 | +1.4 | 63% | 37% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 39.1 | 38.1 | 77.2 | +0.9 | 69% | 31% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 41.3 | 39.4 | 80.7 | +1.9 | 57% | 43% |
| Last 10 (10) | 42.0 | 42.0 | 84.0 | +0.0 | 60% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.4 | 37.8 | 76.2 | +0.6 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 41.7 | 46.3 | 88.0 | -4.6 | 29% | 71% |
| vs Similar (11) | 37.7 | 35.2 | 72.9 | +2.5 | 82% | 9% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 41.3 | 37.6 | 78.9 | +3.8 | 67% | 42% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Jose +16.5 | 88.1% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +19.2pp |
| Sao Jose +15.5 | 86.4% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +15.4pp |
| Mogi under 88.5 | 77.9% | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | +14.0pp |
| Sao Jose over 70.5 | 75.7% | 1.42 | 1.42 | - | - | - | - | +10.8pp |
| Mogi under 86.5 | 71.7% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +10.7pp |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 39.3 | 16.8 | 49.8% | 33.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.9 | 8.4 | 31.6% | 25.2 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 20.7 | 14.1 | 71.3% | 14.1 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 36.7 | 18.7 | 49.8% | 37.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 31.8 | 10.5 | 31.6% | 31.5 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 14.0 | 10.6 | 71.3% | 10.6 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 27/04/26 | Mogi v Sao Jose | 81-70 |
| 25/04/26 | Mogi v Sao Jose | 79-75 |
| 22/04/26 | Sao Jose v Mogi | 70-75 |
| 22/02/26 | Mogi v Sao Jose | 78-68 |
| 19/12/25 | Sao Jose v Mogi | 79-61 |
| 04/02/25 | Mogi v Sao Jose | 97-93 OT |
| 15/11/24 | Sao Jose v Mogi | 89-79 |
| 09/03/24 | Mogi v Sao Jose | 79-64 |
| 12/12/23 | Sao Jose v Mogi | 84-73 |
| 12/03/20 | Sao Jose v Mogi | 97-89 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWLW | 43% |
| Home | LWW | 67% |
| Away | LLWL | 25% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Win % | 43% | 67% | 25% |
| Points / game | 80.3 | 86.0 | 76.0 |
| Allowed / game | 81.7 | 71.7 | 89.2 |
| Point differential | -1.4 | +14.3 | -13.2 |
| Avg total | 162.0 | 157.7 | 165.2 |
| Over 159.5 | 43% | 33% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 29% | 67% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWWW | 86% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | LWWW | 75% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Win % | 86% | 100% | 75% |
| Points / game | 83.1 | 83.7 | 82.8 |
| Allowed / game | 73.9 | 73.7 | 74.0 |
| Point differential | +9.3 | +10.0 | +8.8 |
| Avg total | 157.0 | 157.3 | 156.8 |
| Over 159.5 | 43% | 33% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 71% | 67% | 75% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 85.1 | 65.4 | +19.8 | |
| 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 83.1 | 73.9 | +9.3 | |
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 85.2 | 73.1 | +12.1 | |
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 80.9 | 73.4 | +7.4 | |
| 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 79.4 | 75.1 | +4.3 | |
| 6 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 78.9 | 71.6 | +7.2 | |
| 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 72.3 | 74.7 | -2.4 | |
| 8 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 80.6 | 79.8 | +0.9 | |
| 9 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 76.2 | 78.8 | -2.7 | |
| 10 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 80.0 | 79.0 | +1.0 | |
| 11 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 76.7 | 77.7 | -1.0 | |
| 12 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 80.3 | 81.7 | -1.4 | |
| 13 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 69.6 | 73.9 | -4.3 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 76.7 | 83.0 | -6.3 | |
| 15 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 72.6 | 81.5 | -8.9 | |
| 16 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 77.8 | 86.8 | -9.0 | |
| 17 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 65.6 | 83.7 | -18.1 | |
| 18 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0% | 64.7 | 79.6 | -14.9 |
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