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Texas Tech vs Illinois Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 76-74
Projected total 149.7
Final 84-78
49-29 35-49
Position#70
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game50.0
Texas Tech 🏆
USA
Vs
59%
41%
■ TEXA 59%■ ILLI 41%
Pythia win probability
Illinois
USA
Position#118
Record2-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game116.0
Allowed / game57.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Texas Tech will host Illinois on 10 November 2026 in a low-scoring NCAA showdown that the Pythia model predicts will see both teams scoring few points, as the defensive intensity and slow pace set the tone. Texas Tech comes into the game undefeated, 2-0, with an average of 76.0 points scored and 50.0 points allowed per game, and it has won both of its home games, averaging 76.0 points and allowing 50.0. Illinois is also undefeated, 2-0, averaging 116.0 points scored and 57.5 points allowed, and it has won four of its last five games. The teams have met once before, with Illinois winning 81-77 on 11 November 2025. Pythia gives Texas Tech a 59% chance to win and Illinois a 41% chance, with the projected score 76-74 and a total of 149.7 points. The home team's line is 1.5, with a 62% probability that Texas Tech covers, while the over/under line is 161.0 with a 24% chance of the over. The game carries a 5% chance of overtime, and the last recent result for Texas Tech was a 76-58 home win over Bethune-Cookman on 5 November.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas Tech winWon
59.2%fair 1.69
Best odds2.12
Implied46.4%
Edge+12.9pp
Illinois winLost
40.8%fair 2.45
Best odds1.78
Implied53.6%
Edge-12.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Texas TechUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas State
#292
W
100-72
100
72
+28
H21/02
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
W
80-68
80
68
+12
H25/02
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
W
82-73
82
73
+9
A28/02
NCAA
TCU
#77
L
65-73
65
73
-8
H04/03
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
L
76-82
76
82
-6
A08/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
53-75
53
75
-22
H12/03
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
91-71
91
71
+20
H20/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
65-90
65
90
-25
A23/03
NCAA
Jackson State
#334
W
76-42
76
42
+34
H03/11
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#357
W
76-58
76
58
+18
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
49-35
51-37
42-34
38-34
45-29
37-44
39-36
26-37
46-38
30-44
33-36
20-39
40-35
51-36
25-49
40-41
38-18
38-24
37-24
39-34
146.8Avg total
76.4Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)76.050.0126.0+26.0100%
Season at home (2)76.050.0126.0+26.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.470.4146.8+6.060%
Last 5 (5)72.267.2139.4+5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)77.375.7153.0+1.671%
vs Similar (12)78.674.7153.2+3.958%
vs Weaker (11)82.264.5146.6+17.782%
This opponent (Illinois) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
IllinoisUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oregon
#293
W
80-54
80
54
+26
H04/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
78-72
78
72
+6
A08/03
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
88-91 OT
88
91
-3
H13/03
NCAA
Penn
#115
W
105-70
105
70
+35
H20/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
W
76-55
76
55
+21
H22/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
W
65-55
65
55
+10
A27/03
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
71-59
71
59
+12
H28/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
62-71
62
71
-9
A04/04
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#238
W
120-45
120
45
+75
H03/11
NCAA
Penn
#305
W
112-70
112
70
+42
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
41-21
39-33
37-34
41-38
36-30
42-48
40-30
65-40
35-28
41-27
24-22
41-33
28-32
43-27
29-37
33-34
67-20
53-25
53-30
59-40
149.9Avg total
85.7Scored
64.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)116.057.5173.5+58.5100%
Season at home (2)116.057.5173.5+58.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)85.764.2149.9+21.580%
Last 5 (5)86.060.0146.0+26.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)73.874.0147.8-0.250%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)86.266.3152.5+20.083%
This opponent (Texas Tech) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 156Actual: Over 156
Over 156
34.2%
Under 156
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 161 · main lineActual: Over 161
Over 161
23.9%
@ 1.86-26.1pp
Under 161
76.1%
@ 1.86+26.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Over/Under 166Actual: Under 166
Over 166
15.7%
Under 166
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Texas Tech total 76Actual: Texas Tech over 76
Over 76
50.5%
Under 76
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Texas Tech total 80 · main lineActual: Texas Tech over 80
Over 80
34.7%
@ 1.87-14.7pp
Under 80
65.3%
@ 1.85+14.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Texas Tech total 84Push
Over 84
21.3%
Under 84
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Illinois total 77Actual: Illinois over 77
Over 77
36.0%
Under 77
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Illinois total 81 · main lineActual: Illinois under 81
Over 81
22.6%
@ 1.85-27.9pp
Under 81
77.4%
@ 1.87+27.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Illinois total 84.5Actual: Illinois under 84.5
Over 84.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
Under 84.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.47

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Texas Tech -1.5Actual: Texas Tech -1.5
TEXA -1.5
56.4%
@ 2.18+12.6pp
ILLI +1.5
43.6%
@ 1.67-12.6pp
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.02
ILLI
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.60
Spread Texas Tech +1.5 · main lineActual: Texas Tech +1.5
TEXA +1.5
62.0%
@ 1.95+12.2pp
ILLI -1.5
38.0%
@ 1.90-12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
ILLI
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.86
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Texas Tech +4.5Actual: Texas Tech +4.5
TEXA +4.5
72.2%
@ 1.52+12.5pp
ILLI -4.5
27.8%
@ 2.35-12.5pp
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
1xBet
1.52
Betano
1.52
ILLI
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.16

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +6.0+6.01st half: +10.6+10.62nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +11.2+11.2
-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +6.0+6.01st half: +10.6+10.62nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +11.2+11.2
Texas TechIllinois
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Texas TechLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas State
#292
W
49-35
49
35
+14
H21/02
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
W
42-34
42
34
+8
H25/02
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
W
45-29
45
29
+16
A28/02
NCAA
TCU
#77
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H04/03
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
46-38
46
38
+8
A08/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H12/03
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H20/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
25-49
25
49
-24
A23/03
NCAA
Jackson State
#334
W
38-18
38
18
+20
H03/11
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#357
W
37-24
37
24
+13
H06/11
NCAA
72.8Avg total
39.4Scored
33.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77.5
Last 30 (30)41.634.576.1+7.073%37%
Last 30 at home (18)42.833.275.9+9.689%33%
Last 30 away (12)39.836.676.3+3.250%42%
Last 10 (10)39.433.472.8+6.080%20%
Last 5 (5)34.632.467.0+2.260%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)38.936.975.7+2.043%29%
vs Similar (12)42.436.278.7+6.283%42%
vs Weaker (11)42.431.273.5+11.282%36%
This opponent (Illinois) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
IllinoisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oregon
#293
W
41-21
41
21
+20
H04/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A08/03
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H13/03
NCAA
Penn
#115
W
40-30
40
30
+10
H20/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
W
35-28
35
28
+7
H22/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
W
24-22
24
22
+2
A27/03
NCAA
Iowa
#81
L
28-32
28
32
-4
H28/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A04/04
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#238
W
67-20
67
20
+47
H03/11
NCAA
Penn
#305
W
53-30
53
30
+23
H06/11
NCAA
67.4Avg total
39.0Scored
28.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77.5
Last 30 (30)40.230.770.9+9.677%23%
Last 30 at home (18)41.228.369.5+12.878%17%
Last 30 away (12)38.834.273.0+4.775%33%
Last 10 (10)39.028.467.4+10.680%20%
Last 5 (5)40.228.268.4+12.060%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)32.236.068.2-3.817%17%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)42.229.371.6+12.992%25%
This opponent (Texas Tech) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Texas Tech win
TEXA win
no forecast
@ 2.00
ILLI win
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Spread Texas Tech +1 · main lineActual: Texas Tech +1
TEXA +1
no forecast
@ 1.78
ILLI -1
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 77.5 · main lineActual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Texas Tech 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Texas Tech over 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Illinois 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Illinois under 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Texas Tech +2.5Actual: Texas Tech +2.5
TEXA +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
ILLI -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.55
1st half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Under 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Texas Tech -1.5Actual: Texas Tech -1.5
TEXA -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
ILLI +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Texas Tech +3.5Actual: Texas Tech +3.5
TEXA +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
ILLI -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half Spread Texas Tech -2.5Actual: Texas Tech -2.5
TEXA -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
ILLI +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Texas Tech +4.5Actual: Texas Tech +4.5
TEXA +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
ILLI -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.67
1st half Spread Texas Tech -3.5Actual: Texas Tech -3.5
TEXA -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
ILLI +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Texas Tech (regulation)
TEXA
no forecast
@ 2.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
ILLI
no forecast
@ 1.88

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
TEXA win + total 160.5
🔒 Pro
ILLI win + total 160.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: TEXA leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Illinois under 79.572.0%2.10
Betano
2.10		----+28.8ppWon
Under 158.570.8%2.18
Betano
2.18		----+28.5ppLost
Illinois under 80.575.1%1.98
Betano
1.98		----+28.2ppWon
Illinois under 8177.4%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85		--+27.9ppWon
Illinois under 81.578.0%1.82
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80		+27.8ppWon
Under 161.576.6%1.84
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.81		+26.6ppLost
Under 16074.2%1.93
Marathon Bet
1.93
1xBet
1.93		---+26.3ppLost
Under 16176.1%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
1xBet
1.86		---+26.1ppLost
Under 159.572.8%1.99
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.96
1xBet
1.96		-+26.1ppLost
Illinois under 82.580.7%1.70
Betano
1.70		----+26.1ppWon
Under 162.578.4%1.76
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.72
1xBet
1.71		-+26.0ppWon
Under 160.574.7%1.91
Betano
1.98
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
BetVictor
1.85		+25.7ppLost
Under 163.580.0%1.65
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.63		---+25.1ppWon
Under 164.581.6%1.62
Betano
1.62		----+24.6ppWon
Under 165.583.1%1.55
Betano
1.55		----+23.7ppWon
Under 166.584.6%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+23.0ppWon
Under 167.585.9%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+21.8ppWon
Under 168.587.1%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+20.9ppWon
Texas Tech under 82.573.3%1.55
Betano
1.55		----+14.9ppLost
Texas Tech under 83.576.4%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+14.7ppLost
Texas Tech under 84.579.3%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+14.1ppWon
Texas Tech under 85.582.0%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+13.8ppWon
Texas Tech +4.572.2%1.52
1xBet
1.52
Betano
1.52		---+12.5ppWon
Texas Tech +5.575.3%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+11.4ppWon
Texas Tech +6.578.1%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+11.1ppWon
Texas Tech +9.585.1%1.24
Betano
1.24		----+11.0ppWon
Texas Tech +11.588.7%1.20
Bet365
1.20		----+10.9ppWon
Texas Tech +7.580.7%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+10.9ppWon
Texas Tech +8.583.0%1.27
Betano
1.27		----+10.2ppWon
Texas Tech +16.594.6%1.09
Bet365
1.09		----+8.5ppWon
Texas Tech +21.597.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+7.9ppWon
Overtime: no94.7%1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03		---+5.0pp-
Illinois +23.596.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.7ppWon
Illinois +18.591.3%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+2.0ppWon
Illinois +13.582.9%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----2.6ppWon
Illinois over 62.585.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----8.0ppWon
Texas Tech over 69.574.2%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----10.2ppWon
Illinois over 64.580.8%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----10.7ppWon
Illinois over 66.575.0%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----15.2ppWon
Under 16379.7%1.67
Marathon Bet
1.67		-----Won
Under 16278.0%1.76
Marathon Bet
1.76		-----Push
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Texas Tech wins
1
Illinois wins
DateGameScore
12/11/25Illinois v Texas Tech81-77
Texas Techlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HBethune-Cookman76-58
03/11/26HJackson State76-42
23/03/26AAlabama65-90
20/03/26HAkron91-71
12/03/26HIowa State53-75
08/03/26ABrigham Young76-82
04/03/26HTCU65-73
28/02/26AIowa State82-73
25/02/26HCincinnati80-68
21/02/26HKansas State100-72
Illinoislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HPenn112-70
03/11/26HFairleigh Dickinson120-45
04/04/26AUconn62-71
28/03/26HIowa71-59
27/03/26AHouston65-55
22/03/26HVCU Rams76-55
20/03/26HPenn105-70
13/03/26HWisconsin88-91 OT
08/03/26AMaryland78-72
04/03/26HOregon80-54

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas Tech
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game76.076.0-
Allowed / game50.050.0-
Point differential+26.0+26.0-
Avg total126.0126.0-
Over 1610%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Illinois
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game116.0116.0-
Allowed / game57.557.5-
Point differential+58.5+58.5-
Avg total173.5173.5-
Over 161100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 TCU220100%102.056.5+45.5
2 West Virginia220100%91.049.5+41.5
3 Oklahoma State220100%104.564.0+40.5
4 Baylor220100%98.059.0+39.0
5 Kansas220100%92.055.0+37.0
6 Brigham Young220100%101.075.0+26.0
7 Texas Tech220100%76.050.0+26.0
8 Arizona State220100%82.564.0+18.5
9 UCF Knights330100%86.379.7+6.7
10 Utah Utes220100%66.560.0+6.5
11 Cincinnati32167%73.760.0+13.7
12 Colorado21150%80.068.0+12.0
13 Iowa State21150%79.568.5+11.0
14 Houston21150%81.070.5+10.5
15 Kansas State21150%80.573.0+7.5
16 Arizona21150%89.584.0+5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Illinois220100%116.057.5+58.5
2 Rutgers220100%91.059.0+32.0
3 UCLA220100%99.069.0+30.0
4 Nebraska220100%86.561.0+25.5
5 Michigan State330100%88.764.3+24.3
6 Oregon220100%92.570.0+22.5
7 Indiana330100%88.768.7+20.0
8 USC220100%94.074.5+19.5
9 Northwestern330100%78.760.0+18.7
10 Minnesota330100%74.757.7+17.0
11 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
12 Wisconsin220100%74.066.0+8.0
13 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
14 Ohio State32167%85.377.7+7.7
15 Purdue32167%78.071.3+6.7
16 Maryland21150%85.076.5+8.5
17 Michigan21150%80.576.5+4.0
18 Penn State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Texas Tech493584
Illinois294978
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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