South Florida hosts the Saint Josephs Hawks on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names South Florida the clear favourite, rating them 95% to win because of their 1-1 record, 89.0 points per game and 76.5 allowed, and a 1-0 home record with 98.0 points per game and 71.0 allowed; Saint Josephs, meanwhile, are undefeated 2-0, averaging 74.5 points and allowing 65.0, and have a 4-1 last-five record. South Florida's last five games include a 98-71 home win over Charleston Southern, an 80-82 loss to DePaul away, and a 79-83 loss to Louisville away, while Saint Josephs' recent results feature a 67-57 home win over Lafayette, an 82-73 home win over Longwood, and a 64-77 loss to VCU Rams away. The teams have met once before, with South Florida winning 75-62 in 2022. Pythia projects a 86-68 score, 153.8 total points, a 95% chance of a South Florida win and a 5% chance for Saint Josephs, a 86% probability that South Florida covers the -7.0 line, a 55% chance of the over on the 151.5 total, and a 1% chance of overtime, with the Hawks' last meeting a 75-62 victory for South Florida.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
South Florida winLost
94.5%fair 1.06
Best odds1.34
Implied74.5%
Edge+20.0pp
Saint Josephs Hawks winWon
5.5%fair 18.18
Best odds3.76
Implied25.5%
Edge-20.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 22:27 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (South Florida) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145Actual: Over 145
Over 145
70.9%
@ 1.38+4.0pp
Under 145
29.1%
@ 2.80-4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.38
Under
Bet365
2.80
Over/Under 150 · main lineActual: Over 150
Over 150
59.2%
@ 1.93+9.8pp
Under 150
40.8%
@ 2.05-9.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.78
Bet365
1.71
Under
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.81
Over/Under 155Actual: Over 155
Over 155
46.6%
@ 2.30+6.4pp
Under 155
53.4%
@ 1.64-6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.30
Under
Marathon Be
1.64
Bet365
1.55
📊 3. Team Totals
South Florida total 75Actual: South Florida over 75
Over 75
88.0%
Under 75
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
South Florida total 79 · main lineActual: South Florida over 79
Over 79
77.6%
@ 1.86+27.6pp
Under 79
22.4%
@ 1.85-27.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
South Florida total 83Actual: South Florida under 83
Over 83
63.3%
Under 83
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saint Josephs Hawks total 68Actual: Saint Josephs Hawks over 68
Over 68
47.7%
Under 68
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saint Josephs Hawks total 72 · main lineActual: Saint Josephs Hawks over 72
Over 72
31.8%
@ 1.87-18.2pp
Under 72
68.2%
@ 1.86+18.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Saint Josephs Hawks total 76Actual: Saint Josephs Hawks over 76
Over 76
18.9%
Under 76
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread South Florida -10.5Actual: Saint Josephs Hawks +10.5
SOUT -10.5
76.6%
@ 2.41+37.1pp
SAIN +10.5
23.4%
@ 1.57-37.1pp
Best 5 market prices
SOUT
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
SAIN
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
Spread South Florida -7.5 · main lineActual: Saint Josephs Hawks +7.5
SOUT -7.5
83.9%
@ 1.95+34.7pp
SAIN +7.5
16.1%
@ 1.90-34.7pp
Best 5 market prices
SOUT
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.91
1xBet
1.91
SAIN
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.82
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Spread South Florida -4.5Actual: Saint Josephs Hawks +4.5
SOUT -4.5
89.6%
@ 1.57+30.8pp
SAIN +4.5
10.4%
@ 2.25-30.8pp
Best 5 market prices
SOUT
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
SAIN
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
South FloridaSaint Josephs Hawks
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
South FloridaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis
#277
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H20/02
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
39-31
39
31
+8
A26/02
NCAA
Tulane
#173
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H01/03
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
51-46
51
46
+5
A06/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
44-29
44
29
+15
H08/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H14/03
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H15/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
27-37
27
37
-10
A19/03
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#277
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H03/11
NCAA
DePaul
#68
L
35-50
35
50
-15
A06/11
NCAA
76.2Avg total
40.8Scored
35.4Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 71
Last 30 (30)
40.7
36.0
76.7
+4.7
60%
73%
Last 30 at home (18)
42.0
34.5
76.5
+7.5
72%
78%
Last 30 away (12)
38.7
38.2
76.9
+0.4
42%
67%
Last 10 (10)
40.8
35.4
76.2
+5.4
80%
70%
Last 5 (5)
35.6
35.8
71.4
-0.2
60%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
35.0
50.0
85.0
-15.0
0%
100%
vs Similar ◀ (6)
40.3
33.8
74.2
+6.5
67%
67%
vs Weaker (22)
40.1
36.2
76.3
+3.9
59%
73%
This opponent (Saint Josephs Hawks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (South Florida) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: South Florida win
SOUT win
no forecast
@ 1.53
SAIN win
no forecast
@ 2.50
2nd half Spread South Florida -3.5 · main lineActual: Saint Josephs Hawks +3.5
SOUT -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
SAIN +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
South Florida 2nd half total 41.5 · main lineActual: South Florida over 41.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Saint Josephs Hawks 2nd half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Saint Josephs Hawks over 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half Spread South Florida -2.5Actual: Saint Josephs Hawks +2.5
SOUT -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
SAIN +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Saint Josephs Hawks (regulation)
SOUT
no forecast
@ 1.57
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
SAIN
no forecast
@ 2.55
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
South Florida -12
73.0%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+40.0pp
Lost
South Florida -11
75.9%
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
-
+39.3pp
Lost
South Florida -11.5
73.8%
2.65
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.62
-
-
-
+38.9pp
Lost
South Florida -12.5
70.8%
2.88
Betano
2.90
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
+38.7pp
Lost
South Florida -9
81.2%
2.19
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
2.12
-
-
-
+38.6pp
Lost
South Florida -9.5
79.2%
2.27
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.22
-
-
+38.5pp
Lost
South Florida -10
78.6%
2.33
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
2.32
-
-
-
+37.4pp
Lost
South Florida -8.5
81.6%
2.03
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.05
SBO
1.96
BetVictor
1.85
+37.2pp
Lost
South Florida -10.5
76.6%
2.40
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
+37.1pp
Lost
South Florida -8
83.5%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.96
SBO
1.88
-
+36.8pp
Lost
South Florida -7.5
83.9%
1.92
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
+34.7pp
Lost
South Florida -7
85.7%
1.83
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.75
+33.8pp
Lost
South Florida -6.5
86.0%
1.81
Bet365
1.87
Betano
1.83
SBO
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
+32.1pp
Lost
South Florida -6
87.6%
1.74
1xBet
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.76
SBO
1.75
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
+31.6pp
Lost
South Florida -5
89.4%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+31.5pp
Lost
South Florida -4.5
89.6%
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+30.8pp
Lost
South Florida -4
91.0%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Lost
South Florida over 78
80.6%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+30.1pp
Won
South Florida -5.5
87.8%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
-
+30.1pp
Lost
South Florida over 77.5
81.2%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.84
BetVictor
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.72
+29.9pp
Won
South Florida over 76.5
83.8%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+29.8pp
Won
South Florida over 78.5
78.3%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
+29.7pp
Won
South Florida -3.5
91.1%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+29.1pp
Lost
South Florida -3
92.2%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+28.0pp
Lost
South Florida over 79
77.6%
1.85
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+27.6pp
Won
South Florida -2.5
92.3%
1.42
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Lost
South Florida over 79.5
75.3%
1.90
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
+27.2pp
Won
South Florida (regulation)
93.6%
1.35
1xBet
1.36
Marathon Bet
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
+26.9pp
Lost
South Florida over 80.5
71.9%
2.19
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.07
-
-
+26.7pp
Lost
South Florida -2
93.6%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
South Florida -1.5
93.7%
1.35
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Lost
South Florida over 80
74.4%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Push
South Florida over 75.5
86.1%
1.48
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Won
South Florida -1
94.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Lost
South Florida over 74.5
88.2%
1.40
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.35
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
South Florida over 73.5
90.1%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
South Florida +1.5
95.1%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Lost
South Florida over 72.5
91.7%
1.28
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
South Florida win
94.5%
1.31
1xBet
1.34
Marathon Bet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
+20.0pp
Lost
South Florida +2.5
95.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Lost
South Florida over 71.5
93.1%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
South Florida over 70.5
94.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 73.5
72.7%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks under 74.5
75.9%
1.52
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Lost
South Florida over 69.5
95.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 75.5
78.9%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks under 76.5
81.6%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks under 77.5
84.0%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+13.1pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks under 79.5
88.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
South Florida +7.5
98.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks under 80.5
90.0%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks under 81.5
91.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Lost
Saint Josephs Hawks under 82.5
92.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Lost
South Florida +12.5
99.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Over 142.5
75.6%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.7%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Over 141.5
77.5%
1.30
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Over 144.5
71.6%
1.41
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Over 143.5
73.6%
1.36
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Over 145
70.9%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Over 144
73.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Over 126.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
91.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Over 136.5
85.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 176.5
92.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 53.5
91.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 54.5
90.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Under 171.5
86.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 55.5
88.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
South Florida under 99.5
91.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
South Florida under 98.5
89.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 56.5
86.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 57.5
84.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Under 166.5
78.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
South Florida under 96.5
85.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.4pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 58.5
81.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 59.5
78.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
South Florida under 94.5
79.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 61.5
72.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Saint Josephs Hawks over 60.5
75.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
South Florida under 92.5
73.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.