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Toledo vs Wright State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 82-74
Projected total 156.3
Final 68-76
31-36 37-40
Position#327
Record1-2
FormWLLLW
Points / game70.7
Allowed / game79.3
Toledo
USA
Vs
76%
24%
■ TOLE 76%■ WRIG 24%
Pythia win probability
Wright State 🏆
USA
Position#62
Record2-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game99.5
Allowed / game71.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Toledo v Wright State
10 Nov 2026
TOLE68
WRIG76
13 Nov 2024
TOLE86
WRIG77
21 Dec 2019
TOLE72
WRIG79
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

On 10 November 2026 the NCAA contest pits Toledo against Wright State, with the model favouring Toledo at 76% to win, a reflection of Toledo's 1-2 record, 70.7 points scored and 79.3 allowed per game, and a 300th league position, while Wright State's 2-0 record, 99.5 points scored and 71.0 allowed per game and a 46th league position give them a 24% chance; Toledo's projected 82-74 score and 156.3 total points align with a 1.5-point home line that the model predicts Toledo will cover 78% of the time, while the 159.5 over line carries a 42% probability of exceeding, and a 4% chance of overtime. Toledo's last five games include a 81-76 win over Marshall, a 61-91 loss to Michigan State and a 70-71 loss to Arkansas State, whereas Wright State's recent five feature two home wins, 97-71 over Florida Atlantic and 102-71 over Air Force, and a 73-82 loss to Virginia; the teams have met four times, Toledo winning three of those encounters, most recently 81-71 on 11 November 2025. The game will be decided by the sharp numbers that the model has distilled.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toledo winLost
75.7%fair 1.32
Best odds2.02
Implied46.8%
Edge+28.9pp
Wright State winWon
24.3%fair 4.11
Best odds1.80
Implied53.2%
Edge-28.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#14
L
76-79
76
79
-3
A15/03
NCAA
Logrono
#24
W
67-65
67
65
+2
A15/03
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
74-75
74
75
-1
H22/03
Segunda FEB
Gijon
#27
L
74-78
74
78
-4
A28/03
Segunda FEB
Clavijo
#10
W
75-70
75
70
+5
H05/04
Segunda FEB
Cordoba
#5
W
66-64
66
64
+2
A12/04
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#13
L
75-77
75
77
-2
H18/04
Segunda FEB
Arkansas State
#301
L
70-71
70
71
-1
A03/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#47
L
61-91
61
91
-30
A06/11
NCAA
Marshall
#265
W
81-76
81
76
+5
A07/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
42-30
0-0
34-49
17-25
13-15
22-11
15-14
24-19
16-17
10-23
24-16
16-16
23-24
14-20
21-18
17-17
24-19
19-14
15-20
18-19
15-6
20-23
13-16
21-24
22-18
18-14
14-21
0-0
35-36
0-0
35-35
0-0
25-48
0-0
36-43
0-0
27-38
0-0
54-38
146.5Avg total
71.9Scored
74.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)70.779.3150.0-8.733%
Season at homeno games
Season away (3)70.779.3150.0-8.733%
Last 10 (10)71.974.6146.5-2.740%
Last 5 (5)70.675.8146.4-5.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)73.979.9153.8-6.038%
vs Similar (13)76.074.6150.6+1.446%
vs Weaker (9)77.067.7144.7+9.378%
This opponent (Wright State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Wright StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
IU Indy
#360
W
85-73
85
73
+12
H20/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
68-81
68
81
-13
H22/02
NCAA
IPFW
#181
W
74-70
74
70
+4
A26/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
W
92-91
92
91
+1
A01/03
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
90-61
90
61
+29
H05/03
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
W
103-90
103
90
+13
H09/03
NCAA
Detroit
#184
W
66-63
66
63
+3
H10/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
73-82
73
82
-9
A20/03
NCAA
Air Force
#111
W
102-71
102
71
+31
H03/11
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#197
W
97-71
97
71
+26
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-36
45-37
29-39
39-42
31-26
43-44
35-53
57-38
37-32
53-29
46-44
57-46
26-29
40-34
43-38
30-44
60-31
42-40
47-28
50-43
160.3Avg total
85.0Scored
75.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)99.571.0170.5+28.5100%
Season at home (2)99.571.0170.5+28.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)85.075.3160.3+9.780%
Last 5 (5)88.275.4163.6+12.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)74.582.5157.0-8.00%
vs Similar (11)78.979.5158.4-0.555%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)84.373.1157.4+11.288%
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
53.7%
@ 1.47-8.8pp
Under 154.5
46.3%
@ 2.45+8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 159.5 · main lineActual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
41.7%
@ 1.90-8.3pp
Under 159.5
58.3%
@ 1.88+8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Over/Under 164.5Actual: Under 164.5
Over 164.5
30.4%
@ 2.40-8.1pp
Under 164.5
69.6%
@ 1.50+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

Toledo total 75.5Actual: Toledo under 75.5
Over 75.5
74.3%
@ 1.42+10.6pp
Under 75.5
25.7%
@ 2.50-10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.50
Toledo total 79.5 · main lineActual: Toledo under 79.5
Over 79.5
60.1%
@ 1.88+10.5pp
Under 79.5
39.9%
@ 1.85-10.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.83
Toledo total 83.5Actual: Toledo under 83.5
Over 83.5
44.4%
@ 2.57+9.3pp
Under 83.5
55.6%
@ 1.39-9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.39
Wright State total 76.5Actual: Wright State under 76.5
Over 76.5
40.6%
@ 1.42-23.2pp
Under 76.5
59.4%
@ 2.50+23.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.50
Wright State total 80.5 · main lineActual: Wright State under 80.5
Over 80.5
26.8%
@ 1.91-22.4pp
Under 80.5
73.2%
@ 1.85+22.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Wright State total 84.5Actual: Wright State under 84.5
Over 84.5
no forecast
@ 2.57
Under 84.5
no forecast
@ 1.39
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.39

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Toledo -1.5Actual: Wright State +1.5
TOLE -1.5
73.3%
@ 2.18+29.9pp
WRIG +1.5
26.7%
@ 1.67-29.9pp
Best 5 market prices
TOLE
Betano
2.18
WRIG
Betano
1.67
Spread Toledo +1.5 · main lineActual: Wright State -1.5
TOLE +1.5
77.7%
@ 1.87+27.3pp
WRIG -1.5
22.3%
@ 1.90-27.3pp
Best 5 market prices
TOLE
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
WRIG
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread Toledo +4.5Actual: Wright State -4.5
TOLE +4.5
84.9%
@ 1.52+24.2pp
WRIG -4.5
15.1%
@ 2.35-24.2pp
Best 5 market prices
TOLE
Betano
1.52
WRIG
Betano
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -1.6-1.61st half: +3.8+3.82nd half2nd half: -1.1-1.12nd half: +5.9+5.9
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -1.6-1.61st half: +3.8+3.82nd half2nd half: -1.1-1.12nd half: +5.9+5.9
ToledoWright State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#14
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A15/03
NCAA
Logrono
#24
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A15/03
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H22/03
Segunda FEB
Gijon
#27
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A28/03
Segunda FEB
Clavijo
#10
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H05/04
Segunda FEB
Cordoba
#5
W
33-25
33
25
+8
A12/04
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#13
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H18/04
Segunda FEB
Arkansas State
#301
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A03/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#47
L
25-48
25
48
-23
A06/11
NCAA
Marshall
#265
L
27-38
27
38
-11
A07/11
NCAA
72.6Avg total
35.5Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76
Last 30 (30)36.935.472.3+1.557%33%
Last 30 at home (14)38.833.171.9+5.786%43%
Last 30 away (16)35.237.572.8-2.231%25%
Last 10 (10)35.537.172.6-1.650%30%
Last 5 (5)32.637.870.4-5.240%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)36.138.874.9-2.638%25%
vs Similar (13)35.835.270.9+0.662%38%
vs Weaker (9)39.232.972.1+6.367%33%
This opponent (Wright State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Wright StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
IU Indy
#360
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H20/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
29-39
29
39
-10
H22/02
NCAA
IPFW
#181
W
31-26
31
26
+5
A26/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
L
35-53
35
53
-18
A01/03
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
37-32
37
32
+5
H05/03
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H09/03
NCAA
Detroit
#184
L
26-29
26
29
-3
H10/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A20/03
NCAA
Air Force
#111
W
60-31
60
31
+29
H03/11
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#197
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H07/11
NCAA
75.0Avg total
39.4Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76
Last 30 (30)39.535.174.6+4.470%40%
Last 30 at home (17)40.335.776.0+4.665%35%
Last 30 away (13)38.534.372.8+4.277%46%
Last 10 (10)39.435.675.0+3.870%40%
Last 5 (5)44.434.078.4+10.480%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)38.542.080.5-3.550%100%
vs Similar (11)36.537.073.5-0.555%36%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)41.633.174.6+8.582%35%
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Wright State win
TOLE win
no forecast
@ 1.98
WRIG win
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Toledo 0 · main lineActual: Wright State 0
TOLE 0
no forecast
@ 1.90
WRIG 0
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Over/Under 76 · main lineActual: Under 76
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Toledo 1st half total 38 · main lineActual: Toledo under 38
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Wright State 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Wright State under 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.02
Under
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread Toledo -1.5Actual: Wright State +1.5
TOLE -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
WRIG +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Toledo +1.5Actual: Wright State -1.5
TOLE +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
WRIG -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.57
1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.32
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Toledo -2.5Actual: Wright State +2.5
TOLE -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
WRIG +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Toledo +2.5Actual: Wright State -2.5
TOLE +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
WRIG -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Spread Toledo -3.5Actual: Wright State +3.5
TOLE -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
WRIG +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half Spread Toledo +3.5Actual: Wright State -3.5
TOLE +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
WRIG -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Wright State (regulation)
TOLE
no forecast
@ 2.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
WRIG
no forecast
@ 1.88

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
TOLE win + total 159.5
🔒 Pro
WRIG win + total 159.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: TOLE leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Toledo (regulation)73.2%2.10
Betano
2.10		----+30.4ppLost
Toledo -1.573.3%2.18
Betano
2.18		----+29.9ppLost
Toledo win75.7%1.99
Betano
2.02
WilliamHill
2.00
1xBet
2.00
BetVictor
1.93		-+28.9ppLost
Toledo +1.577.7%1.83
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78		--+27.3ppLost
Toledo +2.580.7%1.75
Betano
1.75		----+26.7ppLost
Toledo +3.582.7%1.62
Betano
1.62		----+25.7ppLost
Toledo +4.584.9%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+24.2ppLost
Wright State under 79.570.0%1.98
Betano
1.98		----+23.1ppWon
Toledo +5.586.9%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+22.8ppLost
Wright State under 80.573.2%1.82
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80		--+22.4ppWon
Wright State under 81.576.3%1.70
Betano
1.70		----+21.6ppWon
Toledo +6.588.7%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+21.5ppLost
Wright State under 82.579.1%1.55
Betano
1.55		----+20.6ppWon
Toledo +7.590.2%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+20.4ppLost
Toledo +8.591.6%1.27
Betano
1.27		----+19.1ppWon
Toledo +9.592.8%1.24
Betano
1.24		----+17.9ppWon
Toledo over 76.571.0%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+10.8ppLost
Toledo over 75.574.3%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+10.6ppLost
Toledo over 74.577.4%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+10.2ppLost
Under 165.571.7%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+7.7ppWon
Under 166.573.6%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+7.6ppWon
Overtime: no95.8%1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03		---+6.1pp-
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Toledo wins
1
Wright State wins
DateGameScore
12/11/25Wright State v Toledo71-81
14/11/24Toledo v Wright State86-77
15/11/23Wright State v Toledo77-78
21/12/19Toledo v Wright State72-79
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AMarshall81-76
06/11/26AMichigan State61-91
03/11/26AArkansas State70-71
18/04/26HCaceres75-77
12/04/26ACordoba66-64
05/04/26HClavijo75-70
28/03/26AGijon74-78
22/03/26HMoron74-75
15/03/26ALogrono67-65
15/03/26AAkron76-79
Wright Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HFlorida Atlantic97-71
03/11/26HAir Force102-71
20/03/26AVirginia73-82
10/03/26HDetroit66-63
09/03/26HNorthern Kentucky103-90
05/03/26HCleveland State90-61
01/03/26ANorthern Kentucky92-91
26/02/26AIPFW74-70
22/02/26HRobert Morris68-81
20/02/26HIU Indy85-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toledo
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
Home--
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games3-3
Win %33%-33%
Points / game70.7-70.7
Allowed / game79.3-79.3
Point differential-8.7--8.7
Avg total150.0-150.0
Over 159.50%-0%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%-0%
Wright State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game99.599.5-
Allowed / game71.071.0-
Point differential+28.5+28.5-
Avg total170.5170.5-
Over 159.5100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron220100%93.562.5+31.0
2 Central Michigan220100%88.064.0+24.0
3 Bowling Green220100%85.576.0+9.5
4 Ohio220100%83.073.5+9.5
5 Miami (Ohio)220100%83.075.0+8.0
6 Western Michigan32167%78.361.3+17.0
7 Kent State21150%88.567.5+21.0
8 UMass21150%63.065.5-2.5
9 Eastern Michigan21150%62.073.0-11.0
10 Ball State31233%70.066.7+3.3
11 Buffalo31233%77.779.0-1.3
12 Northern Illinois31233%81.086.3-5.3
13 Toledo31233%70.779.3-8.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Horizon League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Wright State220100%99.571.0+28.5
2 Wisc. Green Bay32167%78.066.3+11.7
3 Northern Kentucky32167%84.391.3-7.0
4 IPFW21150%87.071.5+15.5
5 Youngstown State21150%72.080.0-8.0
6 Wisc. Milwaukee31233%78.079.3-1.3
7 Cleveland State31233%77.395.0-17.7
8 Oakland4040%66.591.0-24.5
9 Robert Morris2020%52.582.5-30.0
10 Detroit1010%32.093.0-61.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Toledo313768
Wright State364076
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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