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Sao Jose vs Mogi Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 16 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 22:30
Projected 78-81
Projected total 158.4
Scheduled
Position#12
Record3-4
FormLWWLW
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game81.7
Vs
40%
60%
■ SAO 40%■ MOGI 60%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.3/10
Around normal
3.3/10
Below normal
Position#2
Record6-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game83.1
Allowed / game73.9
BrazilNBB· Ginasio Lineu de Moura
Other2026-27
Meetings · Sao Jose v Mogi
16 Nov 2026
SAO v MOGI
upcoming
22 Apr 2026
SAO 70
MOGI75
19 Dec 2025
SAO 79
MOGI61
15 Nov 2024
SAO 89
MOGI79
12 Dec 2023
SAO 84
MOGI73
12 Mar 2020
SAO 97
MOGI89
05 Nov 2018
SAO 74
MOGI96
29 Mar 2016
SAO 81
MOGI86
13 Mar 2015
SAO 79
MOGI89
19 Dec 2013
SAO 90
MOGI78
10 Jan 2013
SAO 105
MOGI67
Sections
Game preview & prediction

The NBB clash on 16 November 2026 pits Sao Jose against Mogi, with the model favouring Mogi as the likely winner and predicting a close contest. Sao Jose, 3-4 this season, averages 80.3 points and concedes 81.7, while Mogi, 6-1, posts 83.1 points and allows 73.9, a stark contrast that underpins the forecast. Sao Jose's home record stands at 2-1, scoring 86.0 and allowing 71.7, and the team has won three of its last five games, including a 79-65 victory over Paulistano at home on 13 November. Mogi's road record is 3-1, with 82.8 points for and 74.0 against, and it has won all five of its recent outings, most recently beating Osasco 93-75 away on 12 November. In their ten meetings, Mogi holds a 6-4 edge, having last bested Sao Jose 81-70 on 27 April. The model assigns a 40% chance to Sao Jose and a 60% chance to Mogi, projects a final score of 78-81 and a total of 158.4 points, and sees the home team covering the 7.5-point line with a 65% probability while the over on the 159.5 line has a 47% chance; overtime is unlikely at 5%. The game will hinge on whether Sao Jose can counter Mogi's recent dominance.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Jose win
39.9%fair 2.51
Best odds3.15
Implied34.0%
Edge+5.9pp
Mogi win
60.1%fair 1.66
Best odds1.40
Implied66.0%
Edge-5.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 06:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao JoseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJose
Date
Competition
Mogi
#8
L
70-75
70
75
-5
56avg 73
H22/04
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
75-79
75
79
-4
59avg 73
A25/04
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
70-81
70
81
-11
60avg 73
A27/04
NBB
Franca
#6
L
59-90
59
90
-31
42avg 73
A19/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
L
68-83
68
83
-15
54avg 73
A21/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#5
L
83-97
83
97
-14
72avg 73
H28/10
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
96-53
96
53
+43
no box
H02/11
NBB
Osasco
#16
W
90-81
90
81
+9
no box
A05/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
87-103
87
103
-16
no box
A07/11
NBB
Paulistano
#13
W
79-65
79
65
+14
no box
H13/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-16
14-21
16-20
15-18
17-16
21-25
18-15
19-23
18-25
17-17
22-19
13-20
15-17
17-25
12-23
15-25
22-23
20-11
17-25
9-24
16-26
27-23
17-23
23-25
27-11
31-12
24-15
14-15
31-16
19-17
28-13
12-35
21-22
19-28
16-30
31-23
26-22
16-20
17-7
20-16
158.4Avg total
77.7Scored
80.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)80.381.7162.0-1.443%
Season at home (3)86.071.7157.7+14.367%
Season away (4)76.089.2165.2-13.225%
Last 10 (10)77.780.7158.4-3.030%
Last 5 (5)87.079.8166.8+7.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)79.490.2169.6-10.912%
vs Similar (11)76.380.4156.6-4.136%
vs Weaker (11)88.778.8167.5+9.982%
This opponent (Mogi) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MogiBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMogi
Date
Competition
Franca
#1
L
70-88
70
88
-18
65avg 69
H10/05
NBB
Franca
#1
W
102-90
102
90
+12
103avg 69
A13/05
NBB
Franca
#1
L
77-78
77
78
-1
74avg 69
A15/05
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
W
84-73
84
73
+11
80avg 69
H17/10
NBB
Franca
#6
L
74-90
74
90
-16
67avg 69
A21/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
W
79-61
79
61
+18
58avg 69
A23/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#5
W
78-70
78
70
+8
65avg 69
H26/10
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
89-78
89
78
+11
no box
H04/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
W
85-70
85
70
+15
no box
A09/11
NBB
Osasco
#16
W
93-75
93
75
+18
no box
A12/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-34
24-24
14-16
16-14
28-26
31-21
26-23
17-20
25-20
11-20
23-17
18-21
18-17
26-21
18-24
22-11
18-24
31-24
9-19
16-23
20-15
19-19
23-9
17-18
19-20
17-22
25-15
17-13
11-21
22-21
26-19
30-17
22-14
15-20
23-24
25-12
27-25
20-12
27-16
19-22
160.4Avg total
83.1Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)83.173.9157.0+9.386%
Season at home (3)83.773.7157.3+10.0100%
Season away (4)82.874.0156.8+8.875%
Last 10 (10)83.177.3160.4+5.870%
Last 5 (5)84.870.8155.6+14.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)79.686.4166.0-6.929%
vs Similar (11)77.673.4151.0+4.373%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)81.273.1154.3+8.283%
This opponent (Sao Jose) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 156.5
Over 156.5
53.8%
@ 1.53-5.9pp
Under 156.5
46.2%
@ 2.27+5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.27
Over/Under 161.5 · main line
Over 161.5
41.8%
@ 1.91-7.6pp
Under 161.5
58.2%
@ 1.85+7.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.81
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Over/Under 166.5
Over 166.5
30.7%
@ 2.47-6.3pp
Under 166.5
69.3%
@ 1.45+6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Sao Jose total 73.5
Over 73.5
65.6%
@ 1.52+5.2pp
Under 73.5
34.4%
@ 2.32-5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.32
Sao Jose total 77.5 · main line
Over 77.5
50.6%
@ 1.98+2.5pp
Under 77.5
49.4%
@ 1.79-2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.79
Under
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.70
Sao Jose total 81.5
Over 81.5
35.6%
@ 2.55-0.5pp
Under 81.5
64.4%
@ 1.44+0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.44
Mogi total 78.5
Over 78.5
58.2%
@ 1.42-6.5pp
Under 78.5
41.8%
@ 2.60+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.60
Mogi total 82.5 · main line
Over 82.5
42.7%
@ 1.79-10.1pp
Under 82.5
57.3%
@ 2.07+10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.07
1xBet
1.79
Mogi total 86.5
Over 86.5
28.3%
@ 2.20-13.3pp
Under 86.5
71.7%
@ 1.57+13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.57

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Sao Jose +5
SAO +5
56.5%
@ 2.36+17.3pp
MOGI -5
43.5%
@ 1.52-17.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SAO
Pinnacle
2.36
MOGI
Pinnacle
1.52
Spread Sao Jose +8 · main line
SAO +8
67.6%
@ 1.85+17.2pp
MOGI -8
32.4%
@ 1.88-17.2pp
Best 5 market prices
SAO
Pinnacle
1.85
MOGI
Pinnacle
1.88
Spread Sao Jose +11
SAO +11
76.9%
MOGI -11
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
SAO
No market prices yet.
MOGI
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: -5.3-5.3Q4: +2.6+2.6
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: -5.3-5.3Q4: +2.6+2.6
Sao JoseMogi
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao JoseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mogi
#8
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H22/04
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A25/04
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A27/04
NBB
Franca
#6
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A19/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A21/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#5
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H28/10
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
58-23
58
23
+35
H02/11
NBB
Osasco
#16
W
50-33
50
33
+17
A05/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
40-50
40
50
-10
A07/11
NBB
Paulistano
#13
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H13/11
NBB
81.2Avg total
41.9Scored
39.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)42.141.283.3+0.950%47%
Last 30 at home (14)45.043.188.1+1.957%79%
Last 30 away (16)39.539.579.0+0.044%19%
Last 10 (10)41.939.381.2+2.640%30%
Last 5 (5)46.639.486.0+7.240%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)40.946.287.1-5.438%62%
vs Similar (11)39.641.180.7-1.545%45%
vs Weaker (11)45.437.683.0+7.764%36%
This opponent (Mogi) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MogiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Franca
#1
L
40-58
40
58
-18
H10/05
NBB
Franca
#1
W
59-47
59
47
+12
A13/05
NBB
Franca
#1
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A15/05
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H17/10
NBB
Franca
#6
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A21/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A23/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#5
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H26/10
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H04/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A09/11
NBB
Osasco
#16
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A12/11
NBB
84.0Avg total
42.0Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)40.138.778.8+1.463%27%
Last 30 at home (16)39.138.177.2+0.969%19%
Last 30 away (14)41.339.480.7+1.957%36%
Last 10 (10)42.042.084.0+0.060%40%
Last 5 (5)38.437.876.2+0.660%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)41.746.388.0-4.629%57%
vs Similar (11)37.735.272.9+2.582%9%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)41.337.678.9+3.867%25%
This opponent (Sao Jose) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
SAO win
no forecast
@ 3.09
MOGI win
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Sao Jose +4.5 · main line
SAO +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
MOGI -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 83.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Sao Jose 1st half total 39.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Mogi 1st half total 42.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 82
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Sao Jose +3.5
SAO +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.02
MOGI -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Spread Sao Jose +5.5
SAO +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
MOGI -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 85.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Over/Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Spread Sao Jose +2.5
SAO +2.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
MOGI -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread Sao Jose +6.5
SAO +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
MOGI -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
1st half Over/Under 79
Over
no forecast
@ 1.65
Under
no forecast
@ 2.13
1st half Spread Sao Jose +1.5
SAO +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
MOGI -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Sao Jose +7.5
SAO +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
MOGI -7.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
SAO
no forecast
@ 3.14
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
MOGI
no forecast
@ 1.47

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
SAO win + total 160.5
🔒 Pro
MOGI win + total 160.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: SAO leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Sao Jose +16.588.1%1.33
Betano
1.33
----+19.2pp
Sao Jose +11.577.5%1.52
Betano
1.52
----+17.1pp
Mogi under 87.574.9%1.50
Betano
1.50
----+13.6pp
Sao Jose over 70.575.7%1.42
Betano
1.42
----+10.8pp
Under 167.571.4%1.42
Betano
1.42
----+6.5pp
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 12 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Josetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Jose: 72.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.316.8
42.7%
49.8%33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.98.4
30.1%
31.6%25.2
🏀 Free throws20.714.1
68.1%
71.3%14.1
They take 67.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Mogitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mogi: 79.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.6 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.718.7
51.0%
49.8%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.810.5
33.0%
31.6%31.5
🏀 Free throws14.010.6
75.7%
71.3%10.6
They take 68.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Jose
WLWWLLLLLL
Mogi
WWWWWLWLWL
#12
League position
#2
-9.8
Net rating
+0.7
82.2
Offensive rating
96.5
92.1
Defensive rating
95.8
43.8%
Effective FG%
50.3%
51.4%
Opp. effective FG%
52.7%
15.0%
Turnover %
12.2%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.20
30.1%
3-point %
33.0%
63.9%
Assist %
62.7%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence82.2 · 96.5Defence92.1 · 95.8Shooting43.8% · 50.3%3-point %30.1% · 33.0%Ball care15.0% · 12.2%Free throws0.31 · 0.20Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ Sao Jose   ■ Mogi
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Sao Jose wins
6
Mogi wins
DateGameScore
27/04/26Mogi v Sao Jose81-70
25/04/26Mogi v Sao Jose79-75
22/04/26Sao Jose v Mogi70-75
22/02/26Mogi v Sao Jose78-68
19/12/25Sao Jose v Mogi79-61
04/02/25Mogi v Sao Jose97-93 OT
15/11/24Sao Jose v Mogi89-79
09/03/24Mogi v Sao Jose79-64
12/12/23Sao Jose v Mogi84-73
12/03/20Sao Jose v Mogi97-89
Sao Joselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HPaulistano79-65
07/11/26APinheiros87-103
05/11/26AOsasco90-81
02/11/26HCearense96-53
28/10/26HUnifacisa83-97
21/10/26ABauru68-83
19/10/26AFranca59-90
27/04/26AMogi70-81
25/04/26AMogi75-79
22/04/26HMogi70-75
Mogilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AOsasco93-75
09/11/26APinheiros85-70
04/11/26HCearense89-78
26/10/26HUnifacisa78-70
23/10/26ABauru79-61
21/10/26AFranca74-90
17/10/26HCorinthians Paulista84-73
15/05/26AFranca77-78
13/05/26AFranca102-90
10/05/26HFranca70-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Jose
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW43%
HomeLWW67%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %43%67%25%
Points / game80.386.076.0
Allowed / game81.771.789.2
Point differential-1.4+14.3-13.2
Avg total162.0157.7165.2
Over 161.543%33%50%
Win by 10+29%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mogi
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %86%100%75%
Points / game83.183.782.8
Allowed / game73.973.774.0
Point differential+9.3+10.0+8.8
Avg total157.0157.3156.8
Over 161.543%33%50%
Win by 10+71%67%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas880100%85.165.4+19.8
2 Mogi76186%83.173.9+9.3
3 Pinheiros86275%85.273.1+12.1
4 Flamengo75271%80.973.4+7.4
5 Unifacisa75271%79.475.1+4.3
6 Franca85362%78.971.6+7.2
7 Uniao Corinthians74357%72.374.7-2.4
8 Brasilia84450%80.679.8+0.9
9 Cruzeiro63350%76.278.8-2.7
10 Corinthians Paulista73443%80.079.0+1.0
11 Bauru73443%76.777.7-1.0
12 Sao Jose73443%80.381.7-1.4
13 Paulistano73443%69.673.9-4.3
14 Botafogo62433%76.783.0-6.3
15 Pato82625%72.681.5-8.9
16 Osasco61517%77.886.8-9.0
17 Cearense71614%65.683.7-18.1
18 Caxias do Sul7070%64.779.6-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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