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Vermont vs Quinnipiac Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Projected 80-64
Projected total 143.6
Final 76-79
40-37 36-42
Position#276
Record1-1
FormWWLLW
Points / game67.0
Allowed / game61.5
Vermont
USA
Vs
92%
■ VERM 92%■ QUIN 8%
Pythia win probability
Quinnipiac 🏆
USA
Position#174
Record1-1
FormLWLLW
Points / game62.5
Allowed / game76.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Vermont hosts Quinnipiac on 8 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Vermont the clear favourite, assigning it a 92% chance to win because its 1-1 record and 67.0 points per game contrast with Quinnipiac's 1-1 record and 62.5 points per game while Vermont's opponents have allowed only 61.5 points per game versus Quinnipiac's 76.0. Vermont's season so far shows a 1-1 record, 67.0 points scored and 61.5 points allowed, and it sits 222nd in the league; its last five games include three wins and two losses, with a recent 79-67 victory over Fairfield and a narrow 55-56 loss to Iona. Quinnipiac's season mirrors a 1-1 record, 62.5 points scored and 76.0 points allowed, ranking 267th; its last five games contain two wins and three losses, with a 66-56 win over Bryant University and a 59-96 loss to Michigan State. No head-to-head history is recorded. Pythia projects a 80-64 score, 143.6 total points, a home line of -8.5 with a 75% chance Vermont covers, and a 139.5 total with a 60% over probability; overtime is unlikely at 2%. The game ends with Vermont's 80 points against Quinnipiac's 64.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vermont winLost
91.8%fair 1.09
Best odds1.27
Implied76.4%
Edge+15.4pp
Quinnipiac winWon
8.2%fair 12.18
Best odds4.20
Implied23.6%
Edge-15.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VermontUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bryant University
#344
W
90-63
90
63
+27
H14/02
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
62-75
62
75
-13
A19/02
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
70-64
70
64
+6
A22/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
66-64
66
64
+2
H27/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
69-56
69
56
+13
H04/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
77-57
77
57
+20
H07/03
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
63-54
63
54
+9
H10/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
59-74
59
74
-15
A14/03
NCAA
Iona
#172
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A03/11
NCAA
Fairfield
#236
W
79-67
79
67
+12
A06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-27
51-36
26-38
36-37
30-30
40-34
34-30
32-34
31-26
38-30
38-27
39-30
26-18
37-36
28-30
31-44
29-21
26-35
38-25
41-42
132.0Avg total
69.0Scored
63.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)67.061.5128.5+5.550%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)67.061.5128.5+5.550%
Last 10 (10)69.063.0132.0+6.070%
Last 5 (5)66.661.6128.2+5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)64.870.2135.0-5.525%
vs Similar (3)71.369.3140.7+2.067%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)71.065.3136.3+5.670%
This opponent (Quinnipiac) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
QuinnipiacUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canisius
#327
W
75-60
75
60
+15
H06/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
56-55
56
55
+1
H07/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
74-62
74
62
+12
A14/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
49-56
49
56
-7
H15/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
L
79-85
79
85
-6
H22/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
L
76-78 OT
76
78
-2
A27/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
67-63
67
63
+4
A01/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
L
75-77
75
77
-2
H07/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#27
L
59-96
59
96
-37
A03/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#293
W
66-56
66
56
+10
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
41-31
34-29
36-24
20-31
34-27
40-35
21-21
28-35
36-39
43-46
32-31
36-37
29-30
38-33
32-42
43-35
24-52
35-44
33-29
33-27
136.4Avg total
67.6Scored
68.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)62.576.0138.5-13.550%
Season at home (1)66.056.0122.0+10.0100%
Season away (1)59.096.0155.0-37.00%
Last 10 (10)67.668.8136.4-1.250%
Last 5 (5)68.674.0142.6-5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)62.585.0147.5-22.50%
vs Similar (13)73.071.7144.7+1.346%
vs Weaker (15)79.169.0148.1+10.180%
This opponent (Vermont) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 134.5Actual: Over 134.5
Over 134.5
71.1%
@ 1.47+8.4pp
Under 134.5
28.9%
@ 2.47-8.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 139.5 · main lineActual: Over 139.5
Over 139.5
59.8%
@ 1.93+10.4pp
Under 139.5
40.2%
@ 1.90-10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
Under
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 144.5Actual: Over 144.5
Over 144.5
47.5%
@ 2.40+9.1pp
Under 144.5
52.5%
@ 1.50-9.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

Vermont total 69.5Actual: Vermont over 69.5
Over 69.5
no forecast
@ 1.35
Under 69.5
no forecast
@ 2.75
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
2.75
Vermont total 74 · main lineActual: Vermont over 74
Over 74
73.1%
@ 1.86+23.2pp
Under 74
26.9%
@ 1.85-23.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Vermont total 78Actual: Vermont under 78
Over 78
57.7%
Under 78
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Quinnipiac total 63Actual: Quinnipiac over 63
Over 63
52.7%
Under 63
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Quinnipiac total 67 · main lineActual: Quinnipiac over 67
Over 67
36.4%
@ 1.87-13.3pp
Under 67
63.6%
@ 1.85+13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Quinnipiac total 71Actual: Quinnipiac over 71
Over 71
22.6%
Under 71
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Vermont -11.5Actual: Quinnipiac +11.5
VERM -11.5
65.8%
@ 2.18+23.5pp
QUIN +11.5
34.2%
@ 1.60-23.5pp
Best 5 market prices
VERM
Betano
2.18
QUIN
Betano
1.60
Spread Vermont -8.5 · main lineActual: Quinnipiac +8.5
VERM -8.5
75.0%
@ 1.90+24.1pp
QUIN +8.5
25.0%
@ 1.95-24.1pp
Best 5 market prices
VERM
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.83
QUIN
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
Spread Vermont -5.5Actual: Quinnipiac +5.5
VERM -5.5
82.9%
@ 1.68+24.4pp
QUIN +5.5
17.1%
@ 2.32-24.4pp
Best 5 market prices
VERM
Marathon Be
1.68
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.53
QUIN
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.29

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.7+4.71st half: -0.8-0.82nd half2nd half: +1.3+1.32nd half: -0.2-0.2
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.7+4.71st half: -0.8-0.82nd half2nd half: +1.3+1.32nd half: -0.2-0.2
VermontQuinnipiac
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VermontLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bryant University
#344
W
39-27
39
27
+12
H14/02
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
26-38
26
38
-12
A19/02
NCAA
NJIT
#220
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A22/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H27/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H04/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
38-27
38
27
+11
H07/03
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
26-18
26
18
+8
H10/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A14/03
NCAA
Iona
#172
W
29-21
29
21
+8
A03/11
NCAA
Fairfield
#236
W
38-25
38
25
+13
A06/11
NCAA
59.1Avg total
31.9Scored
27.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 65.5
Last 30 (30)32.329.962.2+2.357%43%
Last 30 at home (15)33.029.262.2+3.867%40%
Last 30 away (15)31.530.762.2+0.947%47%
Last 10 (10)31.927.259.1+4.770%10%
Last 5 (5)31.824.256.0+7.680%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)28.533.061.5-4.50%25%
vs Similar (3)33.727.761.3+6.067%33%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)32.729.762.4+3.065%48%
This opponent (Quinnipiac) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
QuinnipiacLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canisius
#327
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H06/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H07/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
34-27
34
27
+7
A14/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
D
21-21
21
21
+0
H15/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H22/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A27/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
29-30
29
30
-1
A01/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H07/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#27
L
24-52
24
52
-28
A03/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#293
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H06/11
NCAA
64.4Avg total
31.8Scored
32.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 65.5
Last 30 (30)36.334.270.5+2.157%67%
Last 30 at home (15)36.731.668.3+5.160%67%
Last 30 away (15)35.936.872.7-0.953%67%
Last 10 (10)31.832.664.4-0.850%40%
Last 5 (5)30.036.866.8-6.840%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)27.541.569.0-14.00%50%
vs Similar (13)34.536.270.6-1.746%69%
vs Weaker (15)39.131.570.6+7.573%67%
This opponent (Vermont) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Vermont win
VERM win
no forecast
@ 1.37
QUIN win
no forecast
@ 3.15
1st half Spread Vermont -3.5 · main lineActual: Quinnipiac +3.5
VERM -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
QUIN +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 65.5 · main lineActual: Over 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
Vermont 1st half total 34.5 · main lineActual: Vermont over 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
Quinnipiac 1st half total 31.5 · main lineActual: Quinnipiac over 31.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.00
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 67Actual: Over 67
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Vermont -4.5Actual: Quinnipiac +4.5
VERM -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
QUIN +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Spread Vermont -2.5Actual: Vermont -2.5
VERM -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
QUIN +2.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half Over/Under 63.5Actual: Over 63.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Over 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Vermont -5.5Actual: Quinnipiac +5.5
VERM -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
QUIN +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread Vermont -1.5Actual: Vermont -1.5
VERM -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
QUIN +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.47
1st half Spread Vermont -6.5Actual: Quinnipiac +6.5
VERM -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
QUIN +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Over 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Vermont -7.5Actual: Quinnipiac +7.5
VERM -7.5
no forecast
@ 2.32
QUIN +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Quinnipiac (regulation)
VERM
no forecast
@ 1.40
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
QUIN
no forecast
@ 3.53

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
VERM win + total 139.5
🔒 Pro
QUIN win + total 139.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: VERM leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Vermont -1071.2%2.12
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathon Bet
2.05		---+27.5ppLost
Vermont -9.572.1%1.98
Pinnacle
2.09
SBO
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.97
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.88		+26.1ppLost
Vermont -682.4%1.72
Marathon Bet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.69		--+26.0ppLost
Vermont -6.580.4%1.72
1xBet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.72
Betano
1.60		-+25.9ppLost
Vermont -974.3%1.93
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.89		--+25.8ppLost
Vermont -5.582.9%1.61
Marathon Bet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.53		--+24.4ppLost
Vermont over 73.574.0%1.82
Pinnacle
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.75		-+24.4ppWon
Vermont -8.575.0%1.85
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.83		+24.1ppLost
Vermont -877.2%1.79
1xBet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.76
SBO
1.74		-+23.9ppLost
Vermont over 74.570.6%1.89
Pinnacle
2.00
BetVictor
1.95
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.86
1xBet
1.85		+23.8ppWon
Vermont over 7473.1%1.85
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85		---+23.2ppWon
Vermont -779.9%1.74
Marathon Bet
1.79
1xBet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.68		--+22.9ppLost
Vermont -7.577.8%1.77
BetVictor
1.85
SBO
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.72		+22.7ppLost
Vermont -4.585.1%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+21.6ppLost
Vermont -3.587.2%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+21.0ppLost
Vermont -2.588.8%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+20.0ppLost
Vermont -1.590.7%1.29
Betano
1.29		----+19.4ppLost
Vermont (regulation)90.6%1.25
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Marathon Bet
1.21		--+18.7ppLost
Vermont +1.592.7%1.22
Betano
1.22		----+17.2ppLost
Vermont win91.8%1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.23		+15.4ppLost
Quinnipiac under 71.578.1%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+10.7ppLost
Over 134.571.1%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+8.4ppWon
Over 133.573.2%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+8.4ppWon
Over 132.575.2%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+8.1ppWon
Quinnipiac under 70.575.1%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+7.0ppLost
Quinnipiac under 69.571.9%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+6.8ppLost
Overtime: no98.1%1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02		---+6.5pp-
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Vermont wins
0
Quinnipiac wins
No previous meetings.
Vermontlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26AFairfield79-67
03/11/26AIona55-56
14/03/26AUMBC Retrievers59-74
10/03/26HNJIT63-54
07/03/26HBryant University77-57
04/03/26HAlbany Great Danes69-56
27/02/26HUMass Lowell66-64
22/02/26ANJIT70-64
19/02/26AUMBC Retrievers62-75
14/02/26HBryant University90-63
Quinnipiaclast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HBryant University66-56
03/11/26AMichigan State59-96
07/03/26HMarist75-77
01/03/26ACanisius67-63
27/02/26ANiagara76-78 OT
22/02/26HFairfield79-85
15/02/26HMerrimack Warriors49-56
14/02/26ASiena74-62
07/02/26HNiagara56-55
06/02/26HCanisius75-60

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vermont
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
Home--
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %50%-50%
Points / game67.0-67.0
Allowed / game61.5-61.5
Point differential+5.5-+5.5
Avg total128.5-128.5
Over 139.550%-50%
Win by 10+50%-50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
Quinnipiac
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game62.566.059.0
Allowed / game76.056.096.0
Point differential-13.5+10.0-37.0
Avg total138.5122.0155.0
Over 139.550%0%100%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMass Lowell330100%85.059.7+25.3
2 Vermont21150%67.061.5+5.5
3 Binghamton21150%59.070.5-11.5
4 Bryant University31233%65.069.7-4.7
5 Maine Black Bears31233%64.074.3-10.3
6 UMBC Retrievers2020%67.085.0-18.0
7 NJIT2020%53.580.5-27.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sacred Heart32167%88.064.7+23.3
2 Iona32167%64.369.3-5.0
3 Siena21150%78.574.0+4.5
4 Merrimack Warriors21150%62.060.0+2.0
5 Fairfield21150%67.569.0-1.5
6 Quinnipiac21150%62.576.0-13.5
7 Mount St. Mary's21150%60.077.0-17.0
8 Marist31233%70.370.7-0.3
9 Manhattan31233%64.373.0-8.7
10 St. Peters2020%48.562.0-13.5
11 Rider2020%56.080.5-24.5
12 Niagara2020%56.582.0-25.5
13 Canisius2020%53.092.5-39.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Vermont403676
Quinnipiac374279
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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