The UALR Bulldogs face Northwestern State Demons on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model favouring UALR at 82% because of their 0-3 record and 73.3 points per game compared to Northwestern State's 1-3 record and 64.2 points per game; UALR's 86.3 points allowed per game is higher than Northwestern State's 77.8, yet the model still rates them higher due to the Bulldogs' higher scoring output and their home-court advantage, where they have 79.0 points per game and 83.0 allowed in a single home game. Northwestern State has struggled on the road, going 0-3 with 60.0 points per game and 87.3 allowed, and both teams have won only one of their last five games, with UALR's recent results including a 69-94 loss to New Mexico, a 79-83 loss to SE Louisiana, and a 72-82 loss to VCU Rams, while Northwestern State's recent results show a 77-49 win over Millsaps, a 71-93 loss to Murray State, and a 44-82 loss to Mississippi St. The two teams have met once before, with the last meeting recorded as a 77-66 victory for UALR. Pythia projects a 77-66 score, 142.9 total points, and an 82% chance that UALR will cover the -10.0 line with a 51% probability, while the over on the 143.0 line has a 49% chance; the game has a 3% overtime probability.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UALR winWon
81.6%fair 1.23
Best odds1.24
Implied79.1%
Edge+2.5pp
Northwestern St. winLost
18.4%fair 5.44
Best odds4.63
Implied20.9%
Edge-2.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UALR) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 138Actual: Over 138
Over 138
61.6%
@ 1.47-1.9pp
Under 138
38.4%
@ 2.55+1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 143 · main lineActual: Over 143
Over 143
49.2%
@ 1.92-0.3pp
Under 143
50.8%
@ 1.93+0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.78
Under
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Over/Under 148Actual: Over 148
Over 148
36.9%
@ 2.60+1.1pp
Under 148
63.1%
@ 1.45-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
UALR total 72Actual: UALR over 72
Over 72
68.3%
Under 72
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UALR total 76 · main lineActual: UALR over 76
Over 76
52.3%
@ 1.85+2.3pp
Under 76
47.7%
@ 1.85-2.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
UALR total 80Actual: UALR over 80
Over 80
35.9%
Under 80
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northwestern St. total 63Actual: Northwestern St. over 63
Over 63
62.8%
Under 63
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northwestern St. total 67 · main lineActual: Northwestern St. over 67
Over 67
46.6%
@ 1.86-3.4pp
Under 67
53.4%
@ 1.85+3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Northwestern St. total 71Actual: Northwestern St. over 71
Over 71
31.3%
Under 71
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UALR -12Actual: Northwestern St. +12
UALR -12
43.3%
@ 2.25+2.2pp
NORT +12
56.7%
@ 1.57-2.2pp
Best 5 market prices
UALR
Bet365
2.25
NORT
Bet365
1.57
Spread UALR -9 · main lineActual: Northwestern St. +9
UALR -9
54.6%
@ 1.89+4.1pp
NORT +9
45.4%
@ 1.98-4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
UALR
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.74
NORT
1xBet
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread UALR -6Actual: Northwestern St. +6
UALR -6
65.8%
@ 1.50+3.3pp
NORT +6
34.2%
@ 2.50-3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
UALR
Bet365
1.50
NORT
Bet365
2.50
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UALRNorthwestern St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (UALR) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: UALR win
UALR win
no forecast
@ 1.44
NORT win
no forecast
@ 2.85
2nd half Spread UALR -4.5 · main lineActual: UALR -4.5
UALR -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
NORT +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 74.5 · main lineActual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
UALR
no forecast
@ 1.47
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
NORT
no forecast
@ 2.87
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UALR (regulation)
79.5%
1.24
Marathon Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.21
-
-
+7.1pp
Lost
UALR -3.5
73.7%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Lost
Overtime: no
96.5%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Lost
UALR -2.5
76.3%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Lost
UALR -4.5
70.4%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Lost
UALR +10.5
95.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
UALR -1.5
79.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Lost
UALR -3
75.7%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Lost
UALR -2
78.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Lost
UALR under 93.5
95.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
UALR -4
72.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Lost
Northwestern St. under 72.5
73.1%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Lost
UALR under 95.5
97.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
UALR +6.5
91.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
UALR under 91.5
93.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
UALR win
81.6%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Marathon Bet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
+2.5pp
Won
UALR under 89.5
90.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 168.5
93.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 51.5
92.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 50.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
UALR under 85.5
81.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
UALR under 87.5
86.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
UALR over 69.5
76.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Northwestern St. +24.5
89.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
UALR under 83.5
75.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Lost
Northwestern St. under 79.5
89.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Lost
UALR under 86.5
84.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 52.5
91.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 53.5
89.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Under 163.5
89.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Lost
Northwestern St. under 76.5
84.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Lost
Northwestern St. under 77.5
86.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Lost
Northwestern St. under 75.5
81.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Lost
Northwestern St. +16.5
71.3%
1.28
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Northwestern St. +19.5
79.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Over 123.5
88.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 54.5
87.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Northwestern St. under 73.5
76.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Lost
Northwestern St. +17
73.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Northwestern St. +16
70.4%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Northwestern St. +17.5
74.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 55.5
85.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Under 151.5
70.5%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Lost
Northwestern St. over 56.5
83.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Under 158.5
83.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Lost
Northwestern St. over 57.5
80.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 59.5
74.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Under 153.5
74.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Lost
Over 133.5
71.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Over 128.5
80.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 58.5
77.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 60.5
71.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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