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St. John's (N.Y.) vs Colgate Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 90-66
Projected total 155.3
Final 90-59
49-32 41-27
Position#30
Record2-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game91.0
Allowed / game64.0
St. John's (N.Y.) 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ ST. 98%■ COLG 2%
Pythia win probability
Colgate
USA
Position#363
Record0-2
FormLWLLL
Points / game75.0
Allowed / game83.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · St. John's (N.Y.) v Colgate
11 Nov 2026
ST. 90
COLG59
12 Dec 2021
ST. 82
COLG64
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

St. John's (N.Y.) faces Colgate on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names St. John's (N.Y.) the clear favourite, assigning it a 98% chance of winning and projecting a 90-66 scoreline. St. John's (N.Y.) is undefeated in its first two games, 2-0, averaging 91.0 points scored and allowing 64.0, while Colgate is 0-2, averaging 75.0 points and conceding 83.5; the former's home record is also 2-0 with the same averages, and its last five games show four wins and one loss, including a 104-65 victory over Iona at home on 8 November and a 78-63 win over Monmouth on 2 November. Colgate's last five games include one win and four losses, with recent defeats to Drexel, Washington and Lehigh. Their head-to-head record stands at 1-1, the most recent meeting ending 94-50 in Colgate's favour on 6 December 2025. Pythia gives St. John's (N.Y.) a 98% win probability, Colgate 2%, projects 155.3 total points, and assigns a 48% probability that the over on the 156.0 line will be hit, with a 1% chance of overtime. The game is set to be a decisive showcase of St. John's (N.Y.) early season dominance.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

St. John's (N.Y.) winWon
97.7%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied94.8%
Edge+2.9pp
Colgate winLost
2.3%fair 44.07
Best odds65.00
Implied5.2%
Edge-2.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

St. John's (N.Y.)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgetown
#225
W
72-69
72
69
+3
H04/03
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
W
72-65
72
65
+7
A07/03
NCAA
Providence
#246
W
85-72
85
72
+13
H12/03
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
W
78-68
78
68
+10
H13/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
72-52
72
52
+20
H14/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
79-53
79
53
+26
H20/03
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
67-65
67
65
+2
A22/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A27/03
NCAA
Monmouth
#334
W
78-63
78
63
+15
H02/11
NCAA
Iona
#232
W
104-65
104
65
+39
H08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-34
46-35
30-27
42-38
48-27
37-45
38-30
40-38
40-27
32-25
47-28
32-25
34-26
33-39
40-39
35-41
45-29
33-34
54-23
50-42
143.4Avg total
78.2Scored
65.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)91.064.0155.0+27.0100%
Season at home (2)91.064.0155.0+27.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.265.2143.4+13.090%
Last 5 (5)80.665.2145.8+15.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)75.080.0155.0-5.00%
vs Similar (11)72.365.5137.8+6.782%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)83.769.3152.9+14.494%
This opponent (Colgate) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ColgateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Holy Cross
#321
W
74-70
74
70
+4
A11/02
NCAA
Navy
#24
L
80-84 OT
80
84
-4
H14/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
58-85
58
85
-27
A16/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
W
101-98 OT
101
98
+3
H21/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
L
69-70
69
70
-1
H26/02
NCAA
Navy
#24
L
69-85
69
85
-16
A28/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
W
90-77
90
77
+13
H06/03
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
69-76
69
76
-7
A08/03
NCAA
Washington
#80
L
76-90
76
90
-14
A03/11
NCAA
Drexel
#291
L
74-77
74
77
-3
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
33-23
41-47
28-40
49-37
23-36
35-49
46-34
36-48
25-31
44-39
40-47
29-38
46-39
44-38
30-33
39-43
38-43
38-47
25-29
49-48
157.2Avg total
76.0Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)75.083.5158.5-8.50%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)75.083.5158.5-8.50%
Last 10 (10)76.081.2157.2-5.230%
Last 5 (5)75.681.0156.6-5.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)75.579.3154.8-3.817%
vs Similar (12)72.676.2148.8-3.633%
vs Weaker (12)82.271.2153.5+11.092%
This opponent (St. John's (N.Y.)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
59.2%
@ 1.50-2.0pp
Under 151.5
40.8%
@ 2.37+2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 156.5 · main lineActual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
46.9%
@ 1.90-3.1pp
Under 156.5
53.1%
@ 2.00+3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Marathon Be
2.00
SBO
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Over/Under 161.5Actual: Under 161.5
Over 161.5
34.9%
@ 2.47-2.5pp
Under 161.5
65.1%
@ 1.47+2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

St. John's (N.Y.) total 87.5Actual: St. John's (N.Y.) over 87.5
Over 87.5
58.8%
@ 1.36-10.2pp
Under 87.5
41.2%
@ 3.25+10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.25
Betano
2.70
St. John's (N.Y.) total 91.5 · main lineActual: St. John's (N.Y.) under 91.5
Over 91.5
42.7%
@ 1.88-7.3pp
Under 91.5
57.3%
@ 1.93+7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
St. John's (N.Y.) total 95.5Actual: St. John's (N.Y.) under 95.5
Over 95.5
27.8%
@ 2.40-19.5pp
Under 95.5
72.2%
@ 1.79+19.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.25
Pinnacle
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.45
Colgate total 60Actual: Colgate under 60
Over 60
71.9%
Under 60
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colgate total 64 · main lineActual: Colgate under 64
Over 64
56.4%
@ 1.85+6.3pp
Under 64
43.6%
@ 1.86-6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Colgate total 68Actual: Colgate under 68
Over 68
39.8%
Under 68
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread St. John's (N.Y.) -31.5Actual: Colgate +31.5
ST. -31.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
COLG +31.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
ST.
Betano
2.37
COLG
Betano
1.50
Spread St. John's (N.Y.) -28.5 · main lineActual: St. John's (N.Y.) -28.5
ST. -28.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
COLG +28.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
ST.
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
SBO
1.78
Marathon Be
1.70
COLG
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
Spread St. John's (N.Y.) -25.5Actual: St. John's (N.Y.) -25.5
ST. -25.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
COLG +25.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
Best 5 market prices
ST.
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.60
COLG
Betano
2.18
1xBet
1.91

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +11.2+11.21st half: -2.1-2.12nd half2nd half: +1.8+1.82nd half: -3.0-3.0
-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +11.2+11.21st half: -2.1-2.12nd half2nd half: +1.8+1.82nd half: -3.0-3.0
St. John's (N.Y.)Colgate
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
St. John's (N.Y.)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgetown
#225
L
26-34
26
34
-8
H04/03
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
W
30-27
30
27
+3
A07/03
NCAA
Providence
#246
W
48-27
48
27
+21
H12/03
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H13/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
40-27
40
27
+13
H14/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H20/03
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
34-26
34
26
+8
A22/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A27/03
NCAA
Monmouth
#334
W
45-29
45
29
+16
H02/11
NCAA
Iona
#232
W
54-23
54
23
+31
H08/11
NCAA
69.2Avg total
40.2Scored
29.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)39.832.672.5+7.277%40%
Last 30 at home (17)41.630.772.3+10.976%35%
Last 30 away (13)37.535.272.7+2.477%46%
Last 10 (10)40.229.069.2+11.290%40%
Last 5 (5)44.029.073.0+15.0100%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)40.039.079.0+1.0100%100%
vs Similar (11)36.530.867.4+5.773%18%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)41.833.475.2+8.478%50%
This opponent (Colgate) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ColgateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Holy Cross
#321
W
33-23
33
23
+10
A11/02
NCAA
Navy
#24
L
28-40
28
40
-12
H14/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
23-36
23
36
-13
A16/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H21/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
L
25-31
25
31
-6
H26/02
NCAA
Navy
#24
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A28/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H06/03
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
30-33
30
33
-3
A08/03
NCAA
Washington
#80
L
38-43
38
43
-5
A03/11
NCAA
Drexel
#291
L
25-29
25
29
-4
A07/11
NCAA
68.9Avg total
33.4Scored
35.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)35.133.768.7+1.453%30%
Last 30 at home (14)35.732.568.2+3.257%29%
Last 30 away (16)34.534.769.2-0.250%31%
Last 10 (10)33.435.568.9-2.130%40%
Last 5 (5)35.838.274.0-2.420%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)34.738.373.0-3.717%33%
vs Similar (12)32.433.666.0-1.233%25%
vs Weaker (12)37.931.469.3+6.592%33%
This opponent (St. John's (N.Y.)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: St. John's (N.Y.) win
ST. win
no forecast
@ 1.03
COLG win
no forecast
@ 13.00
1st half Spread St. John's (N.Y.) -16 · main lineActual: St. John's (N.Y.) -16
ST. -16
no forecast
@ 1.88
COLG +16
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 74.5 · main lineActual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.98
St. John's (N.Y.) 1st half total 45.5 · main lineActual: St. John's (N.Y.) over 45.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Colgate 1st half total 30 · main lineActual: Colgate over 30
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 76Actual: Over 76
Over
no forecast
@ 1.96
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread St. John's (N.Y.) -17Push
ST. -17
no forecast
@ 1.88
COLG +17
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Spread St. John's (N.Y.) -15Actual: St. John's (N.Y.) -15
ST. -15
no forecast
@ 1.87
COLG +15
no forecast
@ 1.98
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.55
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.38
Under
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread St. John's (N.Y.) -14Actual: St. John's (N.Y.) -14
ST. -14
no forecast
@ 1.87
COLG +14
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Over 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.80
1st half Spread St. John's (N.Y.) -18.5Actual: Colgate +18.5
ST. -18.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
COLG +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Over 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.67
Under
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half Spread St. John's (N.Y.) -19.5Actual: Colgate +19.5
ST. -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.57
COLG +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: St. John's (N.Y.) (regulation)
ST.
no forecast
@ 1.04
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
COLG
no forecast
@ 13.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
ST. win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
COLG win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ST. leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
St. John's (N.Y.) under 95.572.2%1.60
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.45		--+19.5ppWon
St. John's (N.Y.) under 99.583.9%1.33
1xBet
1.33		----+14.6ppWon
St. John's (N.Y.) under 96.575.5%1.48
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.38		---+13.1ppWon
St. John's (N.Y.) under 98.581.3%1.33
1xBet
1.33		----+12.1ppWon
St. John's (N.Y.) under 97.578.5%1.31
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30		---+8.5ppWon
St. John's (N.Y.) under 100.586.2%1.17
1xBet
1.17		----+6.9ppWon
Colgate over 59.572.9%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+5.8ppLost
St. John's (N.Y.) (regulation)97.3%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+5.5ppWon
Colgate over 57.579.1%1.22
1xBet
1.22		----+3.6ppWon
St. John's (N.Y.) win97.7%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+2.9ppWon
Colgate over 58.576.1%1.25
1xBet
1.25		----+2.4ppWon
Colgate over 54.586.7%1.11
1xBet
1.11		----+2.3ppWon
Colgate over 55.584.4%1.12
1xBet
1.12		----+1.3ppWon
Colgate under 73.578.8%1.12
1xBet
1.12		-----4.3ppWon
St. John's (N.Y.) over 82.576.7%1.14
1xBet
1.14		-----4.7ppWon
Colgate under 72.575.8%1.14
1xBet
1.14		-----5.6ppWon
St. John's (N.Y.) over 83.573.5%1.14
1xBet
1.14		-----7.9ppWon
St. John's (N.Y.) over 84.570.1%1.14
1xBet
1.14		-----11.3ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
St. John's (N.Y.) wins
1
Colgate wins
DateGameScore
06/12/25Colgate v St. John's (N.Y.)94-50
12/12/21St. John's (N.Y.) v Colgate82-64
St. John's (N.Y.)last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HIona104-65
02/11/26HMonmouth78-63
27/03/26ADuke75-80
22/03/26AKansas67-65
20/03/26HNorthern Iowa79-53
14/03/26HUconn72-52
13/03/26HSeton Hall78-68
12/03/26HProvidence85-72
07/03/26ASeton Hall72-65
04/03/26HGeorgetown72-69
Colgatelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26ADrexel74-77
03/11/26AWashington76-90
08/03/26ALehigh69-76
06/03/26HLoyola Maryland90-77
28/02/26ANavy69-85
26/02/26HLafayette69-70
21/02/26HLoyola Maryland101-98 OT
16/02/26ABoston University58-85
14/02/26HNavy80-84 OT
11/02/26AHoly Cross74-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

St. John's (N.Y.)
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game91.091.0-
Allowed / game64.064.0-
Point differential+27.0+27.0-
Avg total155.0155.0-
Over 156.550%50%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Colgate
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
Home--
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %0%-0%
Points / game75.0-75.0
Allowed / game83.5-83.5
Point differential-8.5--8.5
Avg total158.5-158.5
Over 156.550%-50%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Marquette220100%85.537.5+48.0
2 Xavier330100%91.053.3+37.7
3 Uconn330100%84.754.7+30.0
4 St. John's (N.Y.)220100%91.064.0+27.0
5 DePaul330100%80.361.7+18.7
6 Georgetown330100%83.070.0+13.0
7 Seton Hall330100%67.054.7+12.3
8 Butler32167%92.075.0+17.0
9 Villanova32167%82.366.3+16.0
10 Providence32167%73.059.3+13.7
11 Creighton32167%80.368.3+12.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Patriot League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Navy43175%72.068.2+3.8
2 Boston University32167%73.374.7-1.3
3 Lafayette53260%79.864.4+15.4
4 Army31233%74.362.7+11.7
5 Loyola Maryland31233%73.770.7+3.0
6 Lehigh31233%64.373.7-9.3
7 Colgate2020%75.083.5-8.5
8 American University2020%63.080.5-17.5
9 Bucknell3030%63.391.0-27.7
10 Holy Cross2020%62.599.0-36.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
St. John's (N.Y.)494190
Colgate322759
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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