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Skenderbeu vs Apolonia Fier Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 15:00
Projected 80-87
Projected total 166.5
Scheduled
Position#6
Record3-2
FormWLLWW
Points / game93.0
Allowed / game80.2
Skenderbeu
Albania
Vs
28%
72%
■ SKEN 28%■ APOL 72%
Pythia win probability
Apolonia Fier
Albania
Position#5
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game91.8
Allowed / game70.0
AlbaniaSuperliga· Tamara Nikolla Sports Palace
Other2026-27
Meetings · Skenderbeu v Apolonia Fier
15 Nov 2026
SKEN v APOL
upcoming
18 Apr 2026
SKEN76
APOL90
05 Oct 2025
SKEN68
APOL81
11 Apr 2024
SKEN64
APOL89
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Skenderbeu will host Apolonia Fier on 15 November 2026 in the Superliga, with the model favouring Apolonia Fier who holds a 72% chance of victory over Skenderbeu's 28% and a projected score of 80-87. Skenderbeu, 3-2 overall, averages 93.0 points scored and 80.2 points allowed, sits in sixth place, and has a 0-1 home record with 88.0 points for and 97.0 against; their last five games include two wins over Partizani Tirana and PBC Flamurtari and a loss to Teuta Durres. Apolonia Fier, 3-1 overall, averages 91.8 points scored and 70.0 points allowed, occupies fifth place, and is unbeaten on the road with a 2-0 record, 88.5 points for and 64.5 against; their last five games contain two home wins over Elbasani and Partizani Tirana and a home loss to Kamza Basket. In their six meetings Skenderbeu has only one win to Apolonia Fier's five, the most recent clash ending 90-76 in favour of Apolonia Fier on 18 April 2026. The projected total of 166.5 points sits just below the main total line, and the 5% overtime probability suggests a tight contest, with Skenderbeu's home team covering the spread unlikely given the model's 28% win probability.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Skenderbeu win
27.8%fair 3.60
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Apolonia Fier win
72.2%fair 1.38
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SkenderbeuAlbaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSkenderbeu
Date
Competition
Beselidhja
#1
L
74-141
74
141
-67
34avg 77
H08/04
Superliga
PBC Flamurtari
#12
W
78-57
78
57
+21
73avg 77
A11/04
Superliga
Tirana
#2
L
72-151
72
151
-79
64avg 77
H13/04
Superliga
Apolonia Fier
#4
L
76-84
76
84
-8
62avg 77
A15/04
Superliga
Apolonia Fier
#4
L
76-90
76
90
-14
65avg 77
H18/04
Superliga
Pogradeci
#11
W
119-89
119
89
+30
no box
A13/10
Superliga
Beselidhja
#4
L
88-97
88
97
-9
no box
H18/10
Superliga
Teuta Durres
#3
L
72-80
72
80
-8
no box
A24/10
Superliga
PBC Flamurtari
#10
W
81-54
81
54
+27
no box
A31/10
Superliga
Partizani Tirana
#9
W
105-81
105
81
+24
no box
A09/11
Superliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-31
22-43
18-32
17-35
24-16
22-11
15-14
17-16
10-40
14-35
24-37
24-39
10-24
24-20
14-21
28-19
14-24
16-21
23-28
23-17
40-12
30-27
31-32
18-18
23-21
29-27
18-26
18-23
16-22
19-17
27-22
10-19
26-6
21-12
20-12
14-24
29-16
26-24
20-15
30-26
176.5Avg total
84.1Scored
92.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)93.080.2173.2+12.860%
Season at home (1)88.097.0185.0-9.00%
Season away (4)94.276.0170.2+18.275%
Last 10 (10)84.192.4176.5-8.340%
Last 5 (5)93.080.2173.2+12.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)76.896.6173.4-19.823%
vs Similar (3)84.787.7172.3-3.033%
vs Weaker (14)97.073.3170.3+23.793%
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Apolonia FierAlbaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormFier
Date
Competition
Beselidhja
#1
W
80-68
80
68
+12
74avg 83
H11/04
Superliga
Skenderbeu
#7
W
84-76
84
76
+8
89avg 83
H15/04
Superliga
Skenderbeu
#7
W
90-76
90
76
+14
86avg 83
A18/04
Superliga
Beselidhja
#1
L
71-93
71
93
-22
58avg 83
A25/04
Superliga
Beselidhja
#1
L
74-97
74
97
-23
68avg 83
H29/04
Superliga
Beselidhja
#1
L
78-95
78
95
-17
74avg 83
A02/05
Superliga
PBC Flamurtari
#10
W
84-70
84
70
+14
no box
A17/10
Superliga
Kamza Basket
#2
L
74-77
74
77
-3
no box
H24/10
Superliga
Partizani Tirana
#9
W
93-59
93
59
+34
no box
A01/11
Superliga
Elbasani
#8
W
116-74
116
74
+42
no box
H08/11
Superliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-24
20-14
19-13
21-17
24-10
20-24
21-14
19-28
24-14
21-16
28-23
17-23
20-23
12-28
18-17
21-25
19-20
18-26
12-25
25-26
21-26
21-19
18-23
18-27
21-14
18-23
27-19
18-14
15-15
18-16
18-27
23-19
20-17
29-11
25-15
19-16
26-17
22-22
31-20
37-15
162.9Avg total
84.4Scored
78.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)91.870.0161.8+21.875%
Season at home (2)95.075.5170.5+19.550%
Season away (2)88.564.5153.0+24.0100%
Last 10 (10)84.478.5162.9+5.960%
Last 5 (5)89.075.0164.0+14.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)79.690.1169.7-10.614%
vs Similar (4)75.282.5157.8-7.225%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)92.566.4158.9+26.189%
This opponent (Skenderbeu) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 166
Over 166
50.4%
Under 166
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171
Over 171
38.3%
Under 171
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 176
Over 176
27.3%
Under 176
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Skenderbeu total 82.5
Over 82.5
39.5%
Under 82.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu total 86.5
Over 86.5
25.9%
Under 86.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu total 90.5
Over 90.5
15.4%
Under 90.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier total 80.5
Over 80.5
72.5%
Under 80.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier total 84.5
Over 84.5
58.1%
Under 84.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier total 88.5
Over 88.5
42.4%
Under 88.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Skenderbeu -3
SKEN -3
20.5%
APOL +3
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
SKEN
No market prices yet.
APOL
No market prices yet.
Spread Skenderbeu 0
SKEN 0
27.8%
APOL 0
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
SKEN
No market prices yet.
APOL
No market prices yet.
Spread Skenderbeu +3
SKEN +3
35.4%
APOL -3
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
SKEN
No market prices yet.
APOL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -2.9-2.9Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: -3.7-3.7Q4: +0.8+0.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -2.9-2.9Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: -3.7-3.7Q4: +0.8+0.8
SkenderbeuApolonia Fier
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SkenderbeuLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Beselidhja
#1
L
39-74
39
74
-35
H08/04
Superliga
PBC Flamurtari
#12
W
46-27
46
27
+19
A11/04
Superliga
Tirana
#2
L
24-75
24
75
-51
H13/04
Superliga
Apolonia Fier
#4
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A15/04
Superliga
Apolonia Fier
#4
L
30-45
30
45
-15
H18/04
Superliga
Pogradeci
#11
W
70-39
70
39
+31
A13/10
Superliga
Beselidhja
#4
W
52-48
52
48
+4
H18/10
Superliga
Teuta Durres
#3
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A24/10
Superliga
PBC Flamurtari
#10
W
47-18
47
18
+29
A31/10
Superliga
Partizani Tirana
#9
W
55-40
55
40
+15
A09/11
Superliga
88.1Avg total
43.2Scored
44.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)44.542.086.5+2.552%-
Last 30 at home (13)45.146.291.3-1.254%-
Last 30 away (16)44.138.682.6+5.550%-
Last 10 (10)43.244.988.1-1.750%-
Last 5 (5)51.836.888.6+15.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)37.050.587.5-13.517%-
vs Similar (3)45.346.792.0-1.333%-
vs Weaker (14)50.833.784.5+17.186%-
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Apolonia FierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Beselidhja
#1
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H11/04
Superliga
Skenderbeu
#7
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H15/04
Superliga
Skenderbeu
#7
W
45-30
45
30
+15
A18/04
Superliga
Beselidhja
#1
L
32-51
32
51
-19
A25/04
Superliga
Beselidhja
#1
L
37-46
37
46
-9
H29/04
Superliga
Beselidhja
#1
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A02/05
Superliga
PBC Flamurtari
#10
W
39-37
39
37
+2
A17/10
Superliga
Kamza Basket
#2
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H24/10
Superliga
Partizani Tirana
#9
W
49-28
49
28
+21
A01/11
Superliga
Elbasani
#8
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H08/11
Superliga
78.8Avg total
40.9Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.836.978.7+4.967%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.035.377.3+6.780%-
Last 30 away (15)41.638.580.1+3.153%-
Last 10 (10)40.937.978.8+3.070%-
Last 5 (5)42.236.078.2+6.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)37.445.783.1-8.329%-
vs Similar (4)37.041.278.2-4.225%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)44.432.777.2+11.789%-
This opponent (Skenderbeu) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Skenderbeutheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Skenderbeu: 84.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.2 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.2 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.1 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.124.6
54.5%
56.6%49.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.78.1
39.1%
34.4%24.3
🏀 Free throws16.211.2
69.1%
67.5%11.2
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 31% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Apolonia Fiertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Apolonia Fier: 80.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.1 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.620.6
59.5%
56.6%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.39.1
28.2%
34.4%27.3
🏀 Free throws17.812.1
68.0%
67.5%12.1
They take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Skenderbeu
WWLLWLLLWL
Apolonia Fier
WWLWLLLWWW
#6
League position
#5
-6.5
Net rating
+2.6
99.5
Offensive rating
91.0
106.0
Defensive rating
88.4
55.9%
Effective FG%
51.2%
58.5%
Opp. effective FG%
49.8%
14.1%
Turnover %
15.4%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.27
39.1%
3-point %
28.2%
43.7%
Assist %
71.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence99.5 · 91.0Defence106.0 · 88.4Shooting55.9% · 51.2%3-point %39.1% · 28.2%Ball care14.1% · 15.4%Free throws0.25 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Skenderbeu   ■ Apolonia Fier
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Skenderbeu wins
5
Apolonia Fier wins
DateGameScore
18/04/26Skenderbeu v Apolonia Fier76-90
15/04/26Apolonia Fier v Skenderbeu84-76
18/01/26Apolonia Fier v Skenderbeu74-76 OT
05/10/25Skenderbeu v Apolonia Fier68-81
11/04/24Skenderbeu v Apolonia Fier64-89
15/12/23Apolonia Fier v Skenderbeu111-75
Skenderbeulast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/11/26APartizani Tirana105-81
31/10/26APBC Flamurtari81-54
24/10/26ATeuta Durres72-80
18/10/26HBeselidhja88-97
13/10/26APogradeci119-89
18/04/26HApolonia Fier76-90
15/04/26AApolonia Fier76-84
13/04/26HTirana72-151
11/04/26APBC Flamurtari78-57
08/04/26HBeselidhja74-141
Apolonia Fierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HElbasani116-74
01/11/26APartizani Tirana93-59
24/10/26HKamza Basket74-77
17/10/26APBC Flamurtari84-70
02/05/26ABeselidhja78-95
29/04/26HBeselidhja74-97
25/04/26ABeselidhja71-93
18/04/26ASkenderbeu90-76
15/04/26HSkenderbeu84-76
11/04/26HBeselidhja80-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Skenderbeu
Superliga 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW60%
HomeL0%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games514
Win %60%0%75%
Points / game93.088.094.2
Allowed / game80.297.076.0
Point differential+12.8-9.0+18.2
Avg total173.2185.0170.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%0%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Apolonia Fier
Superliga 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeLW50%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%50%100%
Points / game91.895.088.5
Allowed / game70.075.564.5
Point differential+21.8+19.5+24.0
Avg total161.8170.5153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%50%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Vllaznia660100%90.074.7+15.3
2 Kamza Basket440100%81.872.0+9.8
3 Teuta Durres54180%88.874.2+14.6
4 Beselidhja43175%102.876.0+26.8
5 Apolonia Fier43175%91.870.0+21.8
6 Skenderbeu53260%93.080.2+12.8
7 Tirana62433%86.587.8-1.3
8 Elbasani41325%81.295.8-14.5
9 Partizani Tirana61517%72.299.2-27.0
10 PBC Flamurtari6060%75.396.0-20.7
11 Pogradeci4040%68.896.2-27.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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