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Uconn vs Gardner Webb Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Projected 87-60
Projected total 146.5
Final 86-46
43-24 43-22
Position#24
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Uconn 🏆
USA
Vs
99%
■ UCON 99%■ GARD 1%
Pythia win probability
Gardner Webb
USA
Position#310
Record-
FormLLLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Uconn faces Gardner-Webb on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model rating Uconn as the clear favourite at 99% versus 1% for Gardner-Webb, driven by Uconn's dominant season record and scoring edge. Uconn has won 5 of 5 games in the season, averaging 87 points per game and allowing 60, while Gardner-Webb has won only 1 of 5, averaging 60 points and conceding 87. Uconn's recent form shows a 4-1 run in the last five, including a 71-62 win over Illinois at home and a 73-72 victory over Duke away, whereas Gardner-Webb's last five include a single win, a 65-64 win over USC Upstate and three losses, the most recent being a 61-71 defeat to the same opponent. The teams have not met this season, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a final score of 87-60 and a total of 146.5 points, with the main total line at 147.5 and a 47% chance of the over; the home team is expected to cover the spread with a 99% probability, and overtime is not anticipated. The game will hinge on whether Gardner-Webb can reverse its recent slump and challenge Uconn's offensive potency.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Uconn winWon
98.6%fair 1.01
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Gardner Webb winLost
1.4%fair 69.76
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UconnUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marquette
#290
L
62-68
62
68
-6
A07/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
93-68
93
68
+25
H12/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
67-51
67
51
+16
H14/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
52-72
52
72
-20
A14/03
NCAA
Furman
#93
W
82-71
82
71
+11
H21/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
W
73-57
73
57
+16
H23/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
67-63
67
63
+4
H28/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
73-72
73
72
+1
A29/03
NCAA
Illinois
#35
W
71-62
71
62
+9
H04/04
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
63-69
63
69
-6
A07/04
NCAA
1H
2H
35-33
27-35
50-30
43-38
32-21
35-30
27-40
25-32
40-36
42-35
38-33
35-24
35-27
32-36
29-44
44-28
37-29
34-33
29-33
34-36
135.6Avg total
70.3Scored
65.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)70.365.3135.6+5.070%
Last 5 (5)69.464.6134.0+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)68.070.5138.5-2.550%
vs Similar (5)66.863.6130.4+3.260%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)78.166.6144.7+11.591%
This opponent (Gardner Webb) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Gardner WebbUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Longwood
#202
L
66-86
66
86
-20
H05/02
NCAA
Presbyterian
#263
L
62-68
62
68
-6
A07/02
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
L
85-103
85
103
-18
H13/02
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
87-112
87
112
-25
H14/02
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#229
L
66-75
66
75
-9
A17/02
NCAA
Radford
#176
L
70-82
70
82
-12
A20/02
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
L
71-77
71
77
-6
H27/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
61-71
61
71
-10
A28/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
65-64
65
64
+1
A05/03
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
59-81
59
81
-22
A06/03
NCAA
1H
2H
35-44
31-42
36-31
26-37
35-55
50-48
37-48
50-64
28-40
38-35
34-48
36-34
37-34
34-43
24-31
37-40
29-30
36-34
27-43
32-38
151.1Avg total
69.2Scored
81.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)69.281.9151.1-12.710%
Last 5 (5)65.275.0140.2-9.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)66.686.3152.9-19.67%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (1)105.065.0170.0+40.0100%
This opponent (Uconn) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 142.5Actual: Under 142.5
Over 142.5
59.7%
@ 1.47-3.6pp
Under 142.5
40.3%
@ 2.60+3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 147.5 · main lineActual: Under 147.5
Over 147.5
47.4%
@ 1.90-2.6pp
Under 147.5
52.6%
@ 1.90+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
35.3%
@ 2.60-1.1pp
Under 152.5
64.7%
@ 1.47+1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Uconn total 89Actual: Uconn under 89
Over 89
40.2%
Under 89
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uconn total 93 · main lineActual: Uconn under 93
Over 93
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 93
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Uconn total 96.5Actual: Uconn under 96.5
Over 96.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
Under 96.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.44
Gardner Webb total 49.5Actual: Gardner Webb under 49.5
Over 49.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under 49.5
no forecast
@ 2.95
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.30
Under
Betano
2.95
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.62
Gardner Webb total 53.5 · main lineActual: Gardner Webb under 53.5
Over 53.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under 53.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Gardner Webb total 57.5Actual: Gardner Webb under 57.5
Over 57.5
59.1%
@ 2.45+22.1pp
Under 57.5
40.9%
@ 1.44-22.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.44

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Uconn -41.5Actual: Gardner Webb +41.5
UCON -41.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
GARD +41.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
UCON
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
GARD
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Uconn -38.5 · main lineActual: Uconn -38.5
UCON -38.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
GARD +38.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
Best 5 market prices
UCON
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.62
GARD
Bet365
2.15
Marathon Be
1.91
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Uconn -35.5Actual: Uconn -35.5
UCON -35.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
GARD +35.5
no forecast
@ 2.72
Best 5 market prices
UCON
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.40
GARD
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.32

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +2.6+2.61st half: -8.2-8.22nd half2nd half: +2.4+2.42nd half: -4.5-4.5
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +2.6+2.61st half: -8.2-8.22nd half2nd half: +2.4+2.42nd half: -4.5-4.5
UconnGardner Webb
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UconnLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marquette
#290
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A07/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H12/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
32-21
32
21
+11
H14/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
27-40
27
40
-13
A14/03
NCAA
Furman
#93
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H21/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H23/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H28/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
29-44
29
44
-15
A29/03
NCAA
Illinois
#35
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H04/04
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A07/04
NCAA
67.8Avg total
35.2Scored
32.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)37.332.169.4+5.373%47%
Last 30 at home (17)39.130.569.6+8.682%47%
Last 30 away (13)35.034.269.2+0.862%46%
Last 10 (10)35.232.667.8+2.670%40%
Last 5 (5)33.633.266.8+0.460%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)29.038.567.5-9.50%50%
vs Similar (5)35.832.268.0+3.660%20%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)38.431.569.9+6.983%52%
This opponent (Gardner Webb) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Gardner WebbLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Longwood
#202
L
35-44
35
44
-9
H05/02
NCAA
Presbyterian
#263
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A07/02
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
L
35-55
35
55
-20
H13/02
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
37-48
37
48
-11
H14/02
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#229
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A17/02
NCAA
Radford
#176
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A20/02
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H27/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
24-31
24
31
-7
A28/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
29-30
29
30
-1
A05/03
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
27-43
27
43
-16
A06/03
NCAA
72.6Avg total
32.2Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)31.241.472.5-10.223%53%
Last 30 at home (14)34.038.172.1-4.136%57%
Last 30 away (16)28.744.272.9-15.512%50%
Last 10 (10)32.240.472.6-8.220%50%
Last 5 (5)30.237.267.4-7.020%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)30.942.373.2-11.518%54%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (1)39.032.071.0+7.0100%100%
This opponent (Uconn) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Uconn -21.5 · main lineActual: Gardner Webb +21.5
UCON -21.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
GARD +21.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 70.5 · main lineActual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.07
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Uconn 1st half total 45 · main lineActual: Uconn under 45
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Gardner Webb 1st half total 25.5 · main lineActual: Gardner Webb under 25.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Uconn -22.5Actual: Gardner Webb +22.5
UCON -22.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
GARD +22.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Spread Uconn -20.5Actual: Gardner Webb +20.5
UCON -20.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
GARD +20.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.47
Under
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Uconn -23.5Actual: Gardner Webb +23.5
UCON -23.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
GARD +23.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Spread Uconn -19.5Actual: Gardner Webb +19.5
UCON -19.5
no forecast
@ 1.86
GARD +19.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 66.5Actual: Over 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.55
Under
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Spread Uconn -24.5Actual: Gardner Webb +24.5
UCON -24.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
GARD +24.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Uconn -18.5Actual: Uconn -18.5
UCON -18.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
GARD +18.5
no forecast
@ 2.80
1st half Over/Under 64.5Actual: Over 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.29
Under
no forecast
@ 3.25
1st half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 3.25
Under
no forecast
@ 1.29
1st half Spread Uconn -25.5Actual: Gardner Webb +25.5
UCON -25.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
GARD +25.5
no forecast
@ 1.47

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UCON win + total 147.5
🔒 Pro
GARD win + total 147.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UCON leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: GARD leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 172.594.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.9ppWon
Over 122.593.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.5ppWon
Under 167.590.5%1.03
Bet365
1.03		----+0.3ppWon
Under 15570.7%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+0.3ppWon
Under 155.571.4%1.29
Bet365
1.29		-----0.5ppWon
Under 157.575.4%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----0.7ppWon
Uconn over 72.592.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.4ppWon
Under 162.584.1%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----1.4ppWon
Over 127.588.2%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----2.1ppWon
Uconn over 73.590.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.9ppWon
Uconn over 74.589.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----4.7ppWon
Over 132.580.8%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----4.7ppLost
Over 137.571.2%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----5.0ppLost
Uconn over 75.587.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----5.2ppWon
Uconn over 76.584.8%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----5.7ppWon
Uconn over 77.582.3%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----8.5ppWon
Uconn over 78.579.5%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----9.5ppWon
Uconn over 79.576.5%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----12.5ppWon
Gardner Webb under 68.580.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----12.8ppWon
Uconn over 80.573.3%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----13.3ppWon
Uconn -18.576.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----15.9ppWon
Gardner Webb under 66.575.0%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----16.1ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Uconn wins
0
Gardner Webb wins
No previous meetings.
Uconnlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/04/26AMichigan63-69
04/04/26HIllinois71-62
29/03/26ADuke73-72
28/03/26HMichigan State67-63
23/03/26HUCLA73-57
21/03/26HFurman82-71
14/03/26ASt. John's (N.Y.)52-72
14/03/26HGeorgetown67-51
12/03/26HXavier93-68
07/03/26AMarquette62-68
Gardner Webblast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/26AHigh Point59-81
05/03/26AUSC Upstate65-64
28/02/26AUSC Upstate61-71
27/02/26HUNC Asheville71-77
20/02/26ARadford70-82
17/02/26ACharleston Southern66-75
14/02/26HHigh Point87-112
13/02/26HWinthrop85-103
07/02/26APresbyterian62-68
05/02/26HLongwood66-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Uconn
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 147.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Gardner Webb
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 147.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Xavier110100%97.052.0+45.0
2 Butler110100%96.060.0+36.0
3 Marquette110100%78.043.0+35.0
4 Providence110100%83.056.0+27.0
5 Seton Hall110100%66.042.0+24.0
6 Georgetown110100%80.058.0+22.0
7 DePaul110100%75.058.0+17.0
8 Creighton110100%76.061.0+15.0
9 St. John's (N.Y.)110100%78.063.0+15.0
10 Villanova1010%72.074.0-2.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big South conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Longwood110100%123.067.0+56.0
2 High Point110100%72.057.0+15.0
3 Winthrop1010%98.0103.0-5.0
4 Presbyterian1010%78.087.0-9.0
5 USC Upstate1010%70.083.0-13.0
6 UNC Asheville1010%77.0100.0-23.0
7 Charleston Southern1010%71.098.0-27.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Uconn434386
Gardner Webb242246
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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