Virginia Tech will host Mercer on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating the Hokies as the favourite thanks to their 1-0 record, 88.0 points per game and 54.0 allowed per game, the best offensive and defensive figures among the two teams; Mercer, also 1-0, scores 90.0 and allows 53.0, but the Hokies' higher points per game and lower points allowed give the edge. Virginia Tech's lone game was a 88-54 win at home, and their last five games show two wins and three losses, with a recent 88-54 victory over Coppin State at home; Mercer's single outing was a 90-53 win at home, and their last five games record three wins and two losses, highlighted by a 90-53 win over Reinhardt at home. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects an 83% chance of a Virginia Tech win and a 17% chance for Mercer, with a projected score of 82-71 and a total of 153.1 points; the home line is -21.5 with a 17% chance of covering, and the total line is 152.5 with a 51% chance of the over, while the overtime probability is 3%. The Hokies' strong early season performance and higher scoring average suggest they will maintain their advantage in this opening contest.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Virginia Tech winWon
82.7%fair 1.21
Best odds1.03
Implied94.4%
Edge-11.6pp
Mercer winLost
17.3%fair 5.79
Best odds20.00
Implied5.6%
Edge+11.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 14:17 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Virginia Tech) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147.5Actual: Over 147.5
Over 147.5
63.1%
@ 1.47-2.3pp
Under 147.5
36.9%
@ 2.90+2.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 152.5 · main lineActual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
51.0%
@ 1.88+0.4pp
Under 152.5
49.0%
@ 2.05-0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Be
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 157.5Actual: Over 157.5
Over 157.5
39.0%
@ 2.40-0.8pp
Under 157.5
61.0%
@ 1.57+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Virginia Tech total 83Actual: Virginia Tech over 83
Over 83
45.6%
Under 83
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virginia Tech total 87 · main lineActual: Virginia Tech over 87
Over 87
29.8%
@ 1.85-20.4pp
Under 87
70.2%
@ 1.87+20.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Virginia Tech total 91Actual: Virginia Tech over 91
Over 91
17.3%
Under 91
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercer total 61.5Actual: Mercer over 61.5
Over 61.5
82.8%
@ 1.38+15.1pp
Under 61.5
17.2%
@ 3.10-15.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.62
Mercer total 65.5 · main lineActual: Mercer over 65.5
Over 65.5
70.9%
@ 1.88+20.5pp
Under 65.5
29.1%
@ 1.91-20.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Mercer total 69.5Actual: Mercer under 69.5
Over 69.5
56.0%
@ 2.62+20.0pp
Under 69.5
44.0%
@ 1.50-20.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.52
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Virginia Tech -24Actual: Virginia Tech -24
VIRG -24
11.7%
@ 2.40-27.1pp
MERC +24
88.3%
@ 1.52+27.1pp
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Bet365
2.40
MERC
Bet365
1.52
Spread Virginia Tech -21 · main lineActual: Virginia Tech -21
VIRG -21
17.5%
@ 1.92-32.5pp
MERC +21
82.5%
@ 1.91+32.5pp
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.83
MERC
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.80
Spread Virginia Tech -18Actual: Virginia Tech -18
VIRG -18
25.1%
@ 1.58-33.3pp
MERC +18
74.9%
@ 2.22+33.3pp
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Bet365
1.58
MERC
Bet365
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Virginia TechMercer
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Virginia TechLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#128
L
24-36
24
36
-12
A07/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A12/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H14/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A18/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H21/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
D
44-44
44
44
+0
A01/03
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
35-24
35
24
+11
H04/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A07/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H10/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#322
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H04/11
NCAA
71.2Avg total
36.6Scored
34.6Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 72.5
Last 30 (30)
35.4
33.7
69.1
+1.6
53%
40%
Last 30 at home (17)
38.1
31.9
69.9
+6.2
71%
47%
Last 30 away (13)
31.8
36.2
68.0
-4.3
31%
31%
Last 10 (10)
36.6
34.6
71.2
+2.0
60%
40%
Last 5 (5)
36.6
34.8
71.4
+1.8
40%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)
29.2
36.6
65.9
-7.4
12%
25%
vs Similar (14)
36.8
34.6
71.4
+2.1
50%
57%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)
39.0
29.2
68.2
+9.8
100%
25%
This opponent (Mercer) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Virginia Tech) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Virginia Tech win
VIRG win
no forecast
@ 1.15
MERC win
no forecast
@ 5.50
2nd half Spread Virginia Tech -9.5 · main lineActual: Mercer +9.5
VIRG -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
MERC +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Over 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Virginia Tech (regulation)
VIRG
no forecast
@ 1.17
Draw
no forecast
@ 24.00
MERC
no forecast
@ 5.40
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Mercer +19
77.7%
2.25
Pinnacle
2.40
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+37.8pp
Lost
Mercer +19.5
78.2%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
+36.6pp
Lost
Mercer +20
80.2%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
1.95
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Lost
Mercer +20.5
80.7%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.09
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.93
-
+34.8pp
Lost
Mercer +17
72.0%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+34.5pp
Lost
Mercer +18.5
75.6%
2.19
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.15
-
-
-
+33.4pp
Lost
Mercer +18
74.9%
2.22
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
-
+33.3pp
Lost
Mercer +17.5
72.8%
2.33
Betano
2.37
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
+33.3pp
Lost
Mercer +21
82.5%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+32.5pp
Lost
Mercer +21.5
82.9%
1.83
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
+32.0pp
Lost
Mercer +22
84.7%
1.76
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+31.7pp
Lost
Mercer +22.5
85.0%
1.71
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.71
Bet365
1.66
-
+29.8pp
Lost
Mercer +23
86.6%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+29.5pp
Lost
Mercer +23.5
86.8%
1.60
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+29.0pp
Lost
Mercer +24.5
88.5%
1.52
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+27.5pp
Lost
Mercer +24
88.3%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Lost
Mercer +25
89.8%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+25.6pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 88
73.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 89.5
77.7%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
-
-
+22.4pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 88.5
74.6%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.81
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.62
-
-
+22.3pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 87.5
71.2%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
+21.9pp
Lost
Mercer over 65.5
70.9%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+20.5pp
Won
Virginia Tech under 87
70.2%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 90.5
80.5%
1.51
Bet365
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.45
-
-
+19.7pp
Lost
Mercer over 64.5
74.2%
1.70
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Won
Mercer over 62.5
80.2%
1.48
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Virginia Tech under 92.5
85.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 91.5
83.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 94.5
89.6%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 93.5
87.7%
1.28
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Lost
Mercer over 61.5
82.8%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+15.1pp
Won
Mercer over 63.5
77.3%
1.52
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Virginia Tech under 96.5
92.8%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Won
Mercer over 60.5
85.2%
1.30
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
+13.7pp
Won
Virginia Tech under 95.5
91.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
Mercer over 58.5
89.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Virginia Tech under 98.5
95.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Mercer over 59.5
87.4%
1.21
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Virginia Tech under 97.5
94.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Virginia Tech under 100.5
96.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Mercer over 56.5
92.6%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Virginia Tech under 99.5
96.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Virginia Tech under 102.5
98.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Mercer over 57.5
91.1%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Virginia Tech under 101.5
97.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Mercer over 54.5
95.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Mercer over 52.5
96.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Mercer over 50.5
97.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Mercer over 55.5
93.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Mercer over 51.5
97.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Mercer over 53.5
95.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Mercer over 49.5
98.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Under 179.5
94.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Under 162
71.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Over 127.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Under 174.5
90.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Under 177.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Under 162.5
72.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Lost
Over 129.5
92.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Over 132.5
89.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
Under 164.5
75.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Under 169.5
84.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Under 172.5
88.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Over 134.5
87.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Over 142.5
73.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Over 137.5
82.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Under 167.5
81.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Over 139.5
79.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Virginia Tech (regulation)
80.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Virginia Tech over 73.5
80.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Virginia Tech over 74.5
77.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Virginia Tech over 75.5
74.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.0pp
Won
Virginia Tech win
82.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
WilliamHill
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-11.6pp
Won
Virginia Tech -1.5
80.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.0pp
Won
Virginia Tech over 76.5
70.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-13.7pp
Won
Mercer under 77.5
73.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-14.0pp
Won
Mercer under 76.5
70.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-15.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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