PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Texas faces Southern Utah on 19 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Texas the clear favourite, rating them 97% to win because their 3-0 season record, 100.0 points per game and 57.0 allowed per game place them second in the league. Texas has won all three of its games, scoring 100.0 per game and allowing 57.0, and at home they are 3-0 with the same averages; their last five games were 4-1 and they beat Grambling St. 93-62, Gardner Webb 98-50 and Chicago State 109-59. Southern Utah is 3-2 this season, averaging 96.8 points and allowing 69.6, and on the road they are 0-2, scoring 55.0 and conceding 88.5; their last five were 3-2 and they lost to Wake Forest 51-89 and High Point 59-88 but beat Bethesda 143-49 at home. The Pythia model gives Texas a 97% chance to win, Southern Utah 3%, projects a 93-70 score and a total of 162.5 points, and assigns a 1% probability that the game will go to overtime. The game ends with Texas's dominant offensive and defensive numbers suggesting a decisive victory.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 100.0 | 57.0 | 157.0 | +43.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 100.0 | 57.0 | 157.0 | +43.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 83.4 | 72.4 | 155.8 | +11.0 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 90.2 | 63.6 | 153.8 | +26.6 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 73.0 | 73.2 | 146.2 | -0.2 | 40% |
| vs Similar (15) | 80.5 | 80.0 | 160.5 | +0.5 | 53% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 91.1 | 68.4 | 159.5 | +22.7 | 80% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 96.8 | 69.6 | 166.4 | +27.2 | 60% |
| Season at home (3) | 124.7 | 57.0 | 181.7 | +67.7 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 55.0 | 88.5 | 143.5 | -33.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 87.4 | 74.5 | 161.9 | +12.9 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 96.8 | 69.6 | 166.4 | +27.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (18) | 73.3 | 80.1 | 153.4 | -6.8 | 22% |
| vs Similar (6) | 72.2 | 71.5 | 143.7 | +0.7 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 101.3 | 67.8 | 169.2 | +33.5 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.9 | 35.5 | 74.4 | +3.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 41.6 | 32.6 | 74.1 | +9.0 | 75% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 35.9 | 38.8 | 74.6 | -2.9 | 43% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.5 | 34.8 | 76.3 | +6.7 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 47.0 | 29.8 | 76.8 | +17.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 37.0 | 37.6 | 74.6 | -0.6 | 60% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 36.3 | 37.5 | 73.9 | -1.2 | 47% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 43.7 | 31.3 | 75.0 | +12.4 | 80% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (29) | 38.6 | 37.5 | 76.1 | +1.0 | 45% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 45.4 | 35.8 | 81.2 | +9.6 | 71% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 32.1 | 39.1 | 71.3 | -7.0 | 20% | - |
| Last 10 (9) | 45.0 | 35.9 | 80.9 | +9.1 | 56% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 48.8 | 29.8 | 78.6 | +19.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (18) | 34.4 | 40.2 | 74.6 | -5.8 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 36.3 | 36.3 | 72.7 | +0.0 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (5) | 56.2 | 29.2 | 85.4 | +27.0 | 80% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Grambling St. | 93-62 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Gardner Webb | 98-50 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Chicago State | 109-59 |
| 26/03/26 | A | Purdue | 77-79 |
| 21/03/26 | A | Gonzaga | 74-68 |
| 19/03/26 | A | Brigham Young | 79-71 |
| 18/03/26 | A | NC State | 68-66 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Ole Miss | 66-76 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Oklahoma | 85-88 OT |
| 05/03/26 | A | Arkansas | 85-105 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Wake Forest | 51-89 |
| 13/11/26 | A | High Point | 59-88 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Bethesda | 143-49 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Grace College Lancers | 97-53 |
| 03/11/26 | H | West Coast Baptist | 134-69 |
| 13/03/26 | A | UT Arlington | 63-69 |
| 08/03/26 | H | California Baptist | 75-82 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Utah Valley State | 88-92 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Utah Tech | 81-67 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Abilene Christian | 83-87 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 100.0 | 100.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 57.0 | 57.0 | - |
| Point differential | +43.0 | +43.0 | - |
| Avg total | 157.0 | 157.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWLL | 60% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 60% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 96.8 | 124.7 | 55.0 |
| Allowed / game | 69.6 | 57.0 | 88.5 |
| Point differential | +27.2 | +67.7 | -33.5 |
| Avg total | 166.4 | 181.7 | 143.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 60% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 |
| 3 |  Texas A&M | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 99.2 | 67.2 | +32.0 |
| 4 |  LSU | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 90.8 | 59.5 | +31.2 |
| 5 |  Vanderbilt | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 90.2 | 60.2 | +30.0 |
| 6 |  South Carolina | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 78.8 | 56.5 | +22.2 |
| 7 |  Alabama | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 76.0 | +21.0 |
| 8 |  Florida | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82.2 | 62.5 | +19.8 |
| 9 |  Tennessee | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 10 |  Georgia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 81.8 | 70.2 | +11.5 |
| 11 |  Mississippi St. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 67.5 | +19.8 |
| 12 |  Arkansas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 67.8 | +15.5 |
| 13 |  Oklahoma | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 75.8 | 63.8 | +12.0 |
| 14 |  Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 80.2 | 75.8 | +4.5 |
| 15 |  Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 16 |  Auburn | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.7 | 64.0 | +14.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Utah Valley State | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 92.5 | 78.0 | +14.5 |
| 2 |  UT Arlington | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 89.0 | 69.2 | +19.8 |
| 3 |  Tarleton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.2 | 70.5 | +10.8 |
| 4 | Southern Utah | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 96.8 | 69.6 | +27.2 |
| 5 |  Abilene Christian | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 71.0 | 83.7 | -12.7 |
| 6 |  Utah Tech | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 80.5 | 87.2 | -6.8 |
| 7 |  California Baptist | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.8 | 77.0 | -10.2 |
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