New Mexico hosts UALR on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Lobos the clear favourite, giving them a 98% chance to win, a reflection of their 2-0 season record, 97.0 points per game and only 62.5 allowed, placing them 25th in the league. UALR, meanwhile, sits at 324th with a 0-2 record, 75.5 points per game and 82.5 allowed, and has only one win in its last five games. New Mexico's two victories have been decisive, including a 100-60 win over Utah Tech and a 94-65 triumph against Northern Arizona, while UALR has suffered losses to SE Louisiana, VCU Rams and Lindenwood. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 91-67 score, with a 157.9 total, and gives the Lobos a 59% chance to cover the home line of -21.5, while the over on the 156.5 total has a 53% probability.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
New Mexico winWon
97.7%fair 1.02
Best odds1.02
Implied94.3%
Edge+3.4pp
UALR winLost
2.3%fair 44.15
Best odds26.00
Implied5.7%
Edge-3.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (New Mexico) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
65.3%
@ 1.42-1.1pp
Under 151.5
34.7%
@ 2.90+1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.62
Over/Under 156.5 · main lineActual: Over 156.5
Over 156.5
53.3%
@ 1.92+3.6pp
Under 156.5
46.7%
@ 2.10-3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Over/Under 161.5Actual: Over 161.5
Over 161.5
41.0%
@ 2.27-0.1pp
Under 161.5
59.0%
@ 1.58+0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.22
Under
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
📊 3. Team Totals
New Mexico total 86Actual: New Mexico over 86
Over 86
70.1%
Under 86
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
New Mexico total 90 · main lineActual: New Mexico over 90
Over 90
54.2%
@ 1.85+4.2pp
Under 90
45.8%
@ 1.85-4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
New Mexico total 94Push
Over 94
37.5%
Under 94
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UALR total 64Actual: UALR over 64
Over 64
61.6%
Under 64
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UALR total 68 · main lineActual: UALR over 68
Over 68
45.1%
@ 1.87-4.7pp
Under 68
54.9%
@ 1.85+4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
UALR total 72Actual: UALR under 72
Over 72
29.4%
Under 72
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread New Mexico -26.5Actual: UALR +26.5
NEW -26.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
UALR +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
NEW
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.25
UALR
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.50
Spread New Mexico -23.5 · main lineActual: New Mexico -23.5
NEW -23.5
52.2%
@ 2.02+3.1pp
UALR +23.5
47.8%
@ 1.90-3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
NEW
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
UALR
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.78
Spread New Mexico -20.5Actual: New Mexico -20.5
NEW -20.5
62.6%
@ 1.74+7.0pp
UALR +20.5
37.4%
@ 2.25-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
NEW
Marathon Be
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.57
UALR
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.00
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
New MexicoUALR
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (New Mexico) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: New Mexico win
NEW win
no forecast
@ 1.13
UALR win
no forecast
@ 6.10
2nd half Spread New Mexico -10.5 · main lineActual: New Mexico -10.5
NEW -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
UALR +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Over 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: New Mexico (regulation)
NEW
no forecast
@ 1.15
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
UALR
no forecast
@ 5.90
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
New Mexico (regulation)
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
New Mexico -14.5
80.1%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
New Mexico -13.5
82.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
New Mexico -15
79.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
New Mexico over 83.5
77.6%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
New Mexico -14
82.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
New Mexico -17.5
72.1%
1.40
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
New Mexico -16.5
75.0%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
New Mexico -15.5
77.6%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
New Mexico -12.5
84.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
New Mexico over 73.5
96.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
New Mexico over 69.5
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
New Mexico over 75.5
94.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
New Mexico over 71.5
97.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
New Mexico over 72.5
96.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
New Mexico over 84.5
74.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
New Mexico -2.5
96.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
New Mexico over 85.5
71.1%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
New Mexico over 74.5
95.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
New Mexico over 70.5
98.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
New Mexico -18
71.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
New Mexico over 79.5
87.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
New Mexico over 77.5
91.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
New Mexico over 76.5
92.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
New Mexico -17
74.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
New Mexico -7.5
92.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
New Mexico -16
77.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
New Mexico win
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
UALR under 82.5
94.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
UALR under 72.5
71.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
New Mexico over 81.5
83.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
New Mexico over 78.5
89.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
New Mexico over 82.5
80.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
UALR under 74.5
78.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
New Mexico over 80.5
85.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
UALR under 80.5
91.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 167
72.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Over 132.5
94.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
UALR under 76.5
83.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
UALR under 78.5
87.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Under 179.5
91.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Over 133.5
93.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 169.5
76.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
UALR under 73.5
74.9%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
New Mexico under 99.5
80.5%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Under 178.5
90.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Under 174.5
85.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Over 134.5
92.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Over 137.5
89.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
UALR over 53.5
91.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
UALR under 77.5
85.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
New Mexico under 97.5
74.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
New Mexico under 98.5
77.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
UALR over 54.5
89.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Under 166.5
70.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Under 177.5
88.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Under 168.5
74.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Over 138.5
88.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Under 173.5
83.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
New Mexico under 96.5
71.2%
1.28
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Over 147.5
74.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Over 142.5
83.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
UALR over 55.5
87.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Over 139.5
87.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Under 172.5
81.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Under 167.5
72.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
UALR over 58.5
79.9%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
UALR over 56.5
85.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Over 143.5
81.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
UALR over 61.5
70.4%
1.26
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Over 148.5
72.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
UALR over 57.5
82.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
UALR over 59.5
77.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Over 144.5
79.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
UALR over 60.5
73.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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