PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Tulsa hosts Western Kentucky in an NCAA contest on 16 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Tulsa as the clear favourite at 82% versus 18% for Western Kentucky, a reflection of Tulsa's undefeated 3-0 record, 90.7 points per game and 65.3 allowed, and a league position of 32 compared to Western Kentucky's 3-1 record, 84.2 points per game and 63.5 allowed from 97. Tulsa's home slate is flawless, 3-0 with the same averages, and the last five games show four wins and one loss, highlighted by a 98-50 victory over Ottawa Braves; Western Kentucky's road record is 0-1, 94.0 points scored and 97.0 allowed, and their last five games include three wins and two losses, with a recent 78-51 win over Campbellsville. The teams have met once before, Tulsa winning 82-81 on 19 December 2025. Pythia projects a 82-71 scoreline and a total of 153.0 points, with Tulsa covering the spread and an over probability of 3% for overtime. The game will hinge on Tulsa's ability to maintain its dominant offensive output against Western Kentucky's resilient defence.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 90.7 | 65.3 | 156.0 | +25.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 90.7 | 65.3 | 156.0 | +25.3 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 87.0 | 70.7 | 157.7 | +16.3 | 90% |
| Last 5 (5) | 86.0 | 72.2 | 158.2 | +13.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (2) | 76.0 | 86.5 | 162.5 | -10.5 | 0% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (26) | 85.3 | 73.2 | 158.5 | +12.1 | 85% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 84.2 | 63.5 | 147.8 | +20.8 | 75% |
| Season at home (3) | 81.0 | 52.3 | 133.3 | +28.7 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 94.0 | 97.0 | 191.0 | -3.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 84.9 | 73.7 | 158.6 | +11.2 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 84.8 | 70.0 | 154.8 | +14.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 79.8 | 77.5 | 157.3 | +2.3 | 50% |
| vs Similar (15) | 72.9 | 76.5 | 149.3 | -3.6 | 40% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 85.0 | 73.7 | 158.7 | +11.3 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.6 | 32.5 | 73.0 | +8.1 | 70% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 40.9 | 32.0 | 72.9 | +8.9 | 72% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 40.0 | 33.2 | 73.2 | +6.8 | 67% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.7 | 31.3 | 73.0 | +10.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.6 | 31.0 | 69.6 | +7.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (2) | 35.5 | 45.0 | 80.5 | -9.5 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (26) | 40.1 | 32.7 | 72.8 | +7.4 | 73% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.0 | 35.0 | 71.0 | +1.0 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 38.6 | 32.7 | 71.3 | +5.9 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 32.1 | 38.5 | 70.6 | -6.4 | 17% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.9 | 35.0 | 75.9 | +5.9 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.6 | 32.0 | 70.6 | +6.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 35.5 | 36.3 | 71.8 | -0.8 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 34.4 | 36.2 | 70.6 | -1.8 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | 37.3 | 37.5 | 74.8 | -0.2 | 50% | - |
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| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 20/12/25 | Western Kentucky v Tulsa | 81-82 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Oral Roberts | 80-71 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Northern Illinois | 94-75 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Ottawa Braves | 98-50 |
| 14/03/26 | A | Wichita State | 68-81 |
| 13/03/26 | H | North Texas | 90-84 OT |
| 08/03/26 | H | Temple | 78-76 |
| 06/03/26 | A | East Carolina | 93-66 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Tulane | 90-56 |
| 22/02/26 | H | UTSA Roadrunners | 100-74 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Charlotte | 79-74 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Campbellsville | 78-51 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Tennessee Tech | 94-97 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Kentucky Wesleyan Panthers | 82-48 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Morehead State | 83-58 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Kennesaw State | 87-96 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Florida International | 67-92 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Missouri State | 74-87 |
| 28/02/26 | H | UTEP | 97-65 |
| 27/02/26 | H | New Mexico State | 93-70 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Liberty | 94-73 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 90.7 | 90.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 65.3 | 65.3 | - |
| Point differential | +25.3 | +25.3 | - |
| Avg total | 156.0 | 156.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 67% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLW | 75% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 84.2 | 81.0 | 94.0 |
| Allowed / game | 63.5 | 52.3 | 97.0 |
| Point differential | +20.8 | +28.7 | -3.0 |
| Avg total | 147.8 | 133.3 | 191.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulsa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 65.3 | +25.3 |
| 2 |  North Texas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.0 | 64.5 | +19.5 |
| 3 |  Wichita State | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 88.5 | 70.0 | +18.5 |
| 4 |  East Carolina | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 75.5 | 65.8 | +9.8 |
| 5 |  Florida Atlantic | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.5 | 77.5 | +2.0 |
| 6 |  UTSA Roadrunners | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.7 | 74.0 | +2.7 |
| 7 |  Memphis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 89.7 | -6.3 |
| 8 |  South Florida | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 82.8 | 74.8 | +8.0 |
| 9 |  Rice | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.2 | 74.0 | +7.2 |
| 10 |  Tulane | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.2 | 78.2 | +3.0 |
| 11 |  UAB | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.0 | 74.2 | +2.8 |
| 12 |  Charlotte | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.2 | 67.8 | +1.5 |
| 13 |  Temple | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 75.3 | -8.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kennesaw State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 64.8 | +30.8 |
| 2 |  Missouri State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.3 | 61.3 | +24.0 |
| 3 |  Florida International | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 71.0 | +20.7 |
| 4 | Western Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 63.5 | +20.8 |
| 5 |  Middle Tenn. St. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 80.8 | 76.2 | +4.5 |
| 6 |  Liberty | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.3 | 64.0 | +17.3 |
| 7 |  UTEP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 71.7 | 67.3 | +4.3 |
| 8 |  Louisiana Tech | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.8 | 63.2 | +6.5 |
| 9 |  Jacksonville State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.0 | 75.5 | +4.5 |
| 10 |  Sam Houston St. | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.8 | 85.0 | +1.8 |
| 11 |  Delaware | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.7 | 62.7 | +14.0 |
| 12 |  New Mexico State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 66.3 | 78.3 | -12.0 |
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