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Spain vs Ukraine Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 02 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 78-64
16-9 12-12 24-22 26-21
Position#27
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game83.3
Allowed / game63.7
Spain 🏆
vs
Position#22
Record5-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game80.1
Allowed / game74.7
EuropeWorld CupRound 4· Palacio de los Deportes de Oviedo
Other2027
Meetings · Spain v Ukraine
02 Mar 2026
SPAI78
UKRA64
24 Feb 2022
SPAI88
UKRA74
02 Dec 2018
SPAI72
UKRA68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Spain winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ukraine winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSpain
Date
Competition
Latvia
#2
L
66-83
66
83
-17
no box
A20/02
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
W
59-52
59
52
+7
no box
H23/02
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
L
69-83
69
83
-14
59avg 74
A28/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
88-67
88
67
+21
87avg 74
H30/08
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
91-47
91
47
+44
97avg 74
H31/08
EuroBasket
Italy
#7
L
63-67
63
67
-4
53avg 74
A02/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
86-90
86
90
-4
74avg 74
H04/09
EuroBasket
Denmark
#79
W
74-64
74
64
+10
no box
A27/11
World Cup
Georgia
#31
W
90-61
90
61
+29
no box
H30/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#22
W
86-66
86
66
+20
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-20
17-21
16-22
16-20
11-11
11-14
20-15
17-12
17-20
18-17
14-20
20-26
24-16
20-14
28-17
16-20
19-9
22-8
29-12
21-18
18-10
18-20
11-19
16-18
20-31
15-19
28-18
23-22
25-23
20-10
15-14
14-17
19-22
28-11
23-13
20-15
17-21
15-12
33-14
21-19
145.2Avg total
77.2Scored
68.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)83.363.7147.0+19.7100%
Season at home (1)90.061.0151.0+29.0100%
Season away (2)80.065.0145.0+15.0100%
Last 10 (10)77.268.0145.2+9.260%
Last 5 (5)79.869.6149.4+10.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)67.672.0139.6-4.420%
vs Similar (7)78.176.4154.6+1.743%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)85.471.7157.1+13.789%
This opponent (Ukraine) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UkraineLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUkraine
Date
Competition
Israel
#5
L
75-88
75
88
-13
no box
A25/11
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#11
L
71-84
71
84
-13
no box
H21/02
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
W
88-60
88
60
+28
no box
A24/02
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#43
L
64-66
64
66
-2
no box
A06/08
World Cup
Slovakia
#69
W
80-71
80
71
+9
no box
H09/08
World Cup
Switzerland
#43
W
73-64
73
64
+9
no box
H16/08
World Cup
Slovakia
#69
W
98-86
98
86
+12
no box
A20/08
World Cup
Georgia
#31
W
92-79
92
79
+13
no box
A27/11
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
88-71
88
71
+17
no box
H30/11
World Cup
Spain
#27
L
66-86
66
86
-20
no box
H27/02
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-11
24-18
17-27
18-32
22-24
14-21
19-21
16-18
24-17
17-15
30-18
17-10
14-18
13-12
20-15
17-21
24-24
21-14
17-14
18-19
28-12
13-19
21-24
11-9
17-20
32-20
20-27
29-19
15-23
28-25
23-13
26-18
18-20
28-16
27-10
15-25
21-17
12-15
14-33
19-21
155.0Avg total
79.5Scored
75.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)80.174.7154.9+5.471%
Season at home (4)76.873.0149.8+3.875%
Season away (3)84.777.0161.7+7.767%
Last 10 (10)79.575.5155.0+4.060%
Last 5 (5)83.477.2160.6+6.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)74.881.7156.4-6.911%
vs Similar (8)82.284.1166.4-1.938%
vs Weaker (13)81.871.3153.2+10.585%
This opponent (Spain) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +3.8+3.8Q2: +2.7+2.7Q3Q3: +5.3+5.3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -0.6-0.6
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +3.8+3.8Q2: +2.7+2.7Q3Q3: +5.3+5.3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -0.6-0.6
SpainUkraine
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SpainLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Latvia
#2
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A20/02
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
L
22-25
22
25
-3
H23/02
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A28/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H30/08
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
41-17
41
17
+24
H31/08
EuroBasket
Italy
#7
W
36-30
36
30
+6
A02/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
35-50
35
50
-15
H04/09
EuroBasket
Denmark
#79
W
45-33
45
33
+12
A27/11
World Cup
Georgia
#31
W
47-33
47
33
+14
H30/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#22
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A27/02
World Cup
70.0Avg total
37.1Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.934.974.7+5.063%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.135.675.7+4.456%-
Last 30 away (14)39.634.073.6+5.671%-
Last 10 (10)37.132.970.0+4.250%-
Last 5 (5)39.035.874.8+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)33.432.666.0+0.840%-
vs Similar (7)38.734.373.0+4.486%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)42.135.777.8+6.461%-
This opponent (Ukraine) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UkraineLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Israel
#5
W
40-29
40
29
+11
A25/11
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#11
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H21/02
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A24/02
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#43
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A06/08
World Cup
Slovakia
#69
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H09/08
World Cup
Switzerland
#43
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H16/08
World Cup
Slovakia
#69
W
49-40
49
40
+9
A20/08
World Cup
Georgia
#31
L
43-48
43
48
-5
A27/11
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H30/11
World Cup
Spain
#27
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H27/02
World Cup
76.2Avg total
40.1Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.237.377.5+2.863%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.136.775.8+2.469%-
Last 30 away (14)41.438.179.5+3.457%-
Last 10 (10)40.136.176.2+4.070%-
Last 5 (5)42.437.479.8+5.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)36.338.374.7-2.056%-
vs Similar (8)42.138.280.4+3.962%-
vs Weaker (13)41.636.177.7+5.569%-
This opponent (Spain) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Spaintheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Spain: 72.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 19% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.116.7
49.0%
-33.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.88.3
29.9%
-24.9
🏀 Free throws21.114.0
66.4%
-14.0
They take 61.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Ukrainetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ukraine: 75.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.7 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.319.3
54.7%
-38.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.07.7
36.5%
-23.0
🏀 Free throws20.013.5
67.5%
-13.5
They take 56.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/6 games with a box score before 02 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Spain
WWWLLWWLWL
Ukraine
LWWWWWLWLL
#27
League position
#22
+5.9
Net rating
-6.3
99.0
Offensive rating
104.6
93.1
Defensive rating
110.8
47.1%
Effective FG%
54.7%
45.3%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
17.9%
Turnover %
21.7%
28.6%
Off. rebound %
28.0%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.36
29.9%
3-point %
36.5%
74.0%
Assist %
75.9%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Spain   ■ Ukraine
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Spain wins
1
Ukraine wins
DateGameScore
27/02/26Ukraine v Spain66-86
07/07/22Ukraine v Spain76-77
24/02/22Spain v Ukraine88-74
02/12/18Spain v Ukraine72-68
14/09/18Ukraine v Spain76-65
Spainlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26AUkraine86-66
30/11/25HGeorgia90-61
27/11/25ADenmark74-64
04/09/25HGreece86-90
02/09/25AItaly63-67
31/08/25HCyprus91-47
30/08/25HBosnia & Herzegovina88-67
28/08/25AGeorgia69-83
23/02/25HBelgium59-52
20/02/25ALatvia66-83
Ukrainelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26HSpain66-86
30/11/25HDenmark88-71
27/11/25AGeorgia92-79
20/08/25ASlovakia98-86
16/08/25HSwitzerland73-64
09/08/25HSlovakia80-71
06/08/25ASwitzerland64-66
24/02/25APortugal88-60
21/02/25HSlovenia71-84
25/11/24AIsrael75-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Spain
World Cup 2027
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game83.390.080.0
Allowed / game63.761.065.0
Point differential+19.7+29.0+15.0
Avg total147.0151.0145.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ukraine
World Cup 2027
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL71%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %71%75%67%
Points / game80.176.884.7
Allowed / game74.773.077.0
Point differential+5.4+3.8+7.7
Avg total154.9149.8161.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%25%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Jordan330100%82.355.7+26.7
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Ivory Coast330100%95.071.0+24.0
4 Spain330100%83.363.7+19.7
5 Uruguay330100%79.362.0+17.3
6 Canada440100%99.582.2+17.2
7 Turkey440100%88.573.8+14.8
8 Brazil330100%84.770.7+14.0
9 Australia440100%87.275.5+11.8
10 Guinea330100%72.360.7+11.7
11 Poland440100%87.878.8+9.0
12 Mali330100%83.376.3+7.0
13 Colombia220100%83.078.0+5.0
14 Croatia87188%93.672.2+21.4
15 Slovenia43175%93.080.0+13.0
16 Greece43175%77.866.0+11.8
17 Italy43175%83.873.5+10.2
18 Germany43175%87.878.8+9.0
19 Japan43175%82.074.0+8.0
20 France43175%81.874.0+7.8
21 Finland43175%78.576.5+2.0
22 Ukraine75271%80.174.7+5.4
23 Argentina32167%76.359.3+17.0
24 South Sudan32167%81.364.7+16.7
25 Senegal32167%84.770.7+14.0
26 Angola32167%84.073.3+10.7
27 Dominican Republic32167%88.778.3+10.3
28 Iran32167%80.070.7+9.3
29 Lebanon32167%84.074.7+9.3
30 Qatar32167%86.377.0+9.3
31 Mexico32167%91.084.0+7.0
32 Saudi Arabia32167%73.367.3+6.0
33 Tunisia32167%74.770.0+4.7
34 Cameroon32167%71.369.7+1.7
35 Cape Verde32167%82.086.7-4.7
36 Netherlands85362%81.276.1+5.1
37 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
38 Romania127558%78.278.4-0.2
39 Switzerland148657%73.269.5+3.7
40 Israel42250%79.270.5+8.8
41 Philippines42250%78.569.8+8.8
42 Bosnia & Herzegovina42250%79.571.8+7.8
43 New Zealand42250%81.074.0+7.0
44 Portugal42250%86.580.2+6.2
45 Austria126650%84.979.5+5.4
46 Lithuania42250%88.584.5+4.0
47 Hungary84450%80.977.6+3.2
48 Georgia42250%79.578.2+1.2
49 South Korea42250%76.876.8+0.0
50 Estonia42250%85.886.5-0.8
51 China42250%84.885.8-1.0
52 Serbia42250%82.083.5-1.5
53 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
54 Jamaica42250%91.594.5-3.0
55 Iceland42250%83.287.5-4.2
56 Czech Republic42250%84.289.2-5.0
57 Montenegro42250%68.575.5-7.0
58 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
59 Egypt31233%80.073.7+6.3
60 Nigeria31233%69.375.3-6.0
61 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
62 Panama31233%75.386.0-10.7
63 D.R. Congo31233%67.383.3-16.0
64 Syria31233%61.781.3-19.7
65 Latvia41325%79.582.5-3.0
66 Puerto Rico41325%84.587.8-3.2
67 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
68 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
69 Chinese Taipei41325%76.883.8-7.0
70 Sweden41325%79.887.0-7.2
71 Denmark82625%72.682.5-9.9
72 Great Britain41325%77.587.5-10.0
73 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
74 Bahamas41325%82.093.0-11.0
75 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
76 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
77 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
78 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
79 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
80 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
81 Venezuela2020%81.087.0-6.0
82 Belgium4040%72.278.8-6.5
83 Rwanda3030%68.378.7-10.3
84 Chile3030%68.782.0-13.3
85 Libya3030%66.780.3-13.7
86 Iraq3030%69.786.0-16.3
87 Madagascar3030%73.095.0-22.0
88 Cuba3030%66.089.7-23.7
89 Uganda3030%64.388.3-24.0
90 India3030%60.385.0-24.7
91 Nicaragua2020%66.592.5-26.0
92 Guam4040%66.093.5-27.5
93 Cyprus4040%58.090.0-32.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Spain1612242678
Ukraine912222164
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