UMass Lowell faces Marist on 8 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, with the Pythia model designating UMass Lowell as the clear favourite, assigning it a 92% chance of victory largely because the team has gone 2-0 this season, averaging 96.0 points per game while allowing only 59.0, and sits at 41st in the league standings, whereas Marist has a 1-1 record, 75.0 points per game, 74.5 allowed, and a 236th league position. UMass Lowell has won its only home game, 1-0, scoring 121.0 points per game and conceding 57.0, and has won four of its last five games, with recent wins over Merrimack Warriors 71-61 away and Rivier 121-57 at home, though it did lose to UMBC Retrievers 69-91 away on 10 March 2026. Marist has won two of its last five games, with a recent victory over UMBC Retrievers 88-80 at home, but also lost to Dartmouth 62-69 at home and to Merrimack Warriors 57-58 away on 8 March 2026. The model projects a score of 82-66 for UMass Lowell, a total of 148.1 points, and a 2% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UMass Lowell winWon
91.7%fair 1.09
Best odds1.80
Implied53.5%
Edge+38.2pp
Marist winLost
8.3%fair 12.02
Best odds2.07
Implied46.5%
Edge-38.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UMass Lowell) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 137Actual: Under 137
Over 137
75.7%
Under 137
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 142 · main lineActual: Under 142
Over 142
64.8%
@ 1.93+15.3pp
Under 142
35.2%
@ 1.89-15.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 147Actual: Under 147
Over 147
52.5%
@ 2.14+8.3pp
Under 147
47.5%
@ 1.82-8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
SBO
1.92
Marathon Be
1.91
Under
SBO
1.82
Marathon Be
1.71
Pinnacle
1.69
📊 3. Team Totals
UMass Lowell total 67.5Actual: UMass Lowell under 67.5
Over 67.5
no forecast
@ 1.39
Under 67.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
UMass Lowell total 72 · main lineActual: UMass Lowell under 72
Over 72
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 72
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
UMass Lowell total 76Actual: UMass Lowell under 76
Over 76
73.8%
Under 76
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marist total 65.5Actual: Marist under 65.5
Over 65.5
51.7%
@ 1.32-17.4pp
Under 65.5
48.3%
@ 2.95+17.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Under
Betano
2.95
Marist total 69.5 · main lineActual: Marist under 69.5
Over 69.5
36.1%
@ 1.88-14.2pp
Under 69.5
63.9%
@ 2.00+14.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.90
Marist total 73.5Actual: Marist under 73.5
Over 73.5
22.7%
@ 2.25-24.0pp
Under 73.5
77.3%
@ 1.83+24.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.01
BetVictor
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.52
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UMass Lowell -4.5Actual: Marist +4.5
UMAS -4.5
84.9%
@ 2.32+44.7pp
MARI +4.5
15.1%
@ 1.80-44.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
Betano
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Marathon Be
1.93
MARI
Marathon Be
1.80
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
Spread UMass Lowell -1.5 · main lineActual: UMass Lowell -1.5
UMAS -1.5
90.6%
@ 1.91+39.7pp
MARI +1.5
9.4%
@ 1.95-39.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
MARI
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.87
Spread UMass Lowell +1.5Actual: UMass Lowell +1.5
UMAS +1.5
92.6%
@ 1.70+36.3pp
MARI -1.5
7.4%
@ 2.19-36.3pp
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.64
MARI
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
2.17
Betano
2.15
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UMass LowellMarist
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UMass LowellLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bryant University
#344
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H12/02
NCAA
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H19/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#352
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H21/02
NCAA
Vermont
#85
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A27/02
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H28/02
NCAA
Maine Black Bears
#355
W
35-26
35
26
+9
A03/03
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
L
35-42
35
42
-7
H07/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
29-43
29
43
-14
A10/03
NCAA
Rivier
#479
W
60-29
60
29
+31
H03/11
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#156
W
38-26
38
26
+12
A06/11
NCAA
72.5Avg total
38.7Scored
33.8Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 69
Last 30 (30)
36.5
35.3
71.8
+1.3
53%
63%
Last 30 at home (13)
40.0
33.5
73.5
+6.5
62%
69%
Last 30 away (17)
33.9
36.6
70.5
-2.8
47%
59%
Last 10 (10)
38.7
33.8
72.5
+4.9
60%
70%
Last 5 (5)
39.4
33.2
72.6
+6.2
60%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)
33.2
39.9
73.1
-6.7
22%
78%
vs Similar (9)
35.9
36.2
72.1
-0.3
44%
67%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)
34.7
33.0
67.7
+1.7
78%
44%
This opponent (Marist) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UMass Lowell -8
77.0%
3.15
Bet365
3.15
-
-
-
-
+47.4pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -7
79.7%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+47.2pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -7.5
77.6%
3.02
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
+47.0pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -4
86.8%
2.16
Pinnacle
2.40
Bet365
2.22
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
-
+46.9pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -9
74.0%
3.40
Bet365
3.40
-
-
-
-
+46.8pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -6
82.2%
2.62
Bet365
2.62
-
-
-
-
+46.8pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -8.5
74.8%
3.28
Betano
3.35
Bet365
3.20
-
-
-
+46.5pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -6.5
80.2%
2.74
Betano
2.77
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
+46.4pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -9.5
71.8%
3.58
Betano
3.60
Bet365
3.55
-
-
-
+45.9pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -5.5
82.7%
2.51
Betano
2.52
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
+45.7pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -3.5
87.0%
2.08
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.12
Marathon Bet
1.78
-
+45.2pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -3
88.5%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
-
+44.8pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -4.5
84.9%
2.18
Betano
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Marathon Bet
1.93
-
-
+44.7pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -2.5
88.6%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
SBO
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.90
+42.5pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -5
84.6%
2.20
Bet365
2.40
Marathon Bet
2.00
-
-
-
+42.0pp
Lost
UMass Lowell -2
90.4%
1.92
Pinnacle
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.92
SBO
1.92
1xBet
1.82
+41.8pp
Push
UMass Lowell (regulation)
90.4%
1.78
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.70
-
-
+40.1pp
Won
UMass Lowell -1.5
90.6%
1.87
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.86
+39.7pp
Won
UMass Lowell -1
91.6%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
SBO
1.78
-
+39.1pp
Won
UMass Lowell over 75.5
74.6%
2.50
Betano
2.50
-
-
-
-
+38.4pp
Lost
UMass Lowell over 76.5
71.3%
2.75
Betano
2.75
-
-
-
-
+38.4pp
Lost
UMass Lowell win
91.7%
1.77
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
+38.2pp
Won
UMass Lowell +1
92.5%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.64
-
-
+37.5pp
Won
UMass Lowell +2
93.7%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+37.0pp
Won
UMass Lowell +1.5
92.6%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+36.3pp
Won
UMass Lowell +2.5
93.8%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+35.4pp
Won
UMass Lowell over 73.5
80.6%
1.94
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
1.99
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.86
+33.3pp
Lost
UMass Lowell over 74.5
77.8%
2.01
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.11
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
+33.3pp
Lost
UMass Lowell +3
94.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+31.6pp
Won
UMass Lowell +3.5
94.6%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+31.4pp
Won
UMass Lowell over 74
80.1%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Lost
UMass Lowell +4
95.4%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+30.0pp
Won
UMass Lowell +4.5
95.4%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+29.4pp
Won
UMass Lowell +5
96.1%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+28.2pp
Won
UMass Lowell +5.5
96.1%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Won
UMass Lowell +6
96.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+25.9pp
Won
UMass Lowell +6.5
96.7%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+25.0pp
Won
Marist under 73.5
77.3%
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.52
+24.0pp
Won
UMass Lowell +7.5
97.2%
1.24
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Won
Marist under 72
73.4%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Won
Marist under 77.5
87.1%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Won
Marist under 78.5
89.0%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Marist under 72.5
74.2%
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.65
+18.6pp
Won
Marist under 71.5
71.0%
1.81
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
+18.2pp
Won
Marist under 74.5
80.1%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Marist under 75.5
82.7%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
Marist under 76.5
85.0%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
Over 138.5
72.1%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Lost
Over 137.5
74.2%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Lost
Over 139.5
70.0%
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.65
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Lost
Over 136.5
76.2%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Over 135.5
78.0%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Overtime: no
98.1%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+8.4pp
-
Marist over 54.5
87.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Marist over 56.5
82.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Marist over 58.5
77.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-11.5pp
Won
Marist over 60.5
70.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-15.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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