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SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Dec 2024
Tip-off: 19:15
Final 63-51
30-28 33-23
Position#58
Record7-2
FormWLWWW
Points / game88.3
Allowed / game71.8
vs
Position#230
Record5-3
FormLLWWL
Points / game63.0
Allowed / game62.2
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · SMU Mustangs v Virginia
17 Jan 2026
SMU 68
VIRG72
07 Dec 2024
SMU 63
VIRG51
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#2
L
92-101
92
101
-9
A20/03
NIT
Tarleton
#308
W
96-62
96
62
+34
H05/11
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
W
102-73
102
73
+29
H08/11
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#105
W
81-68
81
68
+13
H12/11
NCAA
Butler
#266
L
70-81
70
81
-11
A16/11
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#364
W
110-69
110
69
+41
H19/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#116
L
79-84
79
84
-5
H23/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
W
79-77
79
77
+2
A27/11
NCAA
Washington State
#148
W
77-60
77
60
+17
A28/11
NCAA
Alabama State
#156
W
101-72
101
72
+29
H04/12
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
49-40
0-0
43-61
0-0
51-28
0-0
45-34
0-0
51-29
0-0
51-44
0-0
41-35
0-0
40-33
0-0
33-36
0-0
37-45
0-0
51-46
0-0
59-23
0-0
38-33
0-0
41-51
0-0
45-32
0-0
34-45
0-0
27-31
0-0
50-29
0-0
49-39
0-0
52-33
163.4Avg total
88.7Scored
74.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)88.371.8160.1+16.678%
Season at home (6)94.871.3166.2+23.583%
Season away (3)75.372.7148.0+2.767%
Last 10 (10)88.774.7163.4+14.070%
Last 5 (5)89.272.4161.6+16.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)75.073.5148.5+1.538%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)82.770.7153.4+12.076%
This opponent (Virginia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#94
L
65-73 OT
65
73
-8
H16/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#52
L
42-67
42
67
-25
H20/03
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
65-56
65
56
+9
H07/11
NCAA
Coppin State
#351
W
62-45
62
45
+17
H12/11
NCAA
Villanova
#138
W
70-60
70
60
+10
A15/11
NCAA
Tennessee
#23
L
42-64
42
64
-22
A22/11
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#10
L
55-80
55
80
-25
H23/11
NCAA
Manhattan
#150
W
74-65
74
65
+9
H27/11
NCAA
Holy Cross
#284
W
67-41
67
41
+26
H29/11
NCAA
Florida
#6
L
69-87
69
87
-18
A05/12
NCAA
1H
2H
29-29
29-29
14-27
28-40
35-26
30-30
32-16
30-29
31-26
39-34
21-22
21-42
26-39
29-41
38-31
36-34
34-21
33-20
35-39
34-48
124.9Avg total
61.1Scored
63.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)63.062.2125.2+0.862%
Season at home (5)64.657.4122.0+7.280%
Season away (3)60.370.3130.7-10.033%
Last 10 (10)61.163.8124.9-2.750%
Last 5 (5)61.467.4128.8-6.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)54.066.2120.2-12.227%
vs Similar (12)64.662.2126.8+2.375%
vs Weaker (7)67.757.4125.1+10.386%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: +8.6+8.61st half: +1.9+1.92nd half2nd half: +5.4+5.42nd half: -3.8-3.8
-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: +8.6+8.61st half: +1.9+1.92nd half2nd half: +5.4+5.42nd half: -3.8-3.8
SMU MustangsVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#2
W
49-40
49
40
+9
A20/03
NIT
Tarleton
#308
W
51-28
51
28
+23
H05/11
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
W
51-29
51
29
+22
H08/11
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#105
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H12/11
NCAA
Butler
#266
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A16/11
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#364
W
51-46
51
46
+5
H19/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#116
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H23/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
W
45-32
45
32
+13
A27/11
NCAA
Washington State
#148
L
27-31
27
31
-4
A28/11
NCAA
Alabama State
#156
W
49-39
49
39
+10
H04/12
NCAA
78.4Avg total
43.5Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.733.672.3+5.170%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.232.572.8+7.888%-
Last 30 away (14)37.034.971.9+2.150%-
Last 10 (10)43.534.978.4+8.680%-
Last 5 (5)42.036.278.2+5.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)37.233.871.0+3.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)38.833.272.0+5.676%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#94
D
29-29
29
29
+0
H16/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#52
L
14-27
14
27
-13
H20/03
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
35-26
35
26
+9
H07/11
NCAA
Coppin State
#351
W
32-16
32
16
+16
H12/11
NCAA
Villanova
#138
W
31-26
31
26
+5
A15/11
NCAA
Tennessee
#23
L
21-22
21
22
-1
A22/11
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#10
L
26-39
26
39
-13
H23/11
NCAA
Manhattan
#150
W
38-31
38
31
+7
H27/11
NCAA
Holy Cross
#284
W
34-21
34
21
+13
H29/11
NCAA
Florida
#6
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A05/12
NCAA
57.1Avg total
29.5Scored
27.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.727.155.8+1.653%-
Last 30 at home (17)29.425.154.4+4.359%-
Last 30 away (13)27.929.857.7-1.846%-
Last 10 (10)29.527.657.1+1.950%-
Last 5 (5)30.830.461.2+0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)24.529.954.4-5.518%-
vs Similar (12)29.226.355.5+2.867%-
vs Weaker (7)34.724.058.7+10.786%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
SMU Mustangs wins
0
Virginia wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/12/24HAlabama State101-72
28/11/24AWashington State77-60
27/11/24ACalifornia Baptist79-77
23/11/24HMississippi St.79-84
19/11/24HPrairie View A&M110-69
16/11/24AButler70-81
12/11/24HNC Greensboro81-68
08/11/24HFlorida A&M102-73
05/11/24HTarleton96-62
20/03/24AIndiana State92-101
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/12/24AFlorida69-87
29/11/24HHoly Cross67-41
27/11/24HManhattan74-65
23/11/24HSt. John's (N.Y.)55-80
22/11/24ATennessee42-64
15/11/24AVillanova70-60
12/11/24HCoppin State62-45
07/11/24HCampbell65-56
20/03/24HColorado State42-67
16/03/24HNC State65-73 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW78%
HomeWWWLW83%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games963
Win %78%83%67%
Points / game88.394.875.3
Allowed / game71.871.372.7
Point differential+16.6+23.5+2.7
Avg total160.1166.2148.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%83%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virginia
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL62%
HomeWWLWW80%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games853
Win %62%80%33%
Points / game63.064.660.3
Allowed / game62.257.470.3
Point differential+0.8+7.2-10.0
Avg total125.2122.0130.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%40%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Clemson109190%77.062.4+14.6
2 Pittsburgh108280%80.268.1+12.1
3 SMU Mustangs97278%88.371.8+16.6
4 Florida State97278%78.766.3+12.3
5 Stanford97278%79.268.2+11.0
6 Duke86275%81.161.0+20.1
7 California86275%81.574.5+7.0
8 Wake Forest118373%67.464.8+2.5
9 Louisville85362%77.467.1+10.2
10 NC State85362%74.265.1+9.1
11 Virginia85362%63.062.2+0.8
12 Boston College106460%69.969.0+0.9
13 North Carolina95456%86.180.0+6.1
14 Notre Dame105550%74.270.5+3.7
15 Syracuse84450%77.579.4-1.9
16 Georgia Tech94544%76.774.0+2.7
17 Miami (FL)93633%79.373.3+6.0
18 Virginia Tech93633%67.670.6-3.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
SMU Mustangs303363
Virginia282351
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