Tulsa hosts Northern Illinois on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Tulsa the clear favourite, rating them 99% to win because of their 1-0 season record, 98.0 points per game and 50.0 points allowed per game, while Northern Illinois sits at 0-1, 87.0 points per game and 89.0 points allowed per game. Tulsa's single game is a 98-50 victory over Ottawa Braves at home, and their last five games show four wins and one loss, with the most recent home win against North Texas 90-84; Northern Illinois has lost all five of its games, including a 55-94 defeat to Akron. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 93-65 score, with Tulsa winning 99% of the time and Northern Illinois 1%; the projected total is 158.4 points. The home line is -15.0, and the model gives an 87% chance Tulsa will cover it, while the over/under line of 153.5 has a 62% probability of an over. Tulsa's dominant offensive and defensive numbers suggest they will maintain their early-season momentum, and the game is set to be a decisive showcase of their strength.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tulsa winWon
98.8%fair 1.01
Best odds1.07
Implied90.2%
Edge+8.6pp
Northern Illinois winLost
1.2%fair 82.22
Best odds10.50
Implied9.8%
Edge-8.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Tulsa) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149Actual: Over 149
Over 149
72.5%
@ 1.45+8.3pp
Under 149
27.5%
@ 2.60-8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Over/Under 154 · main lineActual: Over 154
Over 154
61.0%
@ 1.91+11.2pp
Under 154
39.0%
@ 1.90-11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.82
Over/Under 159Actual: Over 159
Over 159
48.4%
@ 2.55+11.8pp
Under 159
51.6%
@ 1.47-11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Tulsa total 80Actual: Tulsa over 80
Over 80
91.3%
Under 80
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tulsa total 84 · main lineActual: Tulsa over 84
Over 84
82.9%
@ 1.85+32.6pp
Under 84
17.1%
@ 1.87-32.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Tulsa total 88Actual: Tulsa over 88
Over 88
70.3%
Under 88
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Illinois total 66Actual: Northern Illinois over 66
Over 66
46.9%
Under 66
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Illinois total 70 · main lineActual: Northern Illinois over 70
Over 70
31.0%
@ 1.87-18.7pp
Under 70
69.0%
@ 1.85+18.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Northern Illinois total 74Actual: Northern Illinois over 74
Over 74
18.2%
Under 74
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Tulsa -17.5Actual: Tulsa -17.5
TULS -17.5
81.7%
@ 2.30+39.3pp
NORT +17.5
18.3%
@ 1.66-39.3pp
Best 5 market prices
TULS
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.25
NORT
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
Spread Tulsa -14.5 · main lineActual: Tulsa -14.5
TULS -14.5
87.6%
@ 1.92+37.2pp
NORT +14.5
12.4%
@ 1.94-37.2pp
Best 5 market prices
TULS
SBO
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
NORT
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.89
BetVictor
1.83
Spread Tulsa -11.5Actual: Tulsa -11.5
TULS -11.5
91.9%
@ 1.54+31.3pp
NORT +11.5
8.1%
@ 2.35-31.3pp
Best 5 market prices
TULS
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
NORT
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
TulsaNorthern Illinois
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Tulsa -22
70.2%
3.65
Bet365
3.65
-
-
-
-
+44.7pp
Lost
Tulsa -21
73.2%
3.25
Bet365
3.25
-
-
-
-
+44.7pp
Lost
Tulsa -20
76.1%
2.90
Bet365
2.90
-
-
-
-
+44.2pp
Lost
Tulsa -19
78.8%
2.65
Bet365
2.65
-
-
-
-
+43.7pp
Push
Tulsa -20.5
74.0%
2.97
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.90
-
-
-
+42.9pp
Lost
Tulsa -21.5
71.1%
3.22
Bet365
3.30
Betano
3.15
-
-
-
+42.4pp
Lost
Tulsa -18
81.2%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+42.4pp
Won
Tulsa -19.5
76.7%
2.69
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.65
-
-
-
+42.3pp
Lost
Tulsa -16.5
83.8%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.29
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
SBO
2.00
-
+41.9pp
Won
Tulsa -16
85.5%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.92
-
-
+41.8pp
Won
Tulsa -18.5
79.3%
2.45
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.40
-
-
-
+41.3pp
Won
Tulsa -15.5
85.8%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.95
BetVictor
1.88
1xBet
1.83
+40.2pp
Won
Tulsa -15
87.3%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.00
SBO
2.00
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.88
-
+39.4pp
Won
Tulsa -17.5
81.7%
2.27
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.25
-
-
+39.3pp
Won
Tulsa -17
83.5%
2.19
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.17
-
-
-
+39.2pp
Won
Tulsa -14.5
87.6%
1.86
SBO
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
+37.2pp
Won
Tulsa -14
89.0%
1.79
SBO
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.74
-
+36.0pp
Won
Tulsa over 86.5
74.7%
2.26
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.22
-
-
-
+34.3pp
Won
Tulsa over 87.5
71.4%
2.48
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.45
-
-
-
+34.1pp
Won
Tulsa -13.5
89.2%
1.73
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
SBO
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.71
+34.0pp
Won
Tulsa -13
90.5%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+33.3pp
Won
Tulsa over 84
82.9%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+32.6pp
Won
Tulsa -12
91.8%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+32.0pp
Won
Tulsa -12.5
90.6%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
+31.5pp
Won
Tulsa -11.5
91.9%
1.53
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+31.3pp
Won
Tulsa over 84.5
80.7%
1.87
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+31.0pp
Won
Tulsa over 85.5
77.8%
1.99
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
WilliamHill
1.91
-
-
+30.9pp
Won
Tulsa over 83.5
83.4%
1.80
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
+30.7pp
Won
Tulsa over 82.5
85.7%
1.65
Betano
1.65
-
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Won
Tulsa -11
92.9%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+29.5pp
Won
Tulsa -10.5
93.0%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+29.0pp
Won
Tulsa -10
94.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+27.7pp
Won
Tulsa -9.5
94.0%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Won
Tulsa over 81.5
87.9%
1.52
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Won
Tulsa over 80.5
89.8%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Won
Tulsa -9
94.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Won
Tulsa over 79.5
91.5%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+25.0pp
Won
Tulsa -8.5
94.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+24.8pp
Won
Tulsa -8
95.6%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Won
Tulsa -7.5
95.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
Tulsa over 78.5
92.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.25
-
-
+22.5pp
Won
Tulsa -7
96.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Won
Tulsa -6.5
96.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
Tulsa over 76.5
95.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Won
Northern Illinois under 70.5
70.1%
1.75
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.65
-
-
+17.5pp
Lost
Tulsa over 74.5
96.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Tulsa -4.5
97.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Tulsa over 75.5
96.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
Tulsa (regulation)
98.5%
1.08
Betano
1.08
Marathon Bet
1.07
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Over 150
70.3%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Won
Northern Illinois under 72.5
76.7%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Lost
Over 145
80.3%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Northern Illinois under 75.5
84.8%
1.26
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.22
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Tulsa over 73.5
97.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Northern Illinois under 74.5
82.3%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Lost
Northern Illinois under 71.5
73.5%
1.50
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Over 144
82.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Tulsa over 72.5
98.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Northern Illinois under 73.5
79.6%
1.34
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Tulsa over 71.5
98.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Tulsa over 70.5
98.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Over 149.5
71.0%
1.52
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Over 145.5
78.9%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Over 148.5
73.1%
1.46
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Over 147.5
75.1%
1.41
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Tulsa over 69.5
99.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Over 144.5
80.6%
1.31
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Over 141.5
85.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Northern Illinois under 79.5
92.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Over 146.5
77.0%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Over 142.5
83.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Tulsa win
98.8%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Pinnacle
1.07
Marathon Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
+8.6pp
Won
Over 146
78.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Over 148
74.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Over 149
72.5%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Over 147
76.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Over 143.5
82.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Northern Illinois under 78.5
90.7%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Northern Illinois under 77.5
89.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Over 136.5
91.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Over 137.5
90.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Tulsa +6.5
99.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Over 131.5
95.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Overtime: no
99.7%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
-
Northern Illinois under 81.5
94.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 132.5
94.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 127.5
97.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Over 126.5
97.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Over 133.5
94.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Over 138.5
89.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Over 129.5
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Over 128.5
96.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Over 134.5
93.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Over 139.5
88.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Under 179.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Under 178.5
89.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 53.5
88.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Under 177.5
88.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Under 174.5
84.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Under 176.5
87.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 54.5
86.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 55.5
83.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Under 173.5
82.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Under 172.5
81.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 56.5
81.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Under 169.5
75.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Northern Illinois over 57.5
78.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
Under 171.5
79.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
Under 168.5
73.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Lost
Northern Illinois over 58.5
75.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
Under 167.5
71.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-13.5pp
Lost
Northern Illinois over 59.5
72.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-14.1pp
Won
Tulsa under 98.5
70.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-18.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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