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Tulane vs Nicholls State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Projected 79-74
Projected total 153.6
Final 77-63
35-24 42-39
Position#182
Record1-1
FormLWLWL
Points / game92.5
Allowed / game92.5
Tulane 🏆
USA
Vs
66%
34%
■ TULA 66%■ NICH 34%
Pythia win probability
Nicholls State
USA
Position#250
Record1-1
FormLWLWL
Points / game86.5
Allowed / game63.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Tulane v Nicholls State
10 Nov 2026
TULA77
NICH63
28 Nov 2025
TULA82
NICH72
06 Nov 2023
TULA91
NICH81
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Tulane faces Nicholls State on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Tulane at 66% versus 34% for Nicholls State and projecting a 79-74 win for the home side; the overall shape is a comfortable win for Tulane. Tulane's season record is 1-1, averaging 92.5 points scored and 92.5 allowed, and they are 232nd in the league; at home they are 1-1 with the same averages, and their last five games include a 100-98 win over UT Martin and an 85-87 loss to Jackson State. Nicholls State also sits at 1-1, averaging 86.5 points scored and 63.0 allowed, and they are 181st in the league; on the road they are 0-1, scoring 63.0 and allowing 70.0, and their last five games feature a 110-56 victory over North American Stallions and a 63-70 loss to UAB. The teams have met twice, with Tulane winning both times, most recently 82-72 on 28 November 2025. The projected total is 153.6 points, with a 151.5 over line at 54% probability; the home team must win by 9 or more, and the model gives a 35% chance that Tulane covers. The overtime probability is 5%. The game will conclude with a 79-74 scoreline, reflecting the model's assessment.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tulane winWon
66.0%fair 1.52
Best odds1.23
Implied76.2%
Edge-10.3pp
Nicholls State winLost
34.0%fair 2.94
Best odds3.94
Implied23.8%
Edge+10.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TulaneUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Texas
#138
W
77-71
77
71
+6
A20/02
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
81-75
81
75
+6
H22/02
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
56-90
56
90
-34
H26/02
NCAA
South Florida
#40
L
62-90
62
90
-28
A01/03
NCAA
Temple
#205
L
60-89
60
89
-29
A06/03
NCAA
Memphis
#277
L
95-96 OT
95
96
-1
H08/03
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
81-69
81
69
+12
A11/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
L
60-74
60
74
-14
A12/03
NCAA
UT Martin
#264
W
100-98 OT
100
98
+2
H03/11
NCAA
Jackson State
#335
L
85-87
85
87
-2
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-38
43-33
36-33
45-42
29-45
27-45
38-49
24-41
32-40
28-49
40-31
41-50
39-31
42-38
20-18
40-56
35-37
45-43
42-38
43-49
159.6Avg total
75.7Scored
83.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)92.592.5185.0+0.050%
Season at home (2)92.592.5185.0+0.050%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.783.9159.6-8.240%
Last 5 (5)84.284.8169.0-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)66.876.6143.3-9.838%
vs Similar (11)80.477.8158.2+2.573%
vs Weaker (3)84.770.3155.0+14.367%
This opponent (Nicholls State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Nicholls StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Incarnate Word
#287
W
91-83
91
83
+8
A14/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#297
L
68-72
68
72
-4
A17/02
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
78-81
78
81
-3
A21/02
NCAA
Lamar
#286
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A24/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
W
68-60
68
60
+8
H28/02
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
65-75
65
75
-10
H03/03
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#331
W
61-47
61
47
+14
H09/03
NCAA
UTRGV
#137
L
68-86
68
86
-18
A10/03
NCAA
North American Stallions
#489
W
110-56
110
56
+54
H02/11
NCAA
UAB
#183
L
63-70
63
70
-7
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
46-30
45-53
29-35
39-37
34-39
44-42
20-23
33-29
33-31
35-29
31-40
34-35
25-24
36-23
32-44
36-42
53-37
57-19
30-36
33-34
140.7Avg total
72.5Scored
68.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)86.563.0149.5+23.550%
Season at home (1)110.056.0166.0+54.0100%
Season away (1)63.070.0133.0-7.00%
Last 10 (10)72.568.2140.7+4.350%
Last 5 (5)73.466.8140.2+6.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)71.882.5154.3-10.720%
vs Similar (17)71.970.2142.1+1.765%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)90.059.5149.5+30.550%
This opponent (Tulane) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
66.0%
Under 146.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
54.3%
@ 1.87+4.3pp
Under 151.5
45.7%
@ 1.87-4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
42.3%
Under 156.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Tulane total 76Actual: Tulane over 76
Over 76
62.4%
Under 76
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tulane total 80 · main lineActual: Tulane under 80
Over 80
46.3%
@ 1.87-3.2pp
Under 80
53.7%
@ 1.83+3.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Tulane total 84Actual: Tulane under 84
Over 84
30.8%
Under 84
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nicholls State total 67Actual: Nicholls State under 67
Over 67
77.1%
Under 67
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nicholls State total 71 · main lineActual: Nicholls State under 71
Over 71
63.2%
@ 1.83+12.7pp
Under 71
36.8%
@ 1.87-12.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Nicholls State total 75Actual: Nicholls State under 75
Over 75
47.3%
Under 75
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Tulane -12Actual: Tulane -12
TULA -12
25.1%
NICH +12
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
TULA
No market prices yet.
NICH
No market prices yet.
Spread Tulane -9 · main lineActual: Tulane -9
TULA -9
34.6%
@ 1.86-15.4pp
NICH +9
65.4%
@ 1.86+15.4pp
Best 5 market prices
TULA
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
NICH
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Spread Tulane -6Actual: Tulane -6
TULA -6
45.8%
NICH +6
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
TULA
No market prices yet.
NICH
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -1.5-1.51st half: -0.6-0.62nd half2nd half: -6.8-6.82nd half: +4.9+4.9
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -1.5-1.51st half: -0.6-0.62nd half2nd half: -6.8-6.82nd half: +4.9+4.9
TulaneNicholls State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TulaneLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Texas
#138
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A20/02
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H22/02
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
29-45
29
45
-16
H26/02
NCAA
South Florida
#40
L
38-49
38
49
-11
A01/03
NCAA
Temple
#205
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A06/03
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H08/03
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
39-31
39
31
+8
A11/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
20-18
20
18
+2
A12/03
NCAA
UT Martin
#264
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H03/11
NCAA
Jackson State
#335
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H06/11
NCAA
70.5Avg total
34.5Scored
36.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)33.634.868.3-1.240%33%
Last 30 at home (17)33.534.868.2-1.341%29%
Last 30 away (13)33.734.868.5-1.138%38%
Last 10 (10)34.536.070.5-1.550%30%
Last 5 (5)35.231.066.2+4.280%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)31.537.669.1-6.119%38%
vs Similar (11)34.831.866.6+3.055%27%
vs Weaker (3)40.030.770.7+9.3100%33%
This opponent (Nicholls State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Nicholls StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Incarnate Word
#287
W
46-30
46
30
+16
A14/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#297
L
29-35
29
35
-6
A17/02
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Lamar
#286
L
20-23
20
23
-3
A24/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H28/02
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
31-40
31
40
-9
H03/03
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#331
W
25-24
25
24
+1
H09/03
NCAA
UTRGV
#137
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A10/03
NCAA
North American Stallions
#489
W
53-37
53
37
+16
H02/11
NCAA
UAB
#183
L
30-36
30
36
-6
A07/11
NCAA
67.2Avg total
33.3Scored
33.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)34.335.569.7-1.247%47%
Last 30 at home (14)34.934.969.9+0.057%36%
Last 30 away (16)33.735.969.6-2.238%56%
Last 10 (10)33.333.967.2-0.640%40%
Last 5 (5)34.236.270.4-2.040%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)31.941.773.6-9.810%70%
vs Similar (17)33.932.466.3+1.565%29%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)40.029.569.5+10.550%50%
This opponent (Tulane) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Tulane -4 · main lineActual: Tulane -4
TULA -4
no forecast
@ 1.85
NICH +4
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 72.5 · main lineActual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Tulane 1st half total 38 · main lineActual: Tulane under 38
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Tulane (regulation)
TULA
no forecast
@ 1.39
Draw
no forecast
@ 15.75
NICH
no forecast
@ 3.20

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Double chance (regulation)
🔒 Pro
🔒 1 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Tulane wins
0
Nicholls State wins
DateGameScore
28/11/25Tulane v Nicholls State82-72
07/11/23Tulane v Nicholls State91-81
Tulanelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HJackson State85-87
03/11/26HUT Martin100-98 OT
12/03/26ACharlotte60-74
11/03/26AMemphis81-69
08/03/26HMemphis95-96 OT
06/03/26ATemple60-89
01/03/26ASouth Florida62-90
26/02/26HTulsa56-90
22/02/26HRice81-75
20/02/26ANorth Texas77-71
Nicholls Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AUAB63-70
02/11/26HNorth American Stallions110-56
10/03/26AUTRGV68-86
09/03/26HNorthwestern St.61-47
03/03/26HMcNeese State65-75
28/02/26HSE Louisiana68-60
24/02/26ALamar53-52
21/02/26AStephen F. Austin78-81
17/02/26AHouston Christian68-72
14/02/26AIncarnate Word91-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tulane
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeWL50%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %50%50%-
Points / game92.592.5-
Allowed / game92.592.5-
Point differential+0.0+0.0-
Avg total185.0185.0-
Over 151.5100%100%-
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %50%50%-
Nicholls State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game86.5110.063.0
Allowed / game63.056.070.0
Point differential+23.5+54.0-7.0
Avg total149.5166.0133.0
Over 151.550%100%0%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

American Conference conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 North Texas220100%99.558.5+41.0
2 Tulsa220100%96.062.5+33.5
3 UAB32167%80.075.3+4.7
4 Charlotte32167%72.368.3+4.0
5 Memphis32167%83.389.7-6.3
6 South Florida21150%89.076.5+12.5
7 East Carolina21150%79.074.0+5.0
8 Wichita State21150%82.580.0+2.5
9 Tulane21150%92.592.5+0.0
10 Florida Atlantic21150%72.578.5-6.0
11 Temple21150%60.567.5-7.0
12 UTSA Roadrunners21150%72.081.5-9.5
13 Rice31233%81.372.7+8.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southland conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Stephen F. Austin220100%104.546.5+58.0
2 Houston Christian220100%91.056.0+35.0
3 UTRGV220100%74.557.0+17.5
4 McNeese State32167%100.380.7+19.7
5 Lamar21150%102.572.5+30.0
6 Nicholls State21150%86.563.0+23.5
7 Texas A&M-CC21150%61.063.5-2.5
8 New Orleans21150%73.582.5-9.0
9 SE Louisiana21150%71.085.5-14.5
10 Incarnate Word3030%58.078.7-20.7
11 Northwestern St.3030%60.087.3-27.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Tulane354277
Nicholls State243963
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