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South Florida vs Charleston Southern Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 98-71
43-33 55-38
Position#108
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
South Florida 🏆
USA
Vs
85%
15%
■ SOUT 85%■ CHAR 15%
Pythia win probability
Projected 84-72
Projected total 156.2
Charleston Southern
USA
Position#331
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · South Florida v Charleston Southern
02 Nov 2026
SOUT98
CHAR71
02 Dec 2022
SOUT79
CHAR59
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

South Florida hosts Charleston Southern on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates the Bulls the clear favourite, giving them an 85% chance of victory largely because of their dominant 4-1 record in the last five games and their 84-point average projected score. South Florida is 4-1 in recent play, having beaten Wichita State 70-55, Charlotte 86-64 and lost only to Louisville 79-83, while Charleston Southern is 3-2 in their last five, with wins over UNC Asheville 92-75 and Winthrop 86-84 and a loss to Winthrop 81-86. The two teams have met once before, South Florida winning 79-59 in December 2022. The model projects a final score of 84-72, a total of 156.2 points, and a 24% probability that South Florida covers the -19.5 line; the over on the 158.5 total has a 44% chance, and the game has a 3% chance of overtime. South Florida's recent success and the decisive head-to-head advantage make the Bulls the clear favourite for this encounter.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

South Florida winWon
84.6%fair 1.18
Best odds1.05
Implied91.4%
Edge-6.8pp
Charleston Southern winLost
15.4%fair 6.51
Best odds15.00
Implied8.6%
Edge+6.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

South FloridaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wichita State
#71
W
66-58
66
58
+8
A12/02
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#164
W
83-81 OT
83
81
+2
A15/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
87-66
87
66
+21
H20/02
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
75-56
75
56
+19
A26/02
NCAA
Tulane
#173
W
90-62
90
62
+28
H01/03
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
96-89
96
89
+7
A06/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
83-60
83
60
+23
H08/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
86-64
86
64
+22
H14/03
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
W
70-55
70
55
+15
H15/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
79-83
79
83
-4
A19/03
NCAA
1H
2H
26-33
40-25
36-38
36-34
47-31
40-35
39-31
36-25
49-38
41-24
51-46
45-43
44-29
39-31
40-33
46-31
33-26
37-29
27-37
52-46
148.9Avg total
81.5Scored
67.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.567.4148.9+14.190%
Last 5 (5)82.870.2153.0+12.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)82.778.1160.9+4.657%
vs Weaker (22)85.476.0161.5+9.477%
Charleston SouthernUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Radford
#176
L
75-84
75
84
-9
H30/01
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
55-80
55
80
-25
A05/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
94-100 OT
94
100
-6
A07/02
NCAA
Presbyterian
#263
W
84-67
84
67
+17
H13/02
NCAA
Radford
#176
L
80-90
80
90
-10
A14/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
75-66
75
66
+9
H17/02
NCAA
Longwood
#202
L
96-107 OT
96
107
-11
H21/02
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
W
86-84
86
84
+2
H27/02
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
W
92-75
92
75
+17
A28/02
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
L
81-86
81
86
-5
A06/03
NCAA
1H
2H
32-44
43-40
25-47
30-33
40-39
51-52
40-37
44-30
30-50
50-40
40-28
35-38
40-28
42-54
42-36
44-48
33-39
59-36
40-37
41-49
165.7Avg total
81.8Scored
83.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.883.9165.7-2.140%
Last 5 (5)86.083.6169.6+2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)76.283.0159.2-6.820%
vs Similar (13)79.583.5163.0-4.123%
vs Weaker (10)86.674.9161.5+11.780%
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
56.1%
@ 1.50-6.3pp
Under 153.5
43.9%
@ 2.55+6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Over 158.5
Over 158.5
43.9%
@ 1.93-6.1pp
Under 158.5
56.1%
@ 1.90+6.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Over 163.5
Over 163.5
32.3%
@ 2.55-4.5pp
Under 163.5
67.7%
@ 1.47+4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

South Florida total 85Actual: South Florida over 85
Over 85
45.5%
Under 85
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
South Florida total 89 · main lineActual: South Florida over 89
Over 89
29.7%
@ 1.87-20.0pp
Under 89
70.3%
@ 1.85+20.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
South Florida total 92.5Actual: South Florida over 92.5
Over 92.5
no forecast
@ 2.42
Under 92.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.45
Charleston Southern total 65.5Actual: Charleston Southern over 65.5
Over 65.5
74.4%
@ 1.42+10.9pp
Under 65.5
25.6%
@ 2.47-10.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.47
Charleston Southern total 69.5 · main lineActual: Charleston Southern over 69.5
Over 69.5
60.2%
@ 1.94+11.3pp
Under 69.5
39.8%
@ 1.85-11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Charleston Southern total 73.5Actual: Charleston Southern under 73.5
Over 73.5
44.6%
@ 2.60+9.7pp
Under 73.5
55.4%
@ 1.39-9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.39

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread South Florida -22.5Actual: South Florida -22.5
SOUT -22.5
16.9%
@ 2.40-23.2pp
CHAR +22.5
83.1%
@ 1.57+23.2pp
Best 5 market prices
SOUT
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.22
CHAR
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52
Spread South Florida -19.5 · main lineActual: South Florida -19.5
SOUT -19.5
24.1%
@ 1.95-25.5pp
CHAR +19.5
75.9%
@ 1.88+25.5pp
Best 5 market prices
SOUT
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.90
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
CHAR
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.86
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread South Florida -16.5Actual: South Florida -16.5
SOUT -16.5
33.0%
@ 1.60-25.2pp
CHAR +16.5
67.0%
@ 2.22+25.2pp
Best 5 market prices
SOUT
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.57
CHAR
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.20

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +5.0+5.01st half: -2.3-2.32nd half2nd half: +8.9+8.92nd half: +1.9+1.9
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +5.0+5.01st half: -2.3-2.32nd half2nd half: +8.9+8.92nd half: +1.9+1.9
South FloridaCharleston Southern
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
South FloridaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wichita State
#71
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A12/02
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#164
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A15/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H20/02
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
39-31
39
31
+8
A26/02
NCAA
Tulane
#173
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H01/03
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
51-46
51
46
+5
A06/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
44-29
44
29
+15
H08/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H14/03
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H15/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
27-37
27
37
-10
A19/03
NCAA
73.4Avg total
39.2Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75
Last 30 (30)40.735.976.6+4.860%43%
Last 30 at home (18)41.434.776.1+6.867%33%
Last 30 away (12)39.537.877.2+1.850%58%
Last 10 (10)39.234.273.4+5.070%30%
Last 5 (5)39.034.273.2+4.880%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)39.334.173.4+5.157%29%
vs Weaker (22)40.236.776.9+3.559%45%
Charleston SouthernLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Radford
#176
L
32-44
32
44
-12
H30/01
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
25-47
25
47
-22
A05/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A07/02
NCAA
Presbyterian
#263
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H13/02
NCAA
Radford
#176
L
30-50
30
50
-20
A14/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
40-28
40
28
+12
H17/02
NCAA
Longwood
#202
W
40-28
40
28
+12
H21/02
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H27/02
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
L
33-39
33
39
-6
A28/02
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A06/03
NCAA
74.7Avg total
36.2Scored
38.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75
Last 30 (30)38.636.575.2+2.157%50%
Last 30 at home (14)44.433.477.8+10.986%64%
Last 30 away (16)33.639.272.9-5.631%38%
Last 10 (10)36.238.574.7-2.360%60%
Last 5 (5)39.033.672.6+5.480%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)36.639.676.2-3.040%60%
vs Similar (13)35.136.871.9-1.854%38%
vs Weaker (10)40.235.976.1+4.360%50%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: South Florida win
SOUT win
no forecast
@ 1.12
CHAR win
no forecast
@ 6.50
1st half Spread South Florida -11 · main lineActual: Charleston Southern +11
SOUT -11
no forecast
@ 1.86
CHAR +11
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Over/Under 75 · main lineActual: Over 75
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
South Florida 1st half total 43 · main linePush
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Charleston Southern 1st half total 32 · main lineActual: Charleston Southern over 32
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.75
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread South Florida -12.5Actual: Charleston Southern +12.5
SOUT -12.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
CHAR +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread South Florida -9.5Actual: South Florida -9.5
SOUT -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
CHAR +9.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.52
Under
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread South Florida -13.5Actual: Charleston Southern +13.5
SOUT -13.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
CHAR +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread South Florida -8.5Actual: South Florida -8.5
SOUT -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
CHAR +8.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Spread South Florida -14.5Actual: Charleston Southern +14.5
SOUT -14.5
no forecast
@ 2.57
CHAR +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread South Florida -7.5Actual: South Florida -7.5
SOUT -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
CHAR +7.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: South Florida (regulation)
SOUT
no forecast
@ 1.13
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
CHAR
no forecast
@ 8.20

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
SOUT win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
CHAR win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: SOUT leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Charleston Southern +1975.2%1.89
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.88		---+26.0ppLost
Charleston Southern +18.573.1%1.93
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Bet365
1.83		--+25.9ppLost
Charleston Southern +20.578.5%1.73
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.71
Bet365
1.68		-+25.6ppLost
Charleston Southern +19.575.9%1.84
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.86
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80		+25.5ppLost
Charleston Southern +17.570.1%2.06
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.05		--+25.5ppLost
Charleston Southern +21.580.9%1.63
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.58		--+25.3ppLost
Charleston Southern +1872.3%1.95
Bet365
1.95		----+25.1ppLost
Charleston Southern +2077.9%1.75
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.74		---+25.0ppLost
Charleston Southern +2180.4%1.62
Bet365
1.62		----+23.4ppLost
Charleston Southern +22.583.1%1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52		---+23.2ppLost
Charleston Southern +2282.7%1.54
Bet365
1.54		----+22.3ppLost
Charleston Southern +23.585.1%1.47
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44		---+22.3ppLost
Charleston Southern +2384.8%1.47
Bet365
1.47		----+21.4ppLost
Charleston Southern +24.587.0%1.41
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.37		---+21.3ppLost
Charleston Southern +2486.7%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+20.5ppLost
South Florida under 8970.3%1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83		---+20.0ppLost
South Florida under 89.571.3%1.80
1xBet
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78		--+19.8ppLost
South Florida under 90.574.7%1.62
Betano
1.62		----+18.8ppLost
South Florida under 91.577.8%1.53
Betano
1.53		----+18.6ppLost
Charleston Southern +2588.5%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+18.5ppLost
Charleston Southern over 66.571.1%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+11.5ppWon
Charleston Southern over 65.574.4%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+10.9ppWon
Charleston Southern over 64.577.5%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+10.7ppWon
Under 16571.3%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+4.3ppLost
Under 165.571.9%1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36		---+4.1ppLost
Under 16673.4%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+3.9ppLost
Under 166.573.9%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+3.0ppLost
South Florida (regulation)82.8%1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathon Bet
1.02		---6.3ppWon
South Florida win84.6%1.03
Betano
1.05
WilliamHill
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathon Bet
1.01		-6.8ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
South Florida wins
0
Charleston Southern wins
DateGameScore
03/12/22South Florida v Charleston Southern79-59
South Floridalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/03/26ALouisville79-83
15/03/26HWichita State70-55
14/03/26HCharlotte86-64
08/03/26HCharlotte83-60
06/03/26AMemphis96-89
01/03/26HTulane90-62
26/02/26ARice75-56
20/02/26HMemphis87-66
15/02/26AFlorida Atlantic83-81 OT
12/02/26AWichita State66-58
Charleston Southernlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/26AWinthrop81-86
28/02/26AUNC Asheville92-75
27/02/26HWinthrop86-84
21/02/26HLongwood96-107 OT
17/02/26HGardner Webb75-66
14/02/26ARadford80-90
13/02/26HPresbyterian84-67
07/02/26AUSC Upstate94-100 OT
05/02/26AHigh Point55-80
30/01/26HRadford75-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

South Florida
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 158.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Charleston Southern
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 158.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

American Conference conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Rice110100%100.055.0+45.0
2 Temple110100%68.056.0+12.0
3 UAB1010%78.099.0-21.0
4 UTSA Roadrunners1010%74.095.0-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big South conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 High Point110100%72.057.0+15.0
2 Winthrop1010%98.0103.0-5.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
South Florida435598
Charleston Southern333871
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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