PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Tennessee Tech will host Wright State on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the visitors who are undefeated this season at 4-0 and have been scoring 91.2 points per game while allowing only 69.0, a stark contrast to Tennessee Tech's 2-2 record, 92.0 points per game and 90.0 points allowed, and a league position of 212 versus Wright State's 44; the home side has gone 2-0 at home, averaging 107.0 points and conceding 82.0, but has lost its last three outings, most recently 66-90 to Indiana, while the visitors have won four of five games, including a 90-66 win over Samford and a 97-71 victory at home against Florida Atlantic; the two teams have met once before, with Wright State winning 72-63 on 18 December 2021; the model gives Wright State a 56% chance of winning, Tennessee Tech a 44% chance, projects a final score of 81-82 and a total of 163.0 points, and assigns a 5% probability that the game will go into overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 92.0 | 90.0 | 182.0 | +2.0 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 107.0 | 82.0 | 189.0 | +25.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 77.0 | 98.0 | 175.0 | -21.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.2 | 76.9 | 154.1 | +0.3 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 88.2 | 89.8 | 178.0 | -1.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (16) | 72.6 | 84.1 | 156.7 | -11.6 | 31% |
| vs Similar (10) | 70.7 | 72.2 | 142.9 | -1.5 | 40% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 85.7 | 65.0 | 150.7 | +20.7 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 91.2 | 69.0 | 160.2 | +22.2 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 99.5 | 71.0 | 170.5 | +28.5 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 83.0 | 67.0 | 150.0 | +16.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 86.3 | 73.3 | 159.6 | +13.0 | 90% |
| Last 5 (5) | 87.6 | 71.6 | 159.2 | +16.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 74.5 | 82.5 | 157.0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (9) | 81.2 | 79.0 | 160.2 | +2.2 | 67% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (19) | 84.2 | 72.5 | 156.6 | +11.7 | 89% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.6 | 34.9 | 69.5 | -0.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 37.8 | 32.9 | 70.7 | +4.8 | 46% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 32.1 | 36.5 | 68.6 | -4.4 | 35% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.3 | 34.6 | 70.9 | +1.7 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.4 | 40.0 | 85.4 | +5.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (16) | 33.3 | 38.0 | 71.3 | -4.7 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 31.5 | 32.6 | 64.1 | -1.1 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 40.7 | 27.7 | 68.3 | +13.0 | 67% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.0 | 35.1 | 75.1 | +4.9 | 73% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 40.3 | 35.7 | 76.0 | +4.6 | 65% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 39.6 | 34.3 | 73.9 | +5.3 | 85% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.1 | 34.6 | 74.7 | +5.5 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.2 | 32.4 | 77.6 | +12.8 | 100% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 38.5 | 42.0 | 80.5 | -3.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 37.8 | 38.0 | 75.8 | -0.2 | 56% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (19) | 41.2 | 33.0 | 74.2 | +8.2 | 84% | - |
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| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18/12/21 | Wright State v Tennessee Tech | 72-63 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Indiana | 66-90 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Western Kentucky | 97-94 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Blue Mountain | 117-70 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Mississippi St. | 88-106 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Southeast Missouri State | 73-89 |
| 27/02/26 | A | UT Martin | 49-64 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Lindenwood | 72-57 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Siu Edwardsville | 62-52 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Southern Indiana | 82-74 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Morehead State | 66-73 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Samford | 90-66 |
| 11/11/26 | A | Toledo | 76-68 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Florida Atlantic | 97-71 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Air Force | 102-71 |
| 20/03/26 | A | Virginia | 73-82 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Detroit | 66-63 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Northern Kentucky | 103-90 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Cleveland State | 90-61 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Northern Kentucky | 92-91 |
| 26/02/26 | A | IPFW | 74-70 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWL | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 92.0 | 107.0 | 77.0 |
| Allowed / game | 90.0 | 82.0 | 98.0 |
| Point differential | +2.0 | +25.0 | -21.0 |
| Avg total | 182.0 | 189.0 | 175.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | WW | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 91.2 | 99.5 | 83.0 |
| Allowed / game | 69.0 | 71.0 | 67.0 |
| Point differential | +22.2 | +28.5 | +16.0 |
| Avg total | 160.2 | 170.5 | 150.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 100% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tennessee State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 98.0 | 77.8 | +20.2 |
| 2 |  UT Martin | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 85.0 | 74.2 | +10.8 |
| 3 |  Southeast Missouri State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.8 | 77.5 | +2.2 |
| 4 | Tennessee Tech | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 92.0 | 90.0 | +2.0 |
| 5 |  Morehead State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.0 | 81.2 | -4.2 |
| 6 |  Lindenwood | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 82.0 | 69.8 | +12.2 |
| 7 |  Siu Edwardsville | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 71.6 | 72.8 | -1.2 |
| 8 |  Southern Indiana | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 78.0 | 66.5 | +11.5 |
| 9 |  Western Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.5 | 73.2 | +1.2 |
| 10 |  UALR | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 76.0 | 85.5 | -9.5 |
| 11 |  Eastern Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 69.0 | 80.0 | -11.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wright State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 91.2 | 69.0 | +22.2 |
| 2 |  Wisc. Green Bay | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 75.2 | 66.8 | +8.4 |
| 3 |  Youngstown State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 74.0 | 80.5 | -6.5 |
| 4 |  Cleveland State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 75.2 | 88.0 | -12.8 |
| 5 |  Wisc. Milwaukee | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 76.0 | 77.4 | -1.4 |
| 6 |  Northern Kentucky | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 74.6 | 93.4 | -18.8 |
| 7 |  IPFW | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 74.7 | +3.0 |
| 8 |  Oakland | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 70.8 | 91.8 | -21.0 |
| 9 |  Robert Morris | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 52.7 | 80.3 | -27.7 |
| 10 |  Detroit | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 53.0 | 92.7 | -39.7 |
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