On 6 November 2026 the NCAA contest pits UMKC against Southern Illinois, with the model favouring the Illini because their season record of 1-0, 82.0 points per game and only 40.0 allowed per game places them 41st, while UMKC sits 310th with a 0-1 record, 61.0 points per game and 76.0 allowed per game. UMKC has lost all five of its recent games, including defeats to Creighton 61-76, Oral Roberts 62-84 and Oral Roberts 70-94, whereas Southern Illinois has won four of its last five, with a 82-40 win over Maryville, a 63-67 loss to Drake and an 81-67 win over Evansville. Their head-to-head history shows a single meeting in which Southern Illinois prevailed 101-78. Pythia projects a 20% chance for UMKC to win and an 80% chance for Southern Illinois, with a projected score of 69-78 and a total of 147.2 points. The home line of 2.5 gives a 25% probability that UMKC covers, while the over line of 145.5 carries a 54% chance of exceeding, and a 4% chance of overtime. The Illini's recent victory over UMKC last year remains a concrete reminder of their edge.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UMKC winWon
19.6%fair 5.10
Best odds1.94
Implied49.6%
Edge-30.0pp
Southern Illinois winLost
80.4%fair 1.24
Best odds1.95
Implied50.4%
Edge+30.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UMKC) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 138.5Actual: Over 138.5
Over 138.5
69.8%
@ 1.47+6.5pp
Under 138.5
30.2%
@ 2.60-6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 143.5 · main lineActual: Over 143.5
Over 143.5
58.4%
@ 1.93+8.5pp
Under 143.5
41.6%
@ 1.92-8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Over 148.5
Over 148.5
46.2%
@ 2.60+1.4pp
Under 148.5
53.8%
@ 1.72-1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathon Be
1.63
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
UMKC total 67.5Actual: UMKC over 67.5
Over 67.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
Under 67.5
no forecast
@ 3.10
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.67
UMKC total 72 · main lineActual: UMKC over 72
Over 72
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 72
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.85
UMKC total 76Actual: UMKC over 76
Over 76
22.9%
Under 76
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern Illinois total 70Actual: Southern Illinois over 70
Over 70
80.9%
Under 70
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern Illinois total 74 · main lineActual: Southern Illinois over 74
Over 74
67.8%
@ 1.85+17.8pp
Under 74
32.2%
@ 1.85-17.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Southern Illinois total 78Actual: Southern Illinois over 78
Over 78
51.9%
Under 78
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UMKC -2Actual: UMKC -2
UMKC -2
15.7%
@ 2.16-28.6pp
SOUT +2
84.3%
@ 1.72+28.6pp
Best 5 market prices
UMKC
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathon Be
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
SOUT
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Be
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Spread UMKC +1 · main lineActual: UMKC +1
UMKC +1
20.0%
@ 1.86-31.5pp
SOUT -1
80.0%
@ 1.98+31.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UMKC
Pinnacle
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Be
1.77
SOUT
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathon Be
1.94
Bet365
1.92
Spread UMKC +4Actual: UMKC +4
UMKC +4
28.8%
@ 1.64-29.6pp
SOUT -4
71.2%
@ 2.50+29.6pp
Best 5 market prices
UMKC
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.50
SOUT
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.30
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UMKCSouthern Illinois
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Southern Illinois -2
77.6%
2.09
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathon Bet
2.09
Bet365
2.05
-
-
+32.5pp
Lost
Southern Illinois -2.5
74.9%
2.05
Pinnacle
2.22
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.12
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.83
+31.8pp
Lost
Southern Illinois (regulation)
78.2%
1.97
Betano
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
-
-
+31.8pp
Lost
Southern Illinois -1
80.0%
1.95
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.94
Bet365
1.92
-
-
+31.5pp
Lost
Southern Illinois -1.5
78.3%
1.98
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathon Bet
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.95
+31.3pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +1
81.8%
1.84
Bet365
1.89
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
-
+30.2pp
Lost
Southern Illinois win
80.4%
1.89
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.87
+30.0pp
Lost
Southern Illinois -4
71.2%
2.40
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.30
-
-
-
+29.6pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +1.5
82.2%
1.78
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
+28.9pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +2
84.3%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
-
+28.6pp
Lost
Southern Illinois -3.5
72.2%
2.27
Betano
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.19
-
-
+28.5pp
Lost
Southern Illinois -3
74.2%
2.08
Bet365
2.22
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathon Bet
1.94
-
-
+28.2pp
Lost
Southern Illinois over 71
78.0%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+28.0pp
Won
Southern Illinois +3.5
86.4%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+27.7pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +4
88.0%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+27.6pp
Lost
Southern Illinois over 70.5
78.6%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+27.2pp
Won
Southern Illinois +2.5
84.7%
1.67
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.63
-
+27.0pp
Lost
Southern Illinois over 71.5
75.6%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
+27.0pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 72.5
72.4%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.88
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.80
+26.6pp
Won
Southern Illinois +3
86.2%
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +4.5
88.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+26.4pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +5
89.7%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+26.2pp
Lost
Southern Illinois over 72
74.8%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+25.1pp
Won
Southern Illinois +5.5
89.8%
1.43
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+25.0pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +6
91.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +6.5
91.3%
1.36
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +7
92.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+22.9pp
Push
Southern Illinois over 69.5
81.4%
1.56
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Won
Southern Illinois +7.5
92.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Southern Illinois +8
93.5%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 73
71.4%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
Southern Illinois +8.5
93.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 67.5
86.2%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Southern Illinois +9
94.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Southern Illinois +9.5
94.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 68.5
83.9%
1.41
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 66.5
88.3%
1.28
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Southern Illinois +10.5
95.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 64.5
91.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 65.5
90.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 62.5
94.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 63.5
93.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
UMKC under 75.5
74.9%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +15.5
97.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
UMKC under 77.5
80.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +12.5
96.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 60.5
96.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
UMKC under 76.5
77.8%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Lost
Southern Illinois over 61.5
95.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
UMKC under 79.5
85.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Southern Illinois +17.5
98.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Southern Illinois +20.5
99.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
UMKC under 81.5
89.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Lost
Southern Illinois over 58.5
97.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 59.5
96.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 56.5
98.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 57.5
98.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Southern Illinois +22.5
99.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
UMKC under 78.5
83.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Lost
UMKC under 80.5
87.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Lost
Southern Illinois over 55.5
98.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Over 137.5
71.9%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Over 137
73.4%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Over 138
71.3%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Southern Illinois over 54.5
99.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
UMKC under 83.5
92.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Over 136.5
74.0%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
UMKC under 85.5
94.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Lost
UMKC under 87.5
96.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Lost
Over 136
75.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
-
UMKC under 89.5
97.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
UMKC under 86.5
95.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Lost
UMKC under 84.5
93.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
UMKC under 82.5
90.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
UMKC under 88.5
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
UMKC under 91.5
98.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
Over 135.5
76.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
UMKC under 90.5
97.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Lost
Over 133.5
79.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Over 128.5
87.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Over 125.5
90.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Under 170.5
92.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Lost
Over 130.5
84.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Under 168.5
90.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Lost
UMKC +24.5
90.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Under 165.5
86.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Lost
UMKC +22.5
86.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Under 160.5
79.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Lost
Under 163.5
84.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Lost
UMKC +19.5
80.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Under 158.5
75.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Lost
UMKC +17.5
75.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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