Western Kentucky hosts Morehead State on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Western Kentucky the favourite with a 59% chance to win against Morehead State's 41% probability. Western Kentucky's last five games include two wins and three losses, with recent defeats to Kennesaw State 87-96 at home, Florida International 67-92 away and Missouri State 74-87 away, while Morehead State has won four of its last five, losing only to Tennessee State 67-93 away, but securing victories over Southeast Missouri State 66-61 at home and UALR 76-70 away. The projected score is 76-73, giving a total of 149.3 points, and the home team faces a -17.5 line with only a 10% chance of covering; the over/under line is 153.0 with a 40% probability of the over, and there is a 5% chance of overtime. The game will likely hinge on Western Kentucky's ability to maintain its offensive rhythm against a Morehead State squad that has shown resilience in recent wins.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Western Kentucky winWon
59.1%fair 1.69
Best odds1.04
Implied91.4%
Edge-32.3pp
Morehead State winLost
40.9%fair 2.45
Best odds15.50
Implied8.6%
Edge+32.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Western Kentucky total 81.5Actual: Western Kentucky over 81.5
Over 81.5
29.3%
@ 1.47-34.7pp
Under 81.5
70.7%
@ 2.55+34.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.55
Western Kentucky total 85.5 · main lineActual: Western Kentucky under 85.5
Over 85.5
17.5%
@ 1.94-32.3pp
Under 85.5
82.5%
@ 1.85+32.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Western Kentucky total 89.5Actual: Western Kentucky under 89.5
Over 89.5
9.3%
@ 2.80-24.8pp
Under 89.5
90.7%
@ 1.40+24.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
Morehead State total 63.5Actual: Morehead State under 63.5
Over 63.5
83.0%
@ 1.38+14.9pp
Under 63.5
17.0%
@ 3.15-14.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.65
Morehead State total 67.5 · main lineActual: Morehead State under 67.5
Over 67.5
71.3%
@ 1.85+20.7pp
Under 67.5
28.7%
@ 1.90-20.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Under
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Morehead State total 71.5Actual: Morehead State under 71.5
Over 71.5
56.8%
@ 2.57+20.9pp
Under 71.5
43.2%
@ 1.47-20.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Bet365
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.40
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Western Kentucky -20.5Actual: Western Kentucky -20.5
WEST -20.5
6.4%
@ 2.55-32.4pp
MORE +20.5
93.6%
@ 1.57+32.4pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.25
MORE
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.47
Spread Western Kentucky -17.5 · main lineActual: Western Kentucky -17.5
WEST -17.5
9.9%
@ 1.93-40.1pp
MORE +17.5
90.1%
@ 1.93+40.1pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
MORE
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Western Kentucky -14.5Actual: Western Kentucky -14.5
WEST -14.5
15.0%
@ 1.67-43.8pp
MORE +14.5
85.0%
@ 2.32+43.8pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.53
MORE
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.32
Bet365
2.12
1xBet
2.07
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Western KentuckyMorehead State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Western Kentucky win
WEST win
no forecast
@ 1.20
MORE win
no forecast
@ 4.65
2nd half Spread Western Kentucky -7.5 · main lineActual: Western Kentucky -7.5
WEST -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
MORE +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Western Kentucky 2nd half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Western Kentucky over 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Morehead State 2nd half total 34.5 · main lineActual: Morehead State under 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Spread Western Kentucky -6.5Actual: Western Kentucky -6.5
WEST -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
MORE +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Western Kentucky (regulation)
WEST
no forecast
@ 1.23
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
MORE
no forecast
@ 4.60
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Morehead State +10
74.9%
3.30
Bet365
3.30
-
-
-
-
+46.7pp
Lost
Morehead State +11
77.7%
3.00
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
-
+46.6pp
Lost
Morehead State +9
71.8%
3.70
Bet365
3.70
-
-
-
-
+46.6pp
Lost
Morehead State +10.5
75.6%
3.15
Betano
3.25
Bet365
3.05
-
-
-
+46.1pp
Lost
Morehead State +12
80.2%
2.70
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
-
+45.9pp
Lost
Morehead State +11.5
78.3%
2.85
Betano
2.95
Bet365
2.75
-
-
-
+45.8pp
Lost
Morehead State +12.5
80.7%
2.63
Betano
2.72
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
+45.5pp
Lost
Morehead State +15.5
86.9%
2.10
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.96
-
+45.5pp
Lost
Morehead State +16
88.4%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.22
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.95
-
-
+45.3pp
Lost
Morehead State +13
82.6%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+45.1pp
Lost
Morehead State +9.5
72.7%
3.30
Bet365
3.35
Betano
3.25
-
-
-
+44.7pp
Lost
Morehead State +13.5
83.0%
2.41
Betano
2.52
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
+44.6pp
Lost
Morehead State +14.5
85.0%
2.21
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.32
Bet365
2.12
1xBet
2.07
-
+43.8pp
Lost
Morehead State +15
86.6%
2.13
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
+43.6pp
Lost
Morehead State +16.5
88.6%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
+43.3pp
Lost
Morehead State +14
84.7%
2.22
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
-
+43.1pp
Lost
Morehead State +17
89.9%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.02
SBO
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.90
Bet365
1.80
-
+42.4pp
Lost
Morehead State +17.5
90.1%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.86
+40.1pp
Lost
Morehead State +18
91.3%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.79
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.68
-
+38.8pp
Lost
Morehead State +18.5
91.4%
1.72
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.64
+36.6pp
Lost
Morehead State +19
92.5%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+35.8pp
Lost
Western Kentucky under 82.5
74.0%
2.35
Betano
2.35
-
-
-
-
+35.5pp
Lost
Western Kentucky under 81.5
70.7%
2.55
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
+34.7pp
Lost
Western Kentucky under 83.5
77.0%
2.12
Betano
2.12
-
-
-
-
+34.5pp
Won
Morehead State +19.5
92.6%
1.61
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+33.9pp
Lost
Morehead State +20.5
93.6%
1.52
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+32.4pp
Lost
Western Kentucky under 85.5
82.5%
1.83
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
+32.3pp
Won
Western Kentucky under 85
82.0%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+32.0pp
Won
Western Kentucky under 84.5
79.9%
1.92
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
-
-
+31.3pp
Won
Morehead State +20
93.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+31.0pp
Lost
Morehead State +21.5
94.5%
1.45
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Lost
Western Kentucky under 86.5
84.9%
1.70
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Won
Morehead State +21
94.5%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+28.8pp
Lost
Western Kentucky under 87.5
87.0%
1.56
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+28.3pp
Won
Morehead State +22.5
95.3%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Lost
Western Kentucky under 88.5
89.0%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+27.4pp
Won
Morehead State +22
95.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+26.3pp
Lost
Morehead State +23.5
96.0%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+26.0pp
Lost
Western Kentucky under 89.5
90.7%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+24.8pp
Won
Morehead State +23
96.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+24.5pp
Lost
Western Kentucky under 90.5
92.2%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Morehead State +24.5
96.6%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Morehead State +24
96.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Lost
Morehead State over 67.5
71.3%
1.83
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
+20.7pp
Lost
Morehead State over 68
70.3%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Lost
Morehead State over 66.5
74.5%
1.70
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Lost
Western Kentucky under 91.5
93.5%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Morehead State over 64.5
80.4%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Lost
Morehead State over 65.5
77.5%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Lost
Morehead State over 62.5
85.3%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Lost
Morehead State over 63.5
83.0%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Lost
Morehead State over 60.5
89.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Lost
Morehead State over 61.5
87.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Lost
Morehead State over 59.5
91.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Morehead State over 58.5
92.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Lost
Under 158
71.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Under 158.5
71.6%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Under 159
73.0%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Under 159.5
73.5%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Under 160
75.0%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Morehead State over 56.5
94.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Under 160.5
75.4%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Morehead State over 57.5
93.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Under 161
76.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Morehead State over 55.5
95.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Under 161.5
77.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Under 163.5
80.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Under 173.5
92.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Under 168.5
87.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Over 128.5
89.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Over 133.5
82.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Morehead State under 83.5
83.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Western Kentucky over 65.5
84.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Over 138.5
74.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Won
Western Kentucky over 66.5
82.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
Morehead State under 81.5
78.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-10.9pp
Won
Western Kentucky over 67.5
79.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-12.0pp
Won
Morehead State under 79.5
72.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-14.1pp
Won
Western Kentucky over 68.5
76.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-14.5pp
Won
Western Kentucky over 69.5
73.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-16.7pp
Won
Western Kentucky over 70.5
70.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-19.4pp
Won
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.