The Super League clash on 12 November 2026 pits Tambov against University-Ugra, with Tambov the model favourite and a projected 58% chance to win, while the odds for a Ugra victory sit at 42%. Tambov has gone 2-5 in all seven games this season, averaging 73.7 points and conceding 76.1, and sits 11th in the league; at home they are 2-1, 80.3 points for and 74.0 against, and have won two of their last five. Their recent outings include a 88-90 loss to Novosibirsk, a 67-78 defeat to Barnaul, and a 83-76 home win over Izhevsk. University-Ugra is 3-5 in eight games, 73.4 points scored and 81.9 allowed, positioned 10th; on the road they are 2-2, 69.5 points for and 75.5 against, and have also won two of their last five, highlighted by a 78-76 home win over Metallurg and a 69-67 away victory over Dynamo Grozny, but a 79-94 home loss to Chelyabinsk. Head-to-head, Ugra leads 6-4, most recently beating Tambov 103-78 on 12 February 2026. Pythia projects a final score of 80-77, with a total of 156.8 points; the home line is 1.0, with a 59% chance of covering, and the over/under line is 157.5, with a 48% probability of the over, while the chance of overtime is 5%. The game will hinge on Tambov's ability to outscore Ugra's defensive resilience.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tambov winWon
57.8%fair 1.73
Best odds1.91
Implied48.9%
Edge+8.9pp
University-Ugra winLost
42.2%fair 2.37
Best odds1.87
Implied51.1%
Edge-8.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 18:15 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Tambov) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
59.6%
@ 1.51
Under 152.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.51
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157.5 · main lineActual: Over 157.5
Over 157.5
47.6%
@ 1.88-2.1pp
Under 157.5
52.4%
@ 1.86+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
SBO
1.83
Marathon Be
1.80
1xBet
1.72
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Over 162.5
Over 162.5
35.9%
Under 162.5
64.1%
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
Marathon Be
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Tambov total 75Actual: Tambov over 75
Over 75
67.5%
Under 75
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tambov total 79 · main lineActual: Tambov over 79
Over 79
52.0%
@ 1.85+2.9pp
Under 79
48.0%
@ 1.81-2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.77
Under
Marathon Be
1.81
1xBet
1.68
Tambov total 83Actual: Tambov over 83
Over 83
36.1%
Under 83
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
University-Ugra total 74.5Actual: University-Ugra over 74.5
Over 74.5
60.4%
@ 1.39-2.6pp
Under 74.5
39.6%
@ 2.36+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.39
Under
1xBet
2.36
University-Ugra total 78.5 · main lineActual: University-Ugra under 78.5
Over 78.5
45.0%
@ 1.83-4.8pp
Under 78.5
55.0%
@ 1.83+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.73
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.71
University-Ugra total 82.5Actual: University-Ugra under 82.5
Over 82.5
30.6%
@ 2.40-5.9pp
Under 82.5
69.4%
@ 1.38+5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.38
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Tambov -2Actual: Tambov -2
TAMB -2
52.8%
@ 2.09+8.4pp
UNIV +2
47.2%
@ 1.68-8.4pp
Best 5 market prices
TAMB
Pinnacle
2.09
1xBet
2.02
Marathon Be
2.00
UNIV
Marathon Be
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Spread Tambov +1 · main lineActual: Tambov +1
TAMB +1
59.4%
@ 1.87+9.4pp
UNIV -1
40.6%
@ 1.92-9.4pp
Best 5 market prices
TAMB
Pinnacle
1.87
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.74
Marathon Be
1.72
UNIV
Marathon Be
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
SBO
1.85
Spread Tambov +4Actual: Tambov +4
TAMB +4
70.0%
@ 1.58+12.5pp
UNIV -4
30.0%
@ 2.14-12.5pp
Best 5 market prices
TAMB
Pinnacle
1.58
Marathon Be
1.50
UNIV
Pinnacle
2.14
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
TambovUniversity-Ugra
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Tambov +4
70.0%
1.54
Pinnacle
1.58
Marathon Bet
1.50
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Tambov +4.5
71.0%
1.46
Pinnacle
1.54
Marathon Bet
1.47
1xBet
1.36
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
University-Ugra under 84.5
75.8%
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
University-Ugra under 83.5
72.7%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Tambov +5.5
74.1%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Tambov over 73.5
72.0%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Tambov over 72.5
75.2%
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
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Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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