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USC vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 16 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 95-61
Projected total 155.9
Scheduled
Position#62
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game88.3
Allowed / game71.3
USC
USA
Vs
100%
■ USC 100%■ ARKA 0%
Pythia win probability
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
USA
Position#472
Record0-4
FormLLLLL
Points / game52.8
Allowed / game98.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

USC hosts Arkansas-Pine Bluff on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names USC as the clear favourite, assigning a 100% chance of victory based on a perfect 3-0 season record, an average of 88.3 points scored and 71.3 points allowed, and a league position of 62, while Arkansas-Pine Bluff sits at 0-4 with 52.8 points scored and 98.8 allowed, league position 472. USC's single home game was a 95-63 win over Wisc. Milwaukee, and the team has won three of its last five games, including a 93-86 victory over Wichita State and a 77-65 win over California, whereas Arkansas-Pine Bluff has lost all five of its recent outings, most notably a 37-106 loss to UCLA. No head-to-head history is recorded. The Pythia projection puts USC at 95 points to Arkansas-Pine Bluff's 61, for a total of 155.9, with a 44% probability that the combined score will exceed the 158.5 line; the model also predicts a 0% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

USC win
99.6%fair 1.00
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas-Pine Bluff win
0.4%fair 282.52
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 15:19 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

USCUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois
#35
L
65-101
65
101
-36
H19/02
NCAA
Oregon
#293
L
70-71
70
71
-1
H21/02
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
62-81
62
81
-19
A25/02
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
67-82
67
82
-15
H28/02
NCAA
Washington
#218
L
72-91
72
91
-19
A05/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
68-89
68
89
-21
H08/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
L
79-83 OT
79
83
-4
A11/03
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#258
W
95-63
95
63
+32
H03/11
NCAA
Wichita State
#102
W
93-86
93
86
+7
A09/11
NCAA
California
#84
W
77-65
77
65
+12
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-54
33-47
32-35
38-36
29-38
33-43
36-31
31-51
43-40
29-51
30-45
38-44
40-33
31-38
46-29
49-34
43-45
50-41
39-30
38-35
156.0Avg total
74.8Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)88.371.3159.7+17.0100%
Season at home (1)95.063.0158.0+32.0100%
Season away (2)85.075.5160.5+9.5100%
Last 10 (10)74.881.2156.0-6.430%
Last 5 (5)82.477.2159.6+5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)69.582.2151.8-12.825%
vs Similar (10)76.677.1153.7-0.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)88.570.4158.9+18.1100%
This opponent (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas-Pine BluffUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Southern
#281
L
64-83
64
83
-19
H20/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
W
84-82
84
82
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
L
69-70
69
70
-1
H28/02
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
L
78-81
78
81
-3
A04/03
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
W
83-48
83
48
+35
A06/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
L
81-84
81
84
-3
A13/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#110
L
61-106
61
106
-45
A04/11
NCAA
Baylor
#6
L
53-109
53
109
-56
A06/11
NCAA
UCLA
#3
L
37-106
37
106
-69
A12/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#321
L
60-74
60
74
-14
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-40
28-43
45-40
39-42
39-35
30-35
36-44
42-37
37-19
46-29
37-39
44-45
28-47
33-59
13-58
40-51
9-51
28-55
27-33
33-41
151.3Avg total
67.0Scored
84.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)52.898.8151.5-46.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (4)52.898.8151.5-46.00%
Last 10 (10)67.084.3151.3-17.320%
Last 5 (5)58.495.8154.2-37.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)68.190.2158.2-22.123%
vs Similar (9)74.477.1151.6-2.744%
vs Weaker (8)91.068.2159.2+22.875%
This opponent (USC) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5
Over 153.5
56.0%
@ 1.50-6.5pp
Under 153.5
44.0%
@ 2.55+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 158.5 · main line
Over 158.5
43.6%
@ 1.90-6.4pp
Under 158.5
56.4%
@ 1.90+6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 163.5
Over 163.5
31.8%
@ 2.60-4.7pp
Under 163.5
68.2%
@ 1.47+4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

USC total 97.5
Over 97.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under 97.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.50
USC total 101.5 · main line
Over 101.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under 101.5
no forecast
@ 1.86
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
USC total 105.5
Over 105.5
no forecast
@ 2.57
Under 105.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.40
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 54.5
Over 54.5
72.7%
@ 1.50+10.5pp
Under 54.5
27.3%
@ 2.60-10.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.27
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 58.5 · main line
Over 58.5
58.0%
@ 2.12+8.7pp
Under 58.5
42.0%
@ 1.86-8.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 62.5
Over 62.5
42.0%
@ 3.30+13.6pp
Under 62.5
58.0%
@ 1.29-13.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.30
Betano
3.15
Under
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.27

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread USC -45.5
USC -45.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
ARKA +45.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
Best 5 market prices
USC
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.00
ARKA
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.68
Spread USC -42.5 · main line
USC -42.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
ARKA +42.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
Best 5 market prices
USC
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Be
1.68
Betano
1.67
ARKA
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Be
1.98
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread USC -39.5
USC -39.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
ARKA +39.5
no forecast
@ 2.67
Best 5 market prices
USC
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.40
ARKA
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.30

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -1.0-1.01st half: -9.9-9.92nd half2nd half: -5.0-5.02nd half: -7.4-7.4
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -1.0-1.01st half: -9.9-9.92nd half2nd half: -5.0-5.02nd half: -7.4-7.4
USCArkansas-Pine Bluff
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
USCLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois
#35
L
32-54
32
54
-22
H19/02
NCAA
Oregon
#293
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H21/02
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A25/02
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H28/02
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A05/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
30-45
30
45
-15
H08/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A11/03
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#258
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H03/11
NCAA
Wichita State
#102
L
43-45
43
45
-2
A09/11
NCAA
California
#84
W
39-30
39
30
+9
A12/11
NCAA
75.0Avg total
37.0Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)36.736.272.8+0.550%37%
Last 30 at home (15)37.134.671.7+2.560%27%
Last 30 away (15)36.237.773.9-1.540%47%
Last 10 (10)37.038.075.0-1.050%30%
Last 5 (5)39.636.476.0+3.260%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)32.539.071.5-6.533%42%
vs Similar (10)38.435.273.6+3.250%50%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)40.833.173.9+7.675%12%
This opponent (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas-Pine BluffLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Southern
#281
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H20/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H28/02
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A04/03
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
W
37-19
37
19
+18
A06/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A13/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#110
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A04/11
NCAA
Baylor
#6
L
13-58
13
58
-45
A06/11
NCAA
UCLA
#3
L
9-51
9
51
-42
A12/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#321
L
27-33
27
33
-6
A14/11
NCAA
71.3Avg total
30.7Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)35.536.171.5-0.653%27%
Last 30 at home (11)43.235.178.3+8.182%45%
Last 30 away (19)31.036.667.6-5.637%16%
Last 10 (10)30.740.671.3-9.930%20%
Last 5 (5)22.845.668.4-22.80%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)30.840.571.4-9.731%23%
vs Similar (9)35.233.068.2+2.256%11%
vs Weaker (8)43.232.275.5+11.088%50%
This opponent (USC) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread USC -21 · main line
USC -21
no forecast
@ 1.85
ARKA +21
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 76.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
USC 1st half total 50 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1st half total 26 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.65
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.25
Under
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread USC -22.5
USC -22.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
ARKA +22.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under
no forecast
@ 2.47
1st half Over/Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.70
Under
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half Spread USC -23.5
USC -23.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
ARKA +23.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half Spread USC -24.5
USC -24.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
ARKA +24.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Spread USC -25.5
USC -25.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
ARKA +25.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Spread USC -26.5
USC -26.5
no forecast
@ 2.02
ARKA +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread USC -27.5
USC -27.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
ARKA +27.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread USC -28.5
USC -28.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
ARKA +28.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread USC -29.5
USC -29.5
no forecast
@ 2.67
ARKA +29.5
no forecast
@ 1.40

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
USC win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
ARKA win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 54.572.7%1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45		---+10.5pp
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 52.579.0%1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.29		---+9.2pp
Under 16776.0%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+9.1pp
Under 16878.0%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+8.5pp
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 53.576.0%1.34
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.26		---+7.0pp
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🔒 17 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
USC wins
0
Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins
No previous meetings.
USClast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26ACalifornia77-65
09/11/26AWichita State93-86
03/11/26HWisc. Milwaukee95-63
11/03/26AWashington79-83 OT
08/03/26HUCLA68-89
05/03/26AWashington72-91
28/02/26HNebraska67-82
25/02/26AUCLA62-81
21/02/26HOregon70-71
19/02/26HIllinois65-101
Arkansas-Pine Blufflast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ACalifornia Baptist60-74
12/11/26AUCLA37-106
06/11/26ABaylor53-109
04/11/26AArkansas61-106
13/03/26ASouthern Univ.81-84
06/03/26AAlcorn State83-48
04/03/26AJackson State78-81
28/02/26HMiss. Valley St.69-70
21/02/26HPrairie View A&M84-82
20/02/26HTexas Southern64-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

USC
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game88.395.085.0
Allowed / game71.363.075.5
Point differential+17.0+32.0+9.5
Avg total159.7158.0160.5
Over 158.533%0%50%
Win by 10+67%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLL0%
Home--
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games4-4
Win %0%-0%
Points / game52.8-52.8
Allowed / game98.8-98.8
Point differential-46.0--46.0
Avg total151.5-151.5
Over 158.550%-50%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southwestern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alabama A&M Bulldogs43175%81.267.8+13.5
2 Grambling St.21150%75.590.0-14.5
3 Prairie View A&M52340%75.482.0-6.6
4 Jackson State52340%68.483.0-14.6
5 Alabama State31233%69.778.7-9.0
6 Florida A&M41325%77.880.8-3.0
7 Texas Southern41325%76.593.0-16.5
8 Bethune-Cookman4040%71.085.5-14.5
9 Miss. Valley St.4040%63.085.5-22.5
10 Alcorn State4040%66.890.0-23.2
11 Southern Univ.5050%60.488.2-27.8
12 Arkansas-Pine Bluff4040%52.898.8-46.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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